Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The GDP of China in 2025 was 1,401,879 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, achieving the target set at the beginning of the year. In the fourth quarter, China's GDP increased by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter. In December, the growth rates of fixed - asset investment and total retail sales of consumer goods were lower than market expectations, while the export growth rate and the actual year - on - year growth of industrial added value above a designated size exceeded market expectations. The year - on - year growth rate of the service industry production index in December rebounded by 0.8 percentage points compared with November. The real estate sales volume and housing prices continued to decline year - on - year in December last year and in the first ten - day period of January this year. The Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will be maintained at a necessary level. The central bank governor said there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. The Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short term, and the impact of the stock index should be continuously monitored [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday, the main contracts of Treasury bond futures opened roughly flat, with a slight upward movement and then a decline throughout the day. As of the close, the main contract of the 30 - year Treasury bond futures (TL2603) rose 0.07%, the 10 - year (T2603) rose 0.03%, the 5 - year (TF2603) rose 0.04%, and the 2 - year (TS2603) rose 0.01% [1] Important Information - Open market: On Friday, the central bank conducted 125 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 86.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net injection of 38.3 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Friday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market declined slightly. The weighted average of DR001 throughout the day was 1.40%, compared with 1.42% in the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 throughout the day was 1.49%, compared with 1.51% in the previous trading day [1] - Cash bond market: On Friday, the closing yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds mostly declined compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of the 2 - year Treasury bond decreased by 0.75 basis points to 1.40%, the 5 - year decreased by 1.82 basis points to 1.60%, the 10 - year decreased by 1.27 basis points to 1.83%, and the 30 - year decreased by 2.30 basis points to 2.29% [1] - On January 23, the Bank of Japan announced that it would maintain the policy interest rate at 0.75%, in line with expectations [1] - On January 23, it was announced that the preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in January was 51.9 (expected 52, previous value in December was 51.8), the preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in January was 52.5 (expected 52.9, previous value in December was 52.5, previous value in the same period last year was 52.9), and the preliminary value of the US S&P Global Composite PMI in January was 52.8 (expected 53, previous value in December was 52.7, previous value in the same period last year was 52.7) [1] - On January 23, it was announced that the preliminary value of the eurozone manufacturing PMI in January 2026 rose to 49.4, up 0.6 percentage points from 48.8 in December, higher than the market expectation of 49.1. The preliminary value of the eurozone services PMI in January was 51.9 (expected 52.6, previous value was 52.4), and the preliminary value of the eurozone composite PMI in January was 51.5 (expected 51.9, previous value was 51.5) [1] Market Logic - The GDP of China in 2025 was 1,401,879 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.0%, achieving the target set at the beginning of the year. In the fourth quarter, China's GDP increased by 1.2% quarter - on - quarter. In December, the growth rates of fixed - asset investment and total retail sales of consumer goods were lower than market expectations, while the export growth rate and the actual year - on - year growth of industrial added value above a designated size exceeded market expectations. The year - on - year growth rate of the service industry production index in December rebounded by 0.8 percentage points compared with November. The real estate sales volume and housing prices continued to decline year - on - year in December last year and in the first ten - day period of January this year. The Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will be maintained at a necessary level. The central bank governor said there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. On Friday, the Wind All - A Index opened slightly higher, fluctuated upwards throughout the day, and closed 0.97% higher than the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 3.12 trillion yuan, an increase from 2.72 trillion yuan in the previous trading day. The stock market rose on Friday, while the main contracts of Treasury bond futures still rose slightly. Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short term, and the impact of the stock index should be continuously monitored [1][2] Trading Strategy - Traders should conduct band operations [2]
格林大华期货早盘提示：国债-20260126
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2026-01-26 02:53