LPG液化气周报：国际货源偏紧，化工需求走弱-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, LPG prices first declined and then rose. In the first half - week, the decline was due to the fading of geopolitical sentiment and weak international oil prices. In the second half - week, the prices were driven up by the sharp rebound of oil and natural gas prices, the reduction of warrant pressure, and the strengthening of downstream propylene and polypropylene prices. The international propane supply remains tight, and the CP price fluctuates upward. Looking ahead, the market is mixed with long and short factors, and prices will tend to consolidate or slightly correct [4]. - For trading strategies, the unilateral view is wide - range oscillation; for arbitrage, it is recommended to short the spread between LPG and crude oil; for options, it is advisable to wait and see [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Comprehensive Analysis: LPG prices had a volatile week. The supply from refineries increased slightly this period, but the arrivals were still low. The combustion demand was supported, but the chemical demand weakened significantly, showing the negative feedback of high - priced propane. The market is expected to be range - bound or slightly decline [4]. - Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Wide - range oscillation [5]. - Arbitrage: Short the spread between LPG and crude oil [5]. - Options: Wait and see [5]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - The crude oil market is in a state of mixed long - and - short factors and sideways consolidation. The cold wave in Europe and the US has a short - term positive impact on the market through the demand for heating fuel. Geopolitical risks have eased, and EIA data shows an increase in US commercial crude oil and gasoline inventories. The IEA slightly raised the global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 but emphasized a significant supply surplus in the first quarter [8][10]. 3.2.2 Supply - The utilization rate of domestic major refineries increased by 1.54% to 78.78%, reaching a high level for the same period, mainly due to the increased load of Yunnan Petrochemical and the start - up of Shanghai Petrochemical. The utilization rate of independent refineries decreased slightly by 0.27% to 60.75%, at a historically low level, due to insufficient crude oil reserves in some refineries. Overall, the supply increased this week, and it may continue to rise next week [13]. 3.2.3 Demand - The chemical demand weakened significantly. The PDH operating rate dropped by 10.82% to 62.25%, at a low historical level due to the shutdown of some devices. The MTBE operating rate increased slightly by 0.44% to 68.01%. The capacity utilization rate of alkylation oil decreased by 0.96 percentage points. The negative feedback of high - priced overseas propane on the demand side became evident [16]. 3.2.4 Inventory - Port inventories decreased due to a slight reduction in arrivals and weakened chemical demand. Factory inventories increased because of heavy snowfall and increased supply, which led to poor sales in some areas. The inventory trends of tertiary stations in different regions were divergent [20]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Price Data - Relevant price data includes Brent, WTI, CP, FEI, and LPG futures prices, showing their trends over different time periods [24]. 3.3.2 Spread Data - It shows the spread data between different LPG products, such as the spread between South China civil LPG, East China civil LPG, Shandong ether - post C4, and the futures contract, as well as the seasonal trends of LPG basis [27]. 3.3.3 Disk Profit Data - It presents the import profit of LPG based on CP and FEI, as well as the profit of PDH propylene and polypropylene [30]. 3.3.4 Spot Profit Data - It shows the import profit of LPG based on FOB, CFR, and the profit of PDH propylene and polypropylene, as well as the profit of isomerization etherification and dehydrogenation etherification [33]. 3.3.5 Supply Data - It includes the capacity utilization rates of major and independent refineries, LPG commercial volume, crude oil processing volume, and the maintenance schedules of domestic major refineries and PDH devices [36][38][40]. 3.3.6 Inventory Data - It shows the inventory data of LPG ports, the capacity utilization rate of tertiary stations in different regions, and the port capacity ratio [46].