南华股指周报：中小盘领优格局能否延续？-20260126

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - This week, the A-share market showed a significant differentiation pattern of "small and medium-cap stocks leading, large-cap stocks under pressure", with the CSI 500 index performing the best. The trading volume of the two markets first declined, then stabilized, and then increased again, maintaining a high level of trading activity. Policy support for emerging industries and advanced manufacturing, along with high market risk appetite and capital preference for small and medium-cap stocks, drove the continuous strengthening of small and medium-cap stock indices. Meanwhile, cooling operations such as multiple surges in broad-based ETFs affected large-cap stocks more significantly, exacerbating the divergence between large and small-cap indices [2]. - Next week, focus on the Fed's January interest rate meeting, with the market expecting the interest rate to remain unchanged, and the core point being the statement on the interest rate cut path. The ratio of CSI 300 to CSI 500 has reached a five-year low. Historically, policy orientation, structural changes in fundamentals, and shifts in capital preferences are the core drivers of style switching. In the short term, the leading pattern of the CSI 500 is expected to continue, and a neutral to bullish approach is maintained, but beware of the technical correction risk caused by the local overheating of small and medium-cap stock indices [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Analysis - This week, the CSI 300 index rose by 0.62%, the SSE 50 index by 1.54%, the CSI 500 index by 4.34%, and the CSI 1000 index by 2.89%. The CSI 500 index performed the best [7]. - The trading volume of the two markets first declined, then stabilized, and then increased again, maintaining a high level of trading activity [2]. - The recent trade conflict between the US and Europe over Greenland has affected European stock markets, but the impact on A-shares is limited. A-shares maintain a relatively independent operation rhythm due to China's industrial chain integrity, policy support, and a rich policy toolbox [30]. 2. Key Focus and Strategy Recommendations 2.1 Fed's January Interest Rate Meeting - The market expects the Fed to keep the interest rate unchanged in January, and the core focus is on the statement of the interest rate cut path. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate at 275 - 300 basis points in January 2026 is 97.2% [2][31]. 2.2 The Ratio of CSI 300 to CSI 500 Reaches a Five - Year Low: Can the Structural Market Continue? - The ratio of CSI 300 to CSI 500 has reached a five - year low. In September 2021, August 2021, and other periods, there were also significant market trends related to the CSI 500 and CSI 300. Policy orientation, structural changes in fundamentals, and shifts in capital preferences are the core drivers of style switching [2][32][34]. 2.3 Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - In the short term, the leading pattern of the CSI 500 is expected to continue. It is recommended to maintain a neutral to bullish approach, but beware of the technical correction risk caused by the local overheating of small and medium - cap stock indices [2].