煤焦：蒙煤通关环比下降，盘面震荡运行

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Recently, the overall supply of coal and coke has increased month - on - month, the downstream replenishment intensity is average, the coal and coke spot market has weak rebound, and some coal types have turned to decline. The futures market lacks upward drivers, so investors should operate with caution [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Last week, the coal and coke futures prices first declined and then rose, with a slight weekly decline. The spot market rose and then stabilized, with Mongolian 5 raw coal leading the decline by about 50 yuan/ton. Coke enterprises planned to raise coke prices, but downstream resistance was strong, and the price increase was still in the game and not fully implemented [2] Supply Side - Coal supply is generally strong. This month, coal mines have gradually resumed production. Last week, the output of coking raw coal and clean coal increased to 1.994 million tons and 770,000 tons respectively. The raw coal at mines continued to increase in inventory, and the clean coal changed from inventory decline to a small increase. Downstream coke and steel enterprises slowed down the raw material procurement rhythm [2] - In the import aspect, last week, the daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 158,800 tons, a decrease of 37,000 tons compared with the previous week. The port inventory remained at a relatively high level. The overall arrival volume of seaborne coal in January decreased compared with December last year [2] - In December 2025, imported coking coal was 13.7698 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.31% and a year - on - year increase of 28.57%, reaching a record high for a single - month import volume. The annual import volume was 118.6257 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6269 million tons, a decline of 2.97%. Among them, Mongolian coal imports in December were 6.7175 million tons, and the cumulative annual imports were 60.0739 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.2816 million tons, an increase of 5.8% [2] Demand Side - The profitability rate of steel mills is acceptable, rising to about 40%. Last week, the blast furnace operating rate remained stable, and the daily average pig iron output was 2.281 million tons, a slight increase of 90,000 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 265,000 tons compared with the same period last year [2]