工业硅：上游工厂减产，盘面震荡偏强，多晶硅：关注现货成交情况

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upstream factories of industrial silicon have reduced production, and the futures market is oscillating strongly [1]. - Attention should be paid to the spot trading situation of polysilicon [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2605: The closing price is 8,820 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 5 yuan compared to T - 1, an increase of 215 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 225 yuan compared to T - 22. The trading volume is 229,964 lots, with a decrease of 166 lots compared to T - 1, a decrease of 51,289 lots compared to T - 5, and a decrease of 76,978 lots compared to T - 22. The open interest is 231,434 lots, with an increase of 2,946 lots compared to T - 1, a decrease of 7,435 lots compared to T - 5, and an increase of 9,828 lots compared to T - 22 [1]. - PS2605: The closing price is 50,720 yuan/ton, with an increase of 205 yuan compared to T - 1 and an increase of 520 yuan compared to T - 5. The trading volume is 13,443 lots, with an increase of 2,521 lots compared to T - 1 and a decrease of 8,274 lots compared to T - 5. The open interest is 41,291 lots, with a decrease of 2,027 lots compared to T - 1 and a decrease of 4,929 lots compared to T - 5 [1]. 3.1.2 Basis - Industrial silicon: The spot premium or discount (against East China Si5530) is +430 yuan/ton, with an increase of 5 yuan compared to T - 1, a decrease of 215 yuan compared to T - 5, and a decrease of 225 yuan compared to T - 22. The spot premium or discount (against East China Si4210) is +30 yuan/ton, with an increase of 5 yuan compared to T - 1, a decrease of 215 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 1,240 yuan compared to T - 22. The spot premium or discount (against Xinjiang 99 silicon) is -120 yuan/ton, with an increase of 5 yuan compared to T - 1, a decrease of 215 yuan compared to T - 5, and a decrease of 90 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - Polysilicon: The spot premium or discount (against N - type re - feed) is +3,530 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 205 yuan compared to T - 1, a decrease of 1,620 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 9,830 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. 3.1.3 Price - Industrial silicon: Xinjiang 99 silicon is 8,700 yuan/ton, with no change compared to T - 1 and T - 5, and a decrease of 50 yuan compared to T - 22. Yunnan Si4210 is 10,000 yuan/ton, with no change compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [1]. - Polysilicon: N - type re - feed is 54,000 yuan/ton, with no change compared to T - 1, a decrease of 850 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 1,600 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. 3.1.4 Profit - Industrial silicon: The profit of silicon factories (Xinjiang new standard 553) is -2,311.5 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 5 yuan compared to T - 1, a decrease of 215 yuan compared to T - 5, and a decrease of 25 yuan compared to T - 22. The profit of silicon factories (Yunnan new standard 553) is -5,519 yuan/ton, with an increase of 10 yuan compared to T - 1, a decrease of 200 yuan compared to T - 5, and a decrease of 175 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - Polysilicon: The profit of polysilicon enterprises is 9.6 yuan/kg, with an increase of 0.4 yuan compared to T - 1, a decrease of 0.6 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 2.0 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. 3.1.5 Inventory - Industrial silicon: The social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 55.6 tons, with an increase of 0.1 tons compared to T - 5 and 0.1 tons compared to T - 22. The enterprise inventory (sample enterprises) is 21.3 tons, with an increase of 0.56 tons compared to T - 5 and 2.1 tons compared to T - 22. The industry inventory (social inventory + enterprise inventory) is 76.9 tons, with an increase of 0.66 tons compared to T - 5 and 2.16 tons compared to T - 22. The futures warehouse receipt inventory is 6.5 tons, with an increase of 0.0 tons compared to T - 1, an increase of 0.7 tons compared to T - 5, and an increase of 2.0 tons compared to T - 22 [1]. - Polysilicon: The factory inventory is 33.0 tons, with an increase of 0.9 tons compared to T - 5 and 2.7 tons compared to T - 22 [1]. 3.1.6 Raw Material Cost - Silicon ore: Xinjiang is 320 yuan/ton, with no change compared to T - 5 and T - 22. Yunnan is 235 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 5 yuan compared to T - 5 and a decrease of 15 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - Washed coking coal: Xinjiang is 1,475 yuan/ton, with no change compared to T - 5 and T - 22. Ningxia is 1,200 yuan/ton, with no change compared to T - 5 and T - 22 [1]. - Petroleum coke: Maoming coke is 1,400 yuan/ton, with no change compared to T - 5 and T - 22. Yangzi coke is 2,340 yuan/ton, with no change compared to T - 5 and T - 22 [1]. - Electrode: Graphite electrode is 12,450 yuan/ton, with no change compared to T - 5 and T - 22. Carbon electrode is 7,200 yuan/ton, with no change compared to T - 5 and T - 22 [1]. 3.1.7 Polysilicon (Photovoltaic) - Price: The price of N - type re - feed is 54,000 yuan/ton, with no change compared to T - 1, a decrease of 850 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 1,600 yuan compared to T - 22. Trichlorosilane is 3,425 yuan/ton, with no change compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22. Silicon powder (99 silicon) is 9,800 yuan/ton, with no change compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22. Silicon wafers (N - type - 210mm) are 1.63 yuan/piece, with a decrease of 0.02 yuan compared to T - 1, a decrease of 0.06 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 0.13 yuan compared to T - 22. Battery cells (TOPCon - 210mm) are 0.415 yuan/watt, with an increase of 0.01 yuan compared to T - 1 and T - 5, and a decrease of 0.71 yuan compared to T - 22. Components (N - type - 210mm, centralized) are 0.713 yuan/watt, with no change compared to T - 1, an increase of 0.004 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 0.025 yuan compared to T - 22. Photovoltaic glass (3.2mm) is 17.5 yuan/cubic meter, with no change compared to T - 1, T - 5, and a decrease of 1.5 yuan compared to T - 22. Photovoltaic - grade EVA price is 9,000 yuan/ton, with no change compared to T - 1, an increase of 299 yuan compared to T - 5, and a decrease of 65 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - Profit: The profit of polysilicon enterprises is 9.6 yuan/kg, with an increase of 0.4 yuan compared to T - 1, a decrease of 0.6 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 2.0 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. 3.1.8 Organic Silicon - Price: DMC is 13,900 yuan/ton, with no change compared to T - 1, an increase of 50 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 300 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - Profit: The profit of DMC enterprises is 1,902 yuan/ton, with no change compared to T - 1, a decrease of 30 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 186 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. 3.1.9 Aluminum Alloy - Price: ADC12 is 24,000 yuan/ton, with an increase of 150 yuan compared to T - 1, an increase of 100 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 2,200 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - Profit: The profit of recycled aluminum enterprises is -110 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 220 yuan compared to T - 1, an increase of 20 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 20 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On January 22, local time, Tesla CEO Elon Musk attended the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, and had a dialogue with BlackRock CEO Larry Fink. Musk announced the commercialization schedule of Optimus humanoid robots: some robots are currently performing simple tasks in Tesla factories, they will be able to handle more complex industrial tasks by the end of this year, and will be sold to the public by the end of next year. In the field of autonomous driving, Musk said that it is a solved problem. Tesla has launched the Robotaxi service in some cities and will widely promote it in the United States by the end of this year. Supervised FSD is expected to be approved in Europe next month, and the approval process in China is similar [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 1, and the trend intensity of polysilicon is 0. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, where -2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [3].