宁证期货今日早评-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term outlooks for multiple commodities including methanol, silver, etc., and offers corresponding investment suggestions such as short - term trading strategies and waiting for market stabilization [1][3]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - Market data: The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2263 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol is 89.92%, down 1.18% week - on - week; the total downstream capacity utilization rate is 71.26%, down 1.3% weekly; the methanol port sample inventory is 145.75 tons, up 2.22 tons weekly [1]. - Outlook: With high domestic methanol production and falling downstream demand, the port inventory has slightly increased. The inland market is weak, and the port basis has weakened. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [1]. Silver - Market factors: A storm in the US has affected market risk preferences, and gold has risen due to safe - haven demand [1]. - Outlook: Silver is still bullish in the long term, but the short - term upward momentum may be limited. Attention should be paid to the interaction between gold and silver [1]. Pig - Market data: As of January 23, the average weight of slaughtered pigs is 123 kg, up 0.01 kg; the weekly slaughter rate is 34.13%, up 0.66%; the profit from purchasing piglets for breeding is 37.85 yuan/head, up 79.68 yuan/head; the self - breeding profit is 115.96 yuan/head, up 52.46 yuan/head; the piglet price is 343.33 yuan/head, up 34.28 yuan/head [3]. - Outlook: The pig price rose first and then fell over the weekend. The supply of standard - weight pigs is relatively abundant, and the slaughter enterprises are cautious in procurement. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to wait for stabilization [3]. Palm Oil - Market factors: Italy has passed a new biofuel regulation, and the SGS data shows a 2.70% decline in Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 20 [3]. - Outlook: Although the current demand is weak, the strong foundation for palm oil futures prices remains. It is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term, and short - term long positions are recommended [3]. Soybean Meal - Market data: On January 23, the domestic soybean meal spot prices in Tianjin, Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong were 3180 yuan/ton (stable), 3080 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton), 3070 yuan/ton (stable), and 3060 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton) respectively [4]. - Outlook: The spot price has a slight upward trend due to pre - holiday stocking, but the high oil mill operating rate and future Brazilian soybean supply pressure limit the upside. It is recommended to wait and see as it lacks direction in the short term [4]. Coking Coal - Market data: The capacity utilization rate of independent coke enterprises is 72.55%, down 0.14%; the daily coke output is 63.45 tons, down 0.12 tons; the coke inventory is 81.81 tons, down 4.26 tons; the coking coal inventory is 1132.85 tons, up 61.17 tons; the available days of coking coal are 13.4 days, up 0.75 days [4]. - Outlook: The downstream winter storage is ongoing, and the coal mine output is expected to decline. The fundamental situation will improve marginally, but the upward momentum of the futures market is limited. It is expected to fluctuate [4]. Iron Ore - Market data: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports is 16766.53 tons, up 211.43 tons; the daily port clearance volume is 310.73 tons, down 9.16 tons; the number of ships at ports is 118, up 1 [5]. - Outlook: Although the inventory pressure is increasing, considering supply and demand factors, the further inventory accumulation pressure is limited. The price is supported in the short term and is expected to fluctuate [5]. Rebar - Market data: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 78.68%, down 0.16 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate is 85.51%, up 0.03 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate is 40.69%, up 0.86 percentage points; the daily hot metal output is 228.1 tons, up 0.09 tons [5]. - Outlook: The building material demand is seasonally weakening, and the inventory accumulation speed is expected to accelerate as steel mills resume production. However, the cost side provides support. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [5]. Soda Ash - Market data: The national mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash is 1234 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly output is 77.17 tons, down 0.46%; the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 152.12 tons, down 3.42%; the float glass operating rate is 71.62%, up 0.14 percentage points [6]. - Outlook: The float glass market is stable, and the domestic soda ash market is weakly stable. With high supply and mediocre demand, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [6]. PVC - Market data: The price of East China SG - 5 PVC is 4650 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 78.74%, down 0.89%; the social inventory is 117.75 tons, up 2.92%; the average profit of calcium carbide - based PVC producers is - 733 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based producers is - 164 yuan/ton [7]. - Outlook: With high supply, low domestic demand, and rapid inventory accumulation, the price is under pressure. However, strong exports support the price. It is expected to fluctuate under pressure in the short term [7]. Crude Oil - Market data: As of January 23, the number of US online drilling oil wells is 411, up 1 from the previous week and down 61 from the same period last year [8]. - Outlook: The US has increased pressure on Iran, and geopolitical risks have pushed up international oil prices. Short - term long positions are recommended, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks and the US winter storm [8]. Synthetic Rubber - Market data: The estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene enterprises is 11.06 tons, up 0.01 tons; the butadiene inventory has significantly decreased, down 14.84%; the profit of butadiene extraction process is 2693 yuan/ton, up 317 yuan/ton [9]. - Outlook: The increase is mainly driven by butadiene. With sufficient supply of synthetic rubber and high downstream shipment pressure, it is recommended to be cautious when going long and use short - term long positions at low levels [9]. Asphalt - Market data: As of January 21, the domestic asphalt sample enterprise operating rate is 26.8%, down 0.4 percentage points; as of January 23, the weekly output is 47.6 tons, down 1.2 tons; the factory inventory is 60.9 tons, down 1.3 tons; the social inventory is 86.2 tons, up 4.7 tons [10]. - Outlook: The supply - demand situation has not significantly improved, but supply disruptions and cost support are expected to boost the asphalt futures market, which is expected to remain strong [10]. Copper - Market data: Zijin Mining's Julong Copper Mine Phase II project has been put into operation, with the annual copper production expected to increase from 190,000 tons to 300,000 - 350,000 tons [11]. - Outlook: The long - term supply shortage situation remains, but the market is digesting the high - level pressure after the previous price increase. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [11]. Short - term Treasury Bonds - Market data: Most short - term Shibor varieties have declined. The overnight rate is down 1.7 BP to 1.396%, the 7 - day rate is down 0.6 BP to 1.491%, the 14 - day rate is down 1.3 BP to 1.577%, and the 1 - month rate is up 0.07 BP to 1.5577% [11]. - Outlook: The loosening of the capital market is beneficial to the bond market. The bond market is expected to strengthen with fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [11]. Gold - Market factors: The US has increased military deployment and imposed sanctions on Iran, increasing the possibility of war [12]. - Outlook: Safe - haven sentiment supports the gold price. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish and pay attention to geopolitical disturbances [12]. Aluminum - Market data: In November 2025, the global primary aluminum production was 6.0226 million tons, and the consumption was 5.8176 million tons, with a surplus of 204,900 tons. From January to November, the production was 66.7204 million tons, and the consumption was 68.248 million tons, with a shortage of 1.5276 million tons [12]. - Outlook: The shortage situation at the end of 2025 has gradually changed to a surplus. In the current off - season, the surplus trend continues. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [12].