银河期货每日早盘观察-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is currently in a state of high activity with a strong upward trend, especially for the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices. The market成交 remains high, and the upward momentum is expected to continue. However, there are also potential risks, such as a reversal in market liquidity, a burst of the US AI bubble, and lower - than - expected economic growth [20]. - In different commodity sectors: - Agricultural products: Overall, the supply and demand situation varies. For example, protein meal faces supply pressure, while sugar has supply - side issues both domestically and internationally. Oils and fats are in a state of wide - range oscillation [25][28][31]. - Metals: Precious metals like gold and silver are strongly influenced by geopolitical factors and are expected to maintain a strong upward trend. Base metals have different trends, such as copper being in a high - level consolidation phase, and iron ore having a weakening fundamental outlook [70][77][65]. - Energy and chemicals: Crude oil is affected by geopolitical risks and is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish. Other products like asphalt, fuel oil, and LPG also have their own supply - demand and price characteristics [120][122][127]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Financial Derivatives - Stock Index Futures: The IC and IM indices are accelerating upwards. The market enthusiasm is high, and the upward trend is expected to continue. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are favored. Trading strategies include going long on IM and IC in the medium - to - long term, and using grid trading for IF and IH in the short term [18][20]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Economic data is mixed, and the central bank's attitude towards liquidity is positive. It is recommended to partially take profits on long positions in TL and consider short - selling the basis of 30Y active bonds [22][23]. Agricultural Products - Protein Meal: Supply pressure is increasing, and the overall market is declining. The US soybean market is under pressure due to a generally loose supply - demand situation, while the domestic market may have some support in the short - term but still faces long - term pressure [25][27]. - Sugar: The international sugar price is falling, while the Zhengzhou sugar price is relatively strong. The international sugar market is affected by the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere, while the domestic market is under supply pressure but has some support at low prices [28][30]. - Oils and Fats: The sector is expected to continue wide - range oscillations. Domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the inventory of various oils is in different states. The Malaysian palm oil is expected to continue to reduce production and inventory [31][35]. - Corn/Corn Starch: The northern port spot price is rising, and the market is in a strong - side oscillation. The US corn market is affected by export sales and weather, while the domestic market has a stable spot price in the short - term but still faces pressure [35][37]. - Hogs: The slaughter pressure is improving, and the spot price is gradually rising. However, the overall supply pressure still exists, and the price is still under pressure [38][40]. - Peanuts: The spot price is stable, and the market is oscillating at the bottom. The import volume is decreasing, and the oil mill has a profit. The 05 contract is recommended to go long at low prices [41][43]. - Eggs: As the Spring Festival approaches, the egg price is rising. The supply is gradually reducing production, but the 03 contract may have limited upward space due to the weak demand after the Spring Festival [44][48]. - Apples: The pre - festival sales are good, and the price is firm. The inventory is low, the cost of warehouse receipts is high, and the 5 - month contract price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [50][55]. - Cotton - Cotton Yarn: The sentiment is optimistic, and the cotton price is supported. The sales progress is fast, and the improvement in Sino - US relations and the expected expansion of Xinjiang textile factories' production capacity support the market. The short - term market is expected to oscillate within a range [56][57]. Black Metals - Steel: The demand is marginally weakening, and the steel price continues to oscillate. The steel production and inventory are in a complex state, and the cost is supported. The market is expected to remain oscillating before the Spring Festival [59][60]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The fundamentals are lackluster, and attention should be paid to capital disturbances. The supply of coking coal is not tight, and the downstream replenishment is not strong. The market is expected to oscillate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see or go long at low prices [61][64]. - Iron Ore: The terminal demand is at a low level, and the iron ore price is oscillating. The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the high - valuation situation is expected to be difficult to sustain. The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [65][67]. - Ferroalloys: The valuation is low and there is a need for restoration, and the short - term market is oscillating strongly. The supply and demand of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon are improving marginally, and the cost is supported [67][69]. Non - ferrous Metals - Gold and Silver: Gold has broken through the $5000 mark, and silver has entered the "three - digit" era. Geopolitical factors are the main drivers, and the prices are expected to remain strong in the short - term [70][73]. - Platinum and Palladium: Geopolitical events have led to a rift in trust between Europe and the United States, and the precious metals are strongly rising. Platinum has a stronger upward drive than palladium [74][76]. - Copper: The copper price is in a high - level consolidation phase. The increase in inventory and the uncertainty of tariffs have an impact on the short - term price, but the long - term supply shortage and strong financial attributes support the price [77][79]. - Alumina: The market is mainly oscillating at a low level. The supply has short - term maintenance and production reduction, and the fundamentals are still weak [80][83]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The aluminum price is oscillating and rebounding. The global shortage is more prominent overseas, and the downstream has replenishment sentiment, supporting the price [84]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Driven by risk appetite, the alloy is oscillating and rebounding with the sector. