宝城期货橡胶早报-20260126

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Both Shanghai Rubber (RU) and Synthetic Rubber (BR) are expected to run in a strong - biased manner, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being strong - biased [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - Price Trends: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: strong - biased; Overall reference view: strong - biased operation [1][5] - Core Logic: Domestic Yunnan and Hainan natural rubber producing areas are in the off - season, reducing the supply pressure of domestic full - latex rubber. However, Southeast Asia is in the peak tapping season. The domestic automobile production and sales data are positive, and December's heavy - truck sales are better than expected. Due to the increasing bullish atmosphere in the energy and chemical sector, the Shanghai Rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and strong - biased trend on the night of last Friday, with a slight increase in prices. It is expected to maintain this trend on Monday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Price Trends: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: strong - biased; Overall reference view: strong - biased operation [1][7] - Core Logic: The supply and demand of butadiene, the core raw material of domestic synthetic rubber, have tightened recently, driving up its price significantly. Butadiene accounts for over 70% of the production cost of synthetic rubber. The upward oscillation of international crude oil has supported the high price of naphtha, rigidly raising the cost and laying a foundation for the futures price. The operating rate of butadiene plants has dropped to 72%, while the operating rate of downstream rubber plants remains at a high level of 78%, strengthening the expectation of cost increase. The improvement of the supply - demand pattern provides important support. In addition, the natural rubber in Southeast Asia has entered the production - reducing season, and the price difference between Shanghai Rubber standard rubber and synthetic rubber has widened significantly, indirectly supporting the upward shift of the synthetic rubber price center. The domestic synthetic rubber futures maintained a strong - biased stance on the night of last Friday, with a slight increase in prices. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong - biased trend on Monday [7].