申万期货品种策略日报-天胶-20260126
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo·2026-01-26 02:52

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report The natural rubber futures prices are rising. The strong performance of butadiene has significantly driven up the prices of synthetic rubber, and natural rubber has followed this upward trend. With domestic rubber - producing areas having stopped tapping and the northeastern part of Thailand expected to stop tapping in January, while the southern part is in the peak season, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao, China, continues to accumulate. In the short - term, the supply elasticity has weakened, and the price of raw rubber is relatively firm. The demand side supports the stable operation of all - steel tire production. The chemical industry sector has been strong recently, and the short - term rubber prices are expected to remain relatively strong [4]. 3) Summary by Related Contents Futures Market - The previous day's closing prices of RU, NR, and BR futures were 16,315, 13,095, and 12,930 respectively, with price increases of 465, 360, and 660, and price increase rates of 2.93%, 2.83%, and 5.38% respectively. Their trading volumes were 445,410, 100,811, and 356,678, and their open interests were 12,930, 59,878, and 30,694 respectively, with changes of 660, - 949, and 10 [2]. - The spreads between RU - NR, RU - BR, and NR - BR were 3,220, 3,385, and 165 respectively, with changes of 105, - 195, and - 300 [2]. - The RU basis, mixed - RU, and smoke - sheet - RU were - 315, - 1440, and 2235 respectively, compared to previous values of - 250, - 1060, and 2400 [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices of whole - milk rubber in Shandong, Shanghai, and Kunming were 15,900, 16,000, and 16,000 respectively, with price increase rates of 2.91%, 2.56%, and 2.56%. Spot prices of smoke - sheet rubber in Shandong and Shanghai were 18,550, with a price increase rate of 1.64%. Spot prices of mixed rubber in Qingdao and Yunnan were 14,875 and 15,575 respectively, with price increase rates of 0.57% and 2.81% [2]. Downstream Market - The prices of Thai smoke - sheet, Thai cup - lump, and Thai latex were 60.7, 52.61, and 57.6 Thai baht per kilogram respectively, with price increase rates of 1.08%, 0.67%, and 0.52% [2].