铁矿周报：终端需求低位，矿价震荡运行-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, iron ore prices slightly declined from their high levels. The current market is mainly dominated by macro and capital factors, and the macro sentiment has cooled this week, with iron ore prices being moderately overvalued [4]. - On the supply side, there has been a significant continuous increase, and the pattern of loose supply has continued. The port inventory of imported iron ore has been increasing rapidly. On the demand side, although the new construction of real - estate in December improved month - on - month, it is still at a low level. The growth rates of infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment have further declined month - on - month, and there is no significant improvement in domestic terminal steel demand [4]. - In the first half of the year, demand may fall short of expectations. Since the second half of 2025, domestic steel demand has been continuously declining. Against the high - base background of the first half of 2025, domestic steel demand is expected to contribute a decline in the first half of 2026. The weakening of the domestic iron ore fundamentals is expected to continue, and the high valuation of iron ore is unlikely to last [4][13]. - Overall, the rapid weakening of domestic steel demand is expected to dominate the medium - term iron ore prices. The fundamentals of iron ore itself have undergone significant changes. As iron ore prices decline from high levels, short - term macro and capital disturbances will increase, and iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate mainly [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Logic Analysis: The market is dominated by macro and capital. Macro sentiment has cooled, and iron ore is moderately overvalued. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. The weakening of fundamentals is expected to continue, and high valuation is hard to sustain [4]. - Trading Strategies: - Unilateral: Fluctuate [4] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [4] - Options: Wait and see [4] 3.2 Iron Ore Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Global Iron Ore Shipment - In 2026 to date, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments is 31.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.3% or 11.7 million tons. Among them, Australia's weekly shipments are 17.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7% or 3.6 million tons, and Brazil's weekly shipments are 6.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15% or 3.6 million tons [7]. - Among the mainstream mines in Australia and Brazil, Rio Tinto has a year - on - year increase of 14% or 2.6 million tons, BHP has a year - on - year decrease of 2% or 0.3 million tons, FMG has a year - on - year increase of 6.5% or 0.7 million tons, and VALE has a year - on - year increase of 20% or 2.6 million tons [7]. - In 2025, the import of iron ore was 1.26 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 24 million tons. Since the third quarter of last year, the year - on - year increase in domestic imported iron ore has been continuously increasing [7]. 3.2.2 Non - mainstream Iron Ore Shipment - From 2026 to date, the weekly average of non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore shipments is 6.54 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 38% or 5.3 million tons. The weekly average of non - mainstream iron ore shipments in Australia is 2.58 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15% or 1 million tons, and the weekly average of non - mainstream iron ore shipments in Brazil is 1.57 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2% or 0.1 million tons [9]. - Non - Australian and non - Brazilian global shipments may decline (except for Simandou). From 2023 - 2025, non - Australian and non - Brazilian mines have continuously contributed increments, with an average annual increment of over 20 million tons for three consecutive years [9]. - The Simandou mining area is expected to contribute most of the increment in 2026, with an annual increment of about 20 million tons. It is expected to enter the fast - lane of production release in 2027, but in 2026, it is still in the production ramping - up stage [9]. 3.2.3 Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory - This week, the port inventory of imported iron ore has continued to increase significantly, and the steel mill inventory has increased slightly. As a result, the total inventory of domestic imported iron ore has increased by 3.5 million tons month - on - month. In the past more than a month, the total inventory of imported iron ore has increased by more than 17 million tons. The current port inventory of imported iron ore is at the highest level in the past 6 years, and the domestic iron ore supply - demand pattern of looseness has continued [11]. - The current total domestic iron element inventory is at a high level in the past 6 years, basically the same as in 2022 [11]. 3.2.4 Terminal Steel Demand - In December 2025, the new construction of real - estate decreased by 19% year - on - year, and the sales area decreased by 17% year - on - year. Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 12% year - on - year, and the growth rate of manufacturing investment decreased by 11% year - on - year. The real - estate market has improved month - on - month but is still at a low level, while the growth rates of infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment have declined significantly month - on - month [13]. - In terms of overseas demand, from January to November 2025, overseas iron ore consumption decreased by 1% or 10 million tons year - on - year, but overseas iron element consumption increased by 3% or 28 million tons year - on - year. Since the second quarter, overseas iron element consumption has been at a high level year - on - year and has continuously contributed increments. Among them, India's crude steel production from January to November increased by 10% or 14 million tons year - on - year, and it is expected to contribute an increment of 15 million tons for the whole year. Overseas India's crude steel demand remains at a relatively high level [13]. 3.3 Iron Ore Fundamental Data Tracking 3.3.1 Imported Iron Ore Port Price - The report provides data on the price index of Platts iron ore, the price of PB powder at Qingdao Port, the price of Carajas fines at Qingdao Port, and the spread between high, medium, and low - grade powder and the cash profit of steel mills [18]. 3.3.2 Imported Iron Ore Port Profit - The report shows the import profits of PB powder, Carajas fines, Super Special fines, Jinbuba, PB lump, and FMG [20]. 3.3.3 East China Mainstream Steel Mill Profit - It includes the cash profit of East China rebar, the cash profit of East China hot - rolled coil, the cost of East China hot - rolled coil, the cost of East China billet, and the cash cost of East China rebar [22]. 3.3.4 Domestic and Overseas US Dollar Spread - It involves the spread between SGX main contract and DCE contracts (converted to PB pricing), the premium rate of Singapore iron ore over domestic iron ore, and the spread between East China hot metal and recycled steel [24]. 3.3.5 Iron Ore Main Contract Basis and Inter - period Spread - It includes the basis of the optimal delivery product against the 01, 05, and 09 contracts, and the 9/1, 1/5, and 5/9 spreads [26]. 3.3.6 Global Four Major Mines' Shipment - The report presents the global shipment volumes of Rio Tinto, VALE, BHP, FMG, and CSN, as well as the arrival volume at 45 ports [29]. 3.3.7 Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory - It shows the inventory of powder, lump, pellet, non - trade, iron concentrate, and non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore at the port [31].