华宝期货晨报铝锭-20260126

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3][4][5] 2) Core Views - For building materials, the price is expected to move in an oscillatory and consolidative manner, with the focus shifting downward and showing a weak performance [2][4] - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to be strong at a high level in the short - term, showing a strong oscillatory trend [2][5] 3) Summary by Related Contents Building Materials - Production Suspension: Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a production suspension during the Spring Festival from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 stopped production on January 5th, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3][4] - Real - estate Transaction: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4] - Market Situation: The price of building materials continued to decline oscillatory yesterday, reaching a new low. In a situation of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, with low enthusiasm for winter storage and weak price support [4] - Later - stage Concerns: Macro - policies and downstream demand [4] Aluminum Ingots - Macroeconomic Factors: Due to frictions between the US and NATO on the Greenland issue, sanctions on Iran, concerns about the Fed's independence, and uncertainties in tariffs, the US dollar is under pressure, and the overall non - ferrous metals are running strongly [3][5] - Supply - side Situation: In the north, some mining areas have reduced production due to weather. In the Henan Xin'an area, bauxite production was suspended due to blizzards and is now gradually resuming. The supply of ore has decreased by about 80% and is gradually recovering. In the south, domestic ore production is stable, and the price of domestic ore is expected to remain stable in the short - term [4] - Industry Operation: The overall aluminum processing start - up rate was 60.9%, up 0.7 percentage points from last week. Different sub - industries have different situations, with some affected by environmental protection, weather, etc. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic main consumption areas reached 777,000 tons on January 26, an increase of 28,000 tons from last Monday [4] - Price Outlook: The price of aluminum is expected to be strong at a high level in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - events, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [5]