格林大华期货早盘提示：钢材-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - On Thursday, rebar and hot-rolled coils closed up, and also closed up during the night session. The supply of five major steel products this week was 819,590 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.38 thousand tons. The total inventory of five major steel products was 1,257,080 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 10,070 tons and a growth rate of 0.8%. The weekly consumption of five major products was 809,520 tons, among which the consumption of building materials decreased by 0.8% week-on-week and the consumption of plates decreased by 2.6% week-on-week. Near the end of the year, steel mills' winter storage policies are being released one after another, but downstream winter storage willingness is average, with most holding a cautious attitude and the winter storage volume decreasing compared to last year. The current market's psychological winter storage price is concentrated at 3,000 - 3,100 yuan/ton, which is relatively close to the current spot price level. Short-term long positions can be attempted, but it is expected that the upside space is limited, and stop-loss should be set. The support level of the rebar main contract is 3,050, and the pressure level is 3,200 [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, rebar and hot-rolled coils closed up, and also closed up during the night session [1] 3.2 Important Information - In December 2025, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.791 million, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%; from January to December, the production was 16.524 million, a year-on-year increase of 25.1% [1] - In December 2025, China's raw coal production was 437.035 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.0%; the cumulative production from January to December was 4.831782 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%. From the provincial data, from January to December 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rates of raw coal production in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi were 2.1%, -1.0% and 2.9% respectively [1] - On January 22, 2026, the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in December 2025, China's excavator production was 37,305 units, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%. In the whole year of 2025, China's excavator production was 379,643 units, a year-on-year increase of 16.6% [1] - In 2026, the People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, taking promoting stable economic growth and reasonable recovery of prices as important considerations for monetary policy. There is still some room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [1] - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 819,590 tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.38 thousand tons; the total inventory of five major steel products was 1,257,080 tons, a week-on-week increase of 10,070 tons and a growth rate of 0.8%; the weekly consumption of five major products was 809,520 tons, among which the consumption of building materials decreased by 0.8% week-on-week and the consumption of plates decreased by 2.6% week-on-week [1] 3.3 Market Logic - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 819,590 tons, remaining unchanged week-on-week. The variety structure of steel production has differentiated this period, mainly with an increase in building materials production and a decrease in plate and coil production. The total inventory of five major steel products this week was 1,257,080 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 10,070 tons and a growth rate of 0.8%. The total inventory of five major products has rebounded this week, and the inventory changes of building materials and plates have differentiated, with building materials showing inventory accumulation and plates showing inventory reduction. Building materials accumulated 14,870 tons of inventory, and plates reduced inventory by 4,800 tons. In terms of consumption, the weekly consumption of five major products this week was 809,520 tons, among which the consumption of building materials decreased by 0.8% week-on-week and the consumption of plates decreased by 2.6% week-on-week. The consumption structure of building materials and plates among the five major products remained the same this week. Near the end of the year, steel mills' winter storage policies are being released one after another. The downstream winter storage willingness is average, with most holding a cautious attitude and the winter storage volume decreasing compared to last year. The current market's psychological winter storage price is concentrated at 3,000 - 3,100 yuan/ton, which is relatively close to the current spot price level [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Short-term long positions can be attempted, but it is expected that the upside space is limited, and stop-loss should be set. The support level of the rebar main contract is 3,050, and the pressure level is 3,200 [1]