格林大华期货早盘提示：甲醇-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol in the energy and chemical industry is "Bullish" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The Middle East geopolitical situation is highly uncertain, and crude oil prices are firm. Last week, methanol inventories at ports increased slightly, while those in production areas decreased. The domestic market continued the rhythm of price - cut inventory clearance, with buyers making low - price and just - in - time purchases. In the short term, the market will fluctuate strongly. The reference range for contract 05 is 2250 - 2360. It is recommended to hold long positions [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review - On Friday night, the futures price of the main contract 2605 rose by 64 yuan to 2334 yuan/ton, and the spot price of methanol in the mainstream East China region rose by 25 yuan to 2263 yuan/ton. Long positions decreased by 2783 lots to 451,600 lots, and short positions decreased by 20,969 lots to 559,600 lots [2] 3.2 Important Information 3.2.1 Supply - The domestic methanol operating rate is 89.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 60.8%, a month - on - month increase of 1.3% [2] 3.2.2 Inventory - The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 1.4575 million tons, an increase of 22,200 tons from the previous period. In the East China region, inventory decreased by 13,600 tons; in the South China region, inventory increased by 35,800 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 438,300 tons, a decrease of 12,500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.78% [2] 3.2.3 Demand - The signing volume of northwest methanol enterprises is 46,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 47,800 tons. The pending orders of sample enterprises are 238,300 tons, a slight increase of 500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.21%. The olefin operating rate is 85.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7%; the methyl chloride operating rate is 74.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.5%; the acetic acid operating rate is 80.6%, a month - on - month increase of 2.2%; the formaldehyde operating rate is 34.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%; the MTBE operating rate is 68.0%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% [2] 3.2.4 Import - In December 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.734 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.56%, and the average import price was 240.61 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7.23%. Among them, the imports from Saudi Arabia were the largest, reaching 604,400 tons, with an average import price of 238.74 US dollars/ton. From January to December 2025, China's cumulative methanol imports were 14.4054 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.75% [2] 3.2.5 Crude Oil - The US plans to strengthen sanctions on the oil sectors of some countries, increasing concerns about potential supply risks and driving up international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures 03 contract rose 1.71 US dollars/barrel to 61.07 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 2.88%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract rose 1.82 US dollars/barrel to 65.88 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 2.84%. The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2603 contract fell 6.9 to 439.4 yuan/barrel, and rose 10.4 to 449.8 yuan/barrel at night [2] 3.3 Market Logic - The Middle East geopolitical situation is highly uncertain, and crude oil prices are firm. Last week, methanol inventories at ports increased slightly, while those in production areas decreased. The domestic market continued the rhythm of price - cut inventory clearance, with buyers making low - price and just - in - time purchases. In the short term, the market will fluctuate strongly. The reference range for contract 05 is 2250 - 2360 [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Hold long positions [2]