高盛-2026年中东和北非地区展望及第四季度预览

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, with a focus on selective stock picking in sectors such as real estate, infrastructure, transportation, and tourism, particularly within the OCU index and the Saudi market [2][7]. Core Insights - Geopolitical risks remain significant, particularly concerning Iran, with the potential for military action still a concern despite reduced immediate threats [1][2]. - Brent crude oil prices are projected to average $62 per barrel in 2026, leading to a moderate fiscal deficit for Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, with net borrowing needs estimated at approximately $160 billion [1][2]. - Saudi Arabia is shifting its investment focus from traditional real estate to artificial intelligence, aiming to become a key player in the global AI supply chain through initiatives like the U-Maine platform [1][4]. - Bahrain's government has proposed fiscal reforms, including subsidy cuts and corporate tax implementation, to balance its fiscal accounts, although the success of these reforms remains uncertain [1][5]. - Egypt's economic outlook is generally positive, with improved external financing conditions and a downward trend in inflation, but risks related to potential policy reversals post-IMF program and geopolitical tensions persist [1][6]. Summary by Sections Geopolitical and Oil Market Influences - The economic outlook for the MENA region is heavily influenced by geopolitical factors, particularly the situation in Iran, and the oil market, with a forecasted fiscal deficit for GCC countries [2][8]. Saudi Arabia's Economic Transition - Saudi Arabia is making significant investments in AI and data centers, indicating a strategic pivot towards emerging technologies while maintaining stable domestic spending [1][4]. Bahrain's Fiscal Reforms - Bahrain's proposed reforms aim to improve fiscal health, but historical challenges in policy implementation raise concerns about their effectiveness [1][5]. Egypt's Economic Prospects - Egypt shows a favorable economic outlook with strong external financing and decreasing inflation, but caution is advised due to potential policy shifts and geopolitical risks [1][6]. Stock Market Strategies - The report emphasizes a selective approach to stock picking in the MENA region, particularly in sectors benefiting from social reforms and capital expenditure, while highlighting the challenges in the broader market [2][7].