国新国证期货早报-20260126

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On January 23, the three major A-share indexes closed up. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.33% to 4136.16 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.79% to 14439.66 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.63% to 3349.50 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 3118.4 billion yuan, an increase of 401.7 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index adjusted and consolidated on January 23, closing at 4702.50, a decrease of 21.21 from the previous day [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On January 23, the weighted index of coke fluctuated strongly, closing at 1724.1, an increase of 43.3 from the previous day [2]. - On January 23, the weighted index of coking coal fluctuated and consolidated, closing at 1163.3 yuan, an increase of 32.0 from the previous day [3]. - For coke, the spot market price at ports is stable. Most coke enterprises maintain normal production, and the cost support is still strong. However, due to the off - season of terminal consumption, steel mills' shipments are weak, and their demand for coke is low [4]. - For coking coal, the price of some coals has changed. The supply is gradually recovering, and the downstream demand has some support, but the procurement enthusiasm of some enterprises has slowed down [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - The 2025/26 global sugar production is expected to reach 189.3 million tons, a strong increase from 180.97 million tons in 2024/25. Affected by this, the US sugar fluctuated lower last Friday. Speculators continued to increase their net short positions in ICE raw sugar futures and options [4]. Rubber - Due to the large short - term increase, the Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated and adjusted slightly higher on the night of January 22. As of January 23, the inventory and futures warehouse receipts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber have changed [5]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on January 23, the closing price of the CBOT soybean main contract was 1067.5 cents per bushel, an increase of 0.33% from the previous day. Brazil's soybean harvest has started, and the export volume is expected to be large. Domestically, the main contract of soybean meal M2505 closed at 2751 yuan/ton on January 23, a decrease of 0.61% from the previous day. The inventory decline provides some support for the price [5]. Live Pigs - On January 23, the main contract of live pigs LH2603 closed at 11600 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.13%. The supply pressure is increasing in the short term, and the demand has some support, but the medium - term supply pressure is still large [5]. Palm Oil - On January 23, the palm oil futures price showed a profit - taking trend during the day but jumped up at night. The main contract P2605 closed above 9000 yuan for the first time since October last year. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board will launch an official reference price for used cooking oil in Q1 2026 [5]. Shanghai Copper - On the night of January 22, the main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 102830 yuan/ton, a sharp increase of 2.21%, hitting a recent high. The futures are stronger than the spot. The tight supply at the mine end, good macro - data, and a weak US dollar boost the price [5]. Iron Ore - On January 23, the main contract of iron ore 2605 fluctuated and rose, with a gain of 1.21%, closing at 795 yuan. The shipments from Australia and Brazil and domestic arrivals have decreased, and the port inventory is accumulating. The short - term price is in a volatile trend [5]. Asphalt - On January 23, the main contract of asphalt 2603 fluctuated and closed up, with a gain of 0.68%, closing at 3236 yuan. The refinery supply is low, the inventory is slightly accumulating, and the demand is weak. The short - term price is in a volatile trend [6]. Logs - The main contract of logs 2603 opened at 771, with a low of 767, a high of 779.5, and closed at 776 on January 23, with a reduction of 3311 lots. The spot price is stable, and the supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions [6]. Cotton - On the night of January 22, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14590 yuan/ton. The inventory increased by 28 lots. Textile enterprises are cautious in replenishing raw materials [6]. Steel - The central bank's loose monetary policy provides some support for industrial product prices. However, the steel market needs further implementation of industry - stabilizing policies to improve the supply - demand relationship. As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand for steel is expected to decline, and the inventory is accumulating [6]. Alumina - The supply of raw materials is increasing, and the price of bauxite is showing a slight weakening trend. The domestic alumina supply is still in excess, and the inventory is accumulating. The demand is stable [6]. Shanghai Aluminum - The supply of alumina is at a low level, and the electrolytic aluminum production is stable. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. The aluminum price is affected by macro - expectations and remains high [6].