多晶硅：现货成交价下行，短期期货承压，工业硅：大厂计划减产，逢低买入

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - For polysilicon, due to production cuts by Tongwei Co., Ltd. and GCL Technology, polysilicon production decreased in January and February, and inventory significantly accumulated. The spot price has dropped, and future prices are expected to decline further under high inventory and weak demand. The short - term futures should be treated with a bearish view [4]. - For industrial silicon, downstream demand has weakened due to organic silicon and polysilicon production cuts. Although there are unconfirmed rumors of large - scale production cuts by major manufacturers, if they materialize, it will reverse the supply - demand situation in February. The futures price may fluctuate strongly in the short term and rise after actual production cuts. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. Summary by Chapter Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Polysilicon - Production and Inventory: Tongwei Co., Ltd. stopped all polysilicon production, and GCL Technology cut production. In January, production dropped to around 90,000 tons, and in February, it fell below 85,000 tons. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers soared to 330,000 tons [4]. - Spot Market: This week, the spot market transactions increased, with a volume of nearly 30,000 tons in the second half of the week and a price range of 45 - 49 yuan/kg. The spot price has significantly decreased, and future prices may continue to fall, with a support level of 42 - 45 yuan/kg [4]. - Futures Market: With low trading volume and increased random fluctuations in the market, a short - term bearish view is recommended, with a reference price range of (45000, 52000). Attention should be paid to next week's important meetings [4]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, adopt a bearish view and participate cautiously due to low trading volume. There are no recommendations for arbitrage and options [5]. Industrial Silicon - Supply and Demand: This week, the weekly production of DMC decreased by 0.61% to 42,900 tons, polysilicon production decreased by 7.4% to 20,400 tons. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy remained unchanged at 58.6%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 0.9 percentage points to 59.3%. The weekly production of industrial silicon was 76,200 tons, a decrease of 2.78%. The total number of open furnaces decreased by 3 to 219. The social inventory of industrial silicon was 556,000 tons, an increase of 1000 tons. The inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 215,800 tons, an increase of 5600 tons, and the downstream raw material inventory was 234,300 tons, an increase of 1300 tons [6]. - Trading Logic: The demand for industrial silicon has weakened due to production cuts in organic silicon and polysilicon. If the large - scale production cuts by major manufacturers are implemented, the monthly production will decrease by 60,000 - 70,000 tons, reversing the supply - demand situation in February. The rumors of production cuts have boosted manufacturers' confidence in holding prices. In the short term, the futures price may fluctuate strongly, and it may rise after actual production cuts [6]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to buy on dips, with a reference price range of (8600, 9500). There are no recommendations for options and arbitrage [7]. Chapter 2: Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data Tracking - Market Performance: This week, the industrial silicon futures fluctuated strongly, while the spot price changed little, and there was no large - scale hedging [10]. - Downstream Demand: The production of DMC and polysilicon decreased, and the operating rate of aluminum alloy was slightly adjusted. The weekly production of DMC was 42,900 tons, a decrease of 0.61%, and the weekly production of polysilicon was 20,400 tons, a decrease of 7.4%. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy remained unchanged at 58.6%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 0.9 percentage points to 59.3% [13]. - Production: The weekly production of industrial silicon was 76,200 tons, a decrease of 2.78%. The total number of open furnaces decreased by 3 to 219. If major manufacturers implement production cuts, the monthly production will decrease by 60,000 - 70,000 tons [24]. - Inventory: The social inventory of industrial silicon was 556,000 tons, an increase of 1000 tons. The inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 215,800 tons, an increase of 5600 tons, and the downstream raw material inventory was 234,300 tons, an increase of 1300 tons [25]. - Product Prices: The spot price of industrial silicon, DMC, and terminal products remained stable this week [30][34]. - Intermediate Fundamental Data: The operating rate of organic silicon intermediates was slightly adjusted [40]. - Aluminum Alloy Fundamental Data: The price and operating rate of aluminum alloy increased slightly [44]. - Raw Material Prices: The raw material prices of industrial silicon remained stable this week [48]. Chapter 3: Polysilicon Fundamental Data Tracking - Product Prices: This week, the prices of some polysilicon and silicon wafers decreased, while the prices of batteries and components increased. For example, the average price of N - type dense material decreased by 2.02% compared to the previous weekend [52]. - Component Fundamental Data: From April 2026, the export tax rebate for photovoltaic components will be cancelled, leading to potential export rush in January - March. The estimated production in January will increase to around 40GW. The European and domestic component inventories are at a moderately low level [60]. - Battery Chip Fundamental Data: The export tax rebate for photovoltaic batteries will be reduced and cancelled in 2027. The estimated production in January will increase to around 48GW [61]. - Silicon Wafer Fundamental Data: The silicon wafer inventory has increased to 26.78GW. With the cancellation of the export tax rebate, there is still demand for export rush, and the estimated production in January may increase to 50GW [67]. - Polysilicon Fundamental Data: This week, the polysilicon production slightly decreased, and the factory inventory increased to 330,000 tons. In January, due to production cuts by GCL Technology and Tongwei Co., Ltd., the production decreased to around 90,000 tons, and in February, it will be reduced to 82,000 - 85,000 tons [72].