期货市场交易指引2026年01月26日-20260126

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to trade in a range [1] - Black Building Materials: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, and waiting and seeing for glass [1] - Non - ferrous Metals: Waiting and seeing or holding long positions lightly and rolling for copper; strengthening waiting and seeing for aluminum; waiting and seeing for nickel; range trading or taking profit on previous long positions for tin; range trading for gold; bullish trend for silver; range - bound oscillation for lithium carbonate [1] - Energy and Chemicals: Range trading for PVC, caustic soda, benzene, rubber, urea, methanol; weak oscillation for polyolefins; waiting and seeing for soda ash [1] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Oscillatory adjustment for cotton and cotton yarn; weak oscillation for apples and jujubes [1] - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: Short - selling opportunities on rebounds for hogs; not advisable to chase short positions in the short term for eggs; being cautious about chasing high prices and waiting for rebounds to hedge at high prices for corn; shorting on rallies for soybean meal; weak oscillation for rapeseed oil, limited rebounds for soybean oil and palm oil [1] Core Views - Geopolitical disturbances are increasing, which strengthens the precious metals sector. Stock indices may trade in a range, and government bonds are expected to oscillate. The coal market has a wait - and - see sentiment due to weak fundamentals. Rebar is in a short - term range - bound state. Glass is expected to oscillate weakly. Copper is affected by the game between macro - level support and weak fundamentals. Aluminum may continue high - level adjustments. Nickel is affected by various factors and is recommended to be observed. Tin supply is tight, and it is recommended for range trading. Silver and gold are affected by geopolitical and economic factors, with their medium - term price centers moving up. Lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate strongly. PVC may have bottomed out. Caustic soda has short - term delivery pressure. Benzene styrene has a high valuation and is recommended to be cautious about chasing up. Rubber has cost support and may continue to rise. Urea supply is increasing, and prices are expected to oscillate. Methanol is affected by supply and demand and geopolitical factors. Polyolefins are expected to oscillate weakly. Soda ash has supply - demand contradictions, and it is recommended to wait and see. Cotton and cotton yarn have long - term optimistic expectations. Apples and jujubes are in a weak oscillation state. Hogs are in a bottom - building stage, with different strategies for different periods. Eggs are not advisable to chase short positions in the short term. Corn is in a short - term balance and has a loose supply - demand pattern in the medium to long term. Soybean meal has different trends for different contracts. Oils have different trends, with rapeseed oil being weak and soybean and palm oil having limited rebounds [1][5][6][8][10][11][13][14][15][16][17][19][20][21][22][24][25][26][27][30][33][34][35][36][37][43][44] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Stock Indices: Medium - to long - term bullish, suggesting buying on dips. Geopolitical disturbances increase, and the precious metals sector strengthens, causing stock indices to potentially trade in a range [1][5] - Government Bonds: Expected to trade in a range. The long - end and ultra - long - end of government bonds face resistance in further decline, while short - end varieties have strong allocation enthusiasm [1][6] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: Short - term trading. The coal market has a wait - and - see sentiment due to weak fundamentals, with supply disturbances potentially limiting the downside, but demand weakness is the dominant factor [8] - Rebar: Range trading. The price rebounded on Friday, with a slightly low static valuation. In the short term, it is in a range - bound state due to a short - term policy vacuum and small supply - demand contradictions [8] - Glass: Waiting and seeing. The price is expected to oscillate weakly within the range of 1050 - 1070. The manufacturer's shipping speed slows down, and the market lacks upward momentum [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Waiting and seeing or holding long positions lightly and rolling. The price is in a high - level oscillation, with strong macro - level support but weak fundamentals. It is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of long - position profit - taking before the Spring Festival [11] - Aluminum: Strengthening waiting and seeing. The price may continue high - level adjustments due to factors such as changes in supply and demand and macro - level sentiment [13] - Nickel: Waiting and seeing. Affected by factors such as Indonesia's quota reduction and weak fundamentals, the price has risen, but it is recommended to wait and see as the market has fully priced in [14] - Tin: Range trading or taking profit on previous long positions. The supply is tight, and the downstream maintains rigid demand. It is recommended to pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand [15][16] - Silver: Bullish trend. Affected by geopolitical and economic factors, the medium - term price center moves up, and it is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about opening new positions [16] - Gold: Range trading. Affected by geopolitical and economic factors, the medium - term price center moves up, and it is recommended to trade in a range and be cautious about chasing high prices [16][17] - Lithium Carbonate: Range - bound oscillation. The supply and demand are both strong, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. It is necessary to pay attention to the disturbance of Yichun's mining end [17] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Range trading. The bottom may have been reached. The supply - demand situation is still weak, but there are opportunities for structural upgrading. It is recommended to take a long - term low - buying approach [17][19] - Caustic Soda: Waiting and seeing. There is short - term delivery pressure, and the upside is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to supply - side adjustments and other factors [19] - Benzene Styrene: Range trading. The price has rebounded, but the valuation is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up and pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes [20][21] - Rubber: Range trading. The cost support is strong, and the price may continue to rise. It is necessary to pay attention to inventory and downstream demand [20][21] - Urea: Range trading. The supply is increasing, and the price is expected to oscillate within the range of 1730 - 1830. It is necessary to pay attention to factors such as compound fertilizer production and export policies [22][23] - Methanol: Range trading. The supply in the inland area recovers, and the demand is mixed. The price in some areas is strong due to geopolitical and supply factors [24] - Polyolefins: Weak oscillation. The cost support is strengthened, but the supply increases and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [24][25] - Soda Ash: Waiting and seeing. The supply - demand contradiction is relieved, and the downside is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [26] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Oscillatory adjustment. The long - term expectation is optimistic, but it is recommended to be cautious in the short term [27] - Apples: Weak oscillation. The Spring Festival stocking is in progress, but the trading of farmers' goods is slow, and the prices in some areas are loose [27] - Jujubes: Weak oscillation. The acquisition in Xinjiang is almost over, and the market trading is stable [29][30] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Hogs: Short - selling opportunities on rebounds. The supply pressure is large in the short term, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, the production capacity is being reduced, but it is still above the equilibrium level, and it is recommended to hedge at high prices [30][31][33] - Eggs: Not advisable to chase short positions in the short term. The short - term price may rise seasonally, but the supply is sufficient. In the long term, the production capacity needs time to clear, and it is necessary to pay attention to external factors [33][34] - Corn: Being cautious about chasing high prices and waiting for rebounds to hedge at high prices. The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and the medium - to long - term supply - demand pattern is loose [35][36] - Soybean Meal: Shorting on rallies. The short - term support is strong, but the long - term price is under pressure. Different strategies are recommended for different contracts [36] - Oils: Weak oscillation for rapeseed oil, limited rebounds for soybean and palm oil. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up for soybean and palm oil and pay attention to spread trading [37][43][44]