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost supports the price [85][86]. - Zinc: Attention should be paid to the change in domestic social inventory. The supply of zinc concentrate is still in short supply, and the supply of refined zinc is increasing. The market is expected to oscillate and rebound [87][93]. - Lead: There may be support at the bottom. The supply of primary lead is stable, and the production of recycled lead may decline. The demand is weakening, and the price is in a range - bound oscillation [93][97]. - Nickel: The long - term expectation is leading the nickel price to rise. The short - term reality is weak, but the long - term expectation is optimistic. The price is expected to have upward space after high - level consolidation [98][101]. - Stainless Steel: The supply and demand are tight, and the price is firm. The supply of raw materials is short, the inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to remain high [102]. - Industrial Silicon: The news of production reduction is fermenting, but the coking coal is dragging down the market. The short - term market is oscillating strongly. If the production reduction is implemented, the price may rise [104]. - Polysilicon: The spot price is declining, and the short - term futures are under pressure. The high inventory and weak demand may lead to a decline in the spot price, and the futures should be treated with a short - term bearish view [105][106]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price is at a high level, and cautious operation is recommended. The supply may be affected by policies and maintenance, and the demand is supported by pre - holiday stocking. The price may continue to rise, but there are also regulatory risks [110][112]. - Tin: The tin price has increased in volume and broken through. The inventory is increasing, the production is decreasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate widely at a high level [114][116]. Shipping - Container Shipping: The spot freight rate is continuing to decline, and attention should be paid to geopolitical dynamics. The freight rate is in the off - season decline process, and the impact of export tax rebates and geopolitical factors on the market needs to be observed [117][118]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Driven by risk appetite, geopolitical sentiment still exists. Geopolitical factors and cold snaps in Europe and the United States are boosting the price, and the market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [120][121]. - Asphalt: Low inventory and low production support the spot price. The market is following the high - level oscillation of crude oil, and the demand is weakening as the Spring Festival approaches [122][125]. - Fuel Oil: The fundamentals remain weak, and geopolitical factors are the main bullish drivers. The high - sulfur fuel oil fundamentals are expected to be stable and weak in the first quarter, while the low - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing [127][128]. - LPG: International propane is in short supply, and chemical demand is declining. The international market is tight, the supply of domestic liquefied gas is increasing slightly, and the demand for downstream chemicals is decreasing [130]. - Natural Gas: It is expected that the upward space of LNG price is limited, and attention should be paid to the market risk of US HH near the delivery date. The short - term price is supported by cold weather, but the long - term demand growth is slow, and the price is expected to decline [132][134]. - PX & PTA: The capital attention is increasing, and the aromatics sector is in a strong atmosphere. The PX supply is at a high level, and the PTA is affected by cost and capital sentiment [136][138]. - BZ & EB: There are frequent unexpected device problems, and the export transactions are good. The supply of pure benzene is expected to tighten, and the supply of styrene is affected by device problems. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [140][142]. - Ethylene Glycol: Saudi Arabia's maintenance is expected to reduce imports, and the Lianyungang device is switching production. The supply is expected to decrease, and the price is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [143][145]. - Short - fiber: The supply is sufficient, and the terminal demand is weakening. The load is expected to decrease, and the price is following the cost side [146][148]. - Bottle - grade PET: The maintenance is accelerating in late January, and the price is following the cost side. The start - up rate is expected to decrease, and the price is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [149]. - Propylene: The load continues to decline. The supply is affected by device maintenance, and the market supply and demand are supported [150][152]. - Plastics (L & PP): The operation of the rubber and plastics industry is continuously improving. The prices of L and PP are rising, and the industry's profitability is improving [153][154]. - Caustic Soda: The price of caustic soda is weakening. The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The price and the futures market are expected to be weak [155][158]. - PVC: The price continues to rise. The start - up rate is expected to decrease, the export is expected to be strong, and the price is expected to continue to be strong [159][161]. - Soda Ash: The price is oscillating and repairing. The supply is stable, the demand is good, and the price decline is expected to slow down [161][163]. - Glass: The futures price is oscillating. The market is affected by the real - estate situation, and the price is expected to decline with a narrowing range [164][166]. - Methanol: The market is running strongly. The international device start - up rate is declining, and the domestic supply is relatively loose. The market is supported by the overall strength of chemical products [166][168]. - Urea: The market is mainly oscillating. The domestic production is at a high level, the international market has an impact on sentiment, and the market is expected to continue to oscillate [169][171]. - Pulp: The pulp price is oscillating widely. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Chilean fire on the pulp supply. The supply is greater than the demand, and the price is expected to be bullish, but the impact of the fire needs to be observed [172][175]. - Logs: Due to natural disasters in New Zealand, the supply is tightening, and the spot price is slightly strong. The price is affected by supply and demand in different regions, and the long - position should be held [176][180]. - Offset Printing Paper: The inventory is high, and the cultural paper spot price has weak rebound momentum. The supply is still sufficient, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak [180][182]. - Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber: The NR warehouse receipts are reducing inventory, and the tire inventory is increasing. The inventory of different types of rubber is in different states, and the short - position is recommended for RU and NR [183][186]. - Butadiene Rubber: The warehouse receipts are increasing inventory, and the tire inventory is increasing. The inventory is increasing, and the market should be observed [186][189].