远端预期引领镍价上涨

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rise in nickel prices is led by long - term expectations. Although the price has received regulatory attention after consecutive sharp increases and may experience corrections approaching the Spring Festival, the upward trend is not over, and a low - buying strategy is recommended. For stainless steel, the supply - demand is tight with cost support, and a low - buying strategy is also advised after price corrections [7][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Spread Tracking and Inventory - Nickel: Global visible inventory reached 352,000 tons, increasing by 780 tons this week, with domestic social inventory up 2,784 tons and LME inventory down 2,044 tons. Jinchuan nickel is under tight supply, and its premium remains around 9,000 yuan/ton [18]. - Stainless Steel: Social inventory is decreasing, and warehouse receipts are expected to increase in the future. Supply - side raw material shortages, especially for hot - rolled products, may lead to a downward revision of cold - rolled production schedules. Demand - side pre - Spring Festival stocking has not started, but due to strong bullish sentiment, spot prices are rising with hoarding behavior [10][19]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Nickel Supply and Demand - Supply: In 2025, refined nickel production increased by 17% year - on - year to 392,700 tons. Net imports were 59,000 tons, compared with a net export of 23,600 tons in the same period last year. Total supply was 450,000 tons, a 45% year - on - year increase. In January, high prices are expected to further boost production, and net imports are also expected to increase [27]. - Demand: From January to December, pure nickel consumption increased by 2% year - on - year to 291,000 tons. Electroplating demand is in the off - season, and overall consumption growth has slowed [30]. 3.2.2 Stainless Steel Raw Materials - Nickel Ore: Indonesia's nickel ore quota is tentatively set at 2.5 - 2.6 billion tons. Market sentiment for overseas nickel mines is positive, and prices are rising. The Indonesian government is still processing the approval of mining company work plans and budgets [31][32]. - NPI: NPI production is recovering, with prices rising and profit margins improving. Some production lines are switching from NPI to high - grade nickel ice due to falling NPI prices [33][34]. - Chromium - Based Materials: Chromium - based prices are rising. Zimbabwe will impose a 10% tax on chromium exports starting from January 1, 2026, leading to a continuous rebound in chromium ore prices [38][44]. - Cost Estimation: Estimated cold - rolled cash cost is around 14,400 yuan/ton, and integrated cost is about 13,900 yuan/ton [47]. 3.2.3 Stainless Steel Supply and Demand - Supply: In 2025, the combined stainless steel crude steel production of China and Indonesia is expected to be 45.06 million tons, a 4% year - on - year increase. In January, due to shortages of hot - rolled products, production schedules may be revised downward. China's stainless steel imports decreased by 21% year - on - year to 1.519 million tons, exports remained flat at 5.031 million tons, and net exports increased by 11% to 3.512 million tons [56]. - Demand: Shipbuilding production has a high growth rate, providing support for stainless steel demand. However, growth in other terminal sectors is not optimistic, especially in the real estate market [57][58]. 3.2.4 New Energy Automobiles - Domestic Market: In 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales were 16.626 million and 16.49 million respectively, a 29% and 28.2% year - on - year increase, with a penetration rate of 47.9%. In January 2026, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles decreased. Power battery production followed the trend of vehicle sales, and in January, the impact of export tax rebate reduction may mitigate the decline in battery production [63]. - Global Market: From January to November 2025, global new energy vehicle sales increased by 20.1% year - on - year to 18.39 million. European sales increased by 29.2% to 3.434 million, while US sales increased by 0.7% to 1.39 million. China's new energy vehicle exports from January to December 2025 were 2.583 million, a 103% year - on - year increase [68]. 3.2.5 Nickel Sulfate Market - Production: In 2025, nickel sulfate production decreased by 4.3% year - on - year to 354,000 nickel tons. Ternary precursor production increased by 6% to 903,000 tons, and ternary cathode material production increased by 19% to 686,000 tons. In January, demand slowed down, but prices followed the upward trend of refined nickel [70]. - Raw Materials: In 2025, Indonesia's MHP production increased by 41% to 444,000 tons, and high - grade nickel ice production decreased by 18% to 224,000 tons. Rising sulfur prices increased MHP production costs, but strong nickel sulfate demand boosted intermediate product prices and production [76]. 3.3 Trading Logic and Strategies - Nickel: For single - side trading, adopt a low - buying strategy after price corrections and stabilizations. For options, sell out - of - the - money put options [6]. - Stainless Steel: For single - side trading, buy at low prices after corrections and stabilizations. For arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach [10].