国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20260126

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the document. Core Views - Gold is hitting new highs, and silver is aiming for 100. Copper prices are strengthening due to increased disruptions in copper mines. Zinc is running strongly, and lead prices are supported by the decrease in LME inventory. Tin is trending strongly with fluctuations. Aluminum is oscillating strongly, alumina is consolidating at the bottom, and cast aluminum alloy is following the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Platinum is rising sharply, and there is a need to be vigilant about the catch - up momentum of palladium. The situation of the Indonesian nickel event is undetermined, with a game between hedging and speculative positions. The concerns about nickel mines in Indonesia are intensifying, and the rise in ferronickel supports the center of gravity of stainless steel [2]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,083.56, with a daily decline of 0.49%. The trading volume was 92,211, a decrease of 11,720 from the previous day, and the open interest was 55,638, a decrease of 8,542. Comex Gold 2602 closed at 4938.40, with a daily increase of 2.11%. The trading volume was 260,253, a decrease of 130,011, and the open interest was 224,850, a decrease of 17,878 [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Gold was 102,009 kg, an increase of 2,019 kg. The inventory of Comex Gold (in troy ounces from the day before) was 36,142,880, an increase of 6,979 [4]. - Spread: The spread between Gold T + D and AU2602 was 0.36, unchanged from the previous day. The cost of the inter - period arbitrage of buying December Shanghai Gold and selling June was 4.77, a decrease of 0.87 from the previous day [4]. Silver - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 23370, with a daily increase of 0.82%. The trading volume was 50,752, a decrease of 10,158, and the open interest was 43,227, a decrease of 3,587. Comex Silver 2602 closed at 96.215, with a daily increase of 3.51%. The trading volume was 104,613, a decrease of 21,772, and the open interest was 100,935, unchanged [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Silver was 589,052 kg, a decrease of 11727 kg. The inventory of Comex Silver (in troy ounces from the day before) was 422,313,658, a decrease of 4,162,840 [4]. - Spread: The spread between Silver T + D and AG2602 was - 48, a decrease of 11 from the previous day. The cost of the inter - period arbitrage of buying December Shanghai Silver and selling June was 73.41, a decrease of 11.3 from the previous day [4]. Copper - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 101,340, with a daily increase of 0.64%, and the night - session closing price was 102830, with a night - session increase of 1.47%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 443,867, an increase of 122,137, and the open interest was 658,243, an increase of 10,968. The closing price of LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 13,129, with a daily increase of 2.25%. The trading volume was 30,247, an increase of 2,046, and the open interest was 326,000, an increase of 9,606 [8]. - Inventory and Spread: The inventory of Shanghai Copper was 146,793, an increase of 3,620. The inventory of LME Copper was 171,700, an increase of 3,450, and the注销仓单 ratio was 26.95%, a decrease of 1.04%. The LME copper premium was - 66.06, an increase of 16.78 from the previous day [8]. - News: The US January S&P Global manufacturing and service PMI both expanded but were slightly lower than expected. The euro - zone January manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 49.4. The union of the Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile condemned the company for illegally replacing workers during the 15 - day strike. China's December 2025 imports of copper ore and concentrates increased by 7.05% month - on - month and 7.32% year - on - year [8][10]. Zinc - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 24585, with a daily increase of 0.76%. The trading volume was 173287, an increase of 42014, and the open interest was 120175, an increase of 1617. The closing price of LME Zinc 3M electronic disk was 3269, with a daily increase of 1.11%. The trading volume was 9463, a decrease of 475, and the open interest was 230166, an increase of 1359 [11]. - Spread and Inventory: The Shanghai 0 zinc premium was 40, a decrease of 15. The LME CASH - 3M premium was - 32.62, an increase of 4.04. The inventory of Shanghai Zinc futures was 29994, a decrease of 306, and the LME zinc inventory was 111500, a decrease of 200 [11]. - News: The EU announced a six - month suspension of retaliatory tariffs against the US. Trump said the US would obtain "sovereignty" over the area where the US military base on Greenland is located [12]. Lead - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17095, with a daily decrease of 0.26%. The trading volume was 37429, an increase of 1418, and the open interest was 65194, a decrease of 549. The closing price of LME Lead 3M electronic disk was 2035, with a daily increase of 0.07%. The trading volume was 5194, a decrease of 2276, and the open interest was 171446, an increase of 4221 [14]. - Spread and Inventory: The Shanghai 1 lead premium was 25, an increase of 25. The LME CASH - 3M premium was - 44.56, an increase of 0.46. The inventory of Shanghai Lead futures was 27966, an increase of 201, and the LME lead inventory was 215175, a decrease of 3250 [14]. - News: The US January S&P Global manufacturing and service PMI both expanded but were slightly lower than expected. The euro - zone January manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 49.4. The EU announced a six - month suspension of retaliatory tariffs against the US [14]. Tin - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 429,570, with a daily increase of 5.03%, and