铝产业链周度报告-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum prices are expected to continue high - level volatility in the short term, but there is still support in the long - term fundamentals [53]. - The aluminum alloy price will follow the electrolytic aluminum price and may experience high - level shock adjustment [50]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Report Summary - The report analyzes the aluminum industry from multiple aspects, including economic data at home and abroad, supply and demand of raw materials, production and inventory of aluminum products, and downstream consumption. It points out that the aluminum market is affected by various factors, with short - term price fluctuations and long - term positive fundamentals [53]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - Bullish factors: Stable operation of domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity and high enthusiasm of precious metal funds [8]. - Bearish factors: Continuous accumulation of social inventory, further weakening of consumption near the Spring Festival, and accumulation of inventories in domestic and foreign exchanges [8]. 3.3 Data Analysis - Macroeconomic data: In the US, the GDP in Q3 2025 had an annualized quarter - on - quarter growth of 4.4%, the core PCE price index in November increased moderately, and the number of initial jobless claims was 200,000. In China, the GDP in 2025 increased by 5% year - on - year, and the central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy [11][14]. - Raw material supply: Domestic bauxite supply is tight, with a 4.21% year - on - year increase in cumulative output from January to November 2025, but a 5.26% year - on - year decline in November. Overseas bauxite supply may be relatively loose, with China's imports in December 2025 reaching 14.67 million tons, and Guinea's supply stabilizing [16][19]. - Alumina production: In 2025, domestic alumina added 9.8 million tons of new capacity, and it is expected to add 8.6 million tons in 2026. The supply surplus will exceed 10 million tons. Overseas, 8.5 million tons of new capacity is planned from 2025 - 2026, with 5.5 million tons expected in 2026 [23]. - Electrolytic aluminum production: In December 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.9% year - on - year, and the aluminum - water ratio decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 76.5%. At the end of December, the national electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 383,000 tons month - on - month [26]. - Downstream processing: The average weekly operating rate of downstream processing enterprises increased by 0.2% to 60.2% due to pre - Spring Festival stocking. The operating rate of aluminum wire and cable remained stable at 59.6%, aluminum plate and strip increased by 1% to 66%, aluminum foil increased by 0.7% to 71.4%, and aluminum profiles decreased by 0.9% to 47.9%. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy remained stable at 58% [28]. - Inventory situation: LME aluminum inventory accumulated to 509,275 tons, and SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 29.23% to 185,879 tons in the week of January 16. As of January 19, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major Chinese markets was 764,000 tons, an increase of 15,000 tons from last Thursday [34][37]. - Price situation: On January 19, the average price premium of Shanghai Wumaotrade aluminum was - 160 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum 0 - 3 premium was 18.98 US dollars/ton, with both premium ranges expanding [39]. - Recycled aluminum: In December 2025, domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 41,800 tons month - on - month. Small and medium - sized aluminum plants faced difficulties in raw material procurement, and the operating rate of small enterprises was only 12.74%. As of January 15, the operating rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry was 58%, remaining flat week - on - week [41][42]. - Aluminum alloy inventory: As of January 23, the weekly social inventory of Chinese aluminum alloy was 67,000 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons from last week, and the in - plant inventory was 65,100 tons, an increase of 4,900 tons from last week [46]. 3.4后市研判 - Aluminum prices are expected to continue high - level volatility in the short term, but the long - term fundamentals are positive with support [53].