地缘事件引发信任裂痕，贵金属强势上涨

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical events have led to trust issues, causing a significant increase in precious metal prices. The market's focus has shifted from the Fed's personnel changes to geopolitical and tariff crises, weakening the impact of economic data. The weakening US dollar index has contributed to the rise in precious metal prices. From the perspective of the supply - demand balance in 2026, platinum is in a tight - balance state, while palladium is moving from a supply deficit to a surplus. Platinum has stronger upward momentum than palladium [4]. Summary According to the Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Macro - aspect: Last week, the market's main narrative shifted from the Fed's personnel changes to geopolitical and tariff crises. Trump's statements affected the market's expectations of interest rate cuts. Despite the strong US economic data, the US dollar index was weak, and European long - term capital's confidence in US dollar assets was shaken, potentially reshaping the global capital flow pattern and driving up precious metal prices [4]. - Fundamental - aspect: In the 2026 supply - demand balance sheet, platinum is in a tight - balance state, and palladium is moving from a decade - long supply deficit to a supply surplus. Platinum has stronger upward - driving forces than palladium [4]. Strategy Recommendations - Single - side trading: Hold long positions in platinum based on the 5 - day moving average (600 - 640), and stop losses and wait if it breaks below. Hold long positions in palladium cautiously based on the 5 - day moving average, and be aware of the callback risk due to weak fundamental support. Pay attention to position management due to the large price fluctuations of platinum and palladium and the lack of night trading [6]. - Arbitrage: Enter the market to go long on platinum and short on palladium when the price difference is between 140 - 160 [6]. - Options: Wait and see because the time value is too high [6]. Chapter 2: Trading and Arbitrage Data Tracking Weekly Trading Data of Guangzhou Futures Exchange - As of January 23, the total open interest of PT contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 28,152 lots, a decrease of 2,442 lots compared to the previous period, and the total weekly trading volume was approximately RMB 7.0719 billion. The total open interest of PD contracts was 13,665 lots, a decrease of 1,329 lots, and the total weekly trading volume was approximately RMB 2.1002 billion [25]. Spot Arbitrage - Platinum: The price difference between the Guangzhou Futures Exchange and the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 4.40 yuan/gram, with a theoretical cost of 4.98 yuan/gram and a theoretical profit of - 0.58 yuan/gram, indicating no arbitrage opportunity. The price difference between the Guangzhou Futures Exchange and the London Platinum and Palladium Market is 76.96 yuan/gram, with a theoretical cost of 74.88 yuan/gram and a theoretical profit of 2.09 yuan/gram, indicating an arbitrage opportunity [27][28]. - Palladium: The price difference between the Guangzhou Futures Exchange and the domestic spot palladium is 15.45 yuan/gram, with a theoretical cost of 4.28 yuan/gram and a theoretical profit of 11.17 yuan/gram, indicating an arbitrage opportunity. The price difference between the Guangzhou Futures Exchange and the London Platinum and Palladium Market is 72.80 yuan/gram, with a theoretical cost of 55.35 yuan/gram and a theoretical profit of 17.46 yuan/gram, indicating an arbitrage opportunity [27][28]. Chapter 3: Fundamental Data Tracking Platinum - Supply and Demand - According to the WPIC forecast, platinum will be in a basic supply - demand balance in 2026. Its demand structure is relatively healthy, with stable demand in major areas such as the automotive, chemical, and jewelry industries. In the investment field, the WPIC is pessimistic about platinum's demand in 2026, but it still maintains a basic balance. In the future, there may be further upward potential if there is a more severe structural spot shortage or a further reduction in the current ground inventory and if investors believe that platinum will experience continuous high - speed growth in specific fields [33][34]. Palladium - Supply and Demand - In 2026, palladium's supply is expected to increase by 5.85% year - on - year, while demand is expected to decline by 1.27%. A supply surplus of 20.37 tons is expected, which may be a turning point from a long - term supply shortage to a surplus. Fundamentally, the support for palladium prices may be limited, and in the future, its price may fluctuate significantly due to macro - environment, linkage with platinum prices, market sentiment, and structural spot shortages [35][36][37]. CFTC Positions - Platinum: As of January 20, the long positions of platinum asset management institutions in the CFTC were 18,423 contracts, the short positions were 12,925 contracts, and the net long positions were 5,498 contracts (a decrease of 2,367 contracts compared to the previous period). The long positions of commercial institutions were 19,867 contracts, the short positions were 41,649 contracts, and the net short positions were 21,782 contracts (a decrease of 2,024 contracts compared to the previous period) [40]. - Palladium: As of January 20, the long positions of palladium asset management institutions in the CFTC were 6,554 contracts, the short positions were 6,809 contracts, and the net long positions were - 255 contracts (a decrease of 239 contracts compared to the previous period). The long positions of commercial institutions were 5,457 contracts, the short positions were 8,219 contracts, and the net short positions were 2,762 contracts (a decrease of 128 contracts compared to the previous period) [47]. Inventory - Platinum: As of January 23, 2026, the total CME platinum inventory was 665,888.20 troy ounces, an increase of 1,495.48 troy ounces compared to January 16. The registered inventory decreased by 31,893.811 troy ounces, and the unregistered inventory increased by 33,389.29 troy ounces [48]. - Palladium: As of January 23, 2026, the total CME palladium inventory was 216,266.31 troy ounces, an increase of 9,246.30 troy ounces compared to January 16. The registered inventory increased by 4,803.228 troy ounces, and the unregistered inventory increased by 4,443.068 troy ounces [53]. Lease Rates - Platinum: The document provides the one - month, three - month, six - month, and one - year annualized lease rates of platinum, showing their historical trends from 2020 - 2026 [57][58]. - Palladium: The document provides the one - month, three - month, six - month, and one - year annualized lease rates of palladium, showing their historical trends from 2021 - 2026 [60][61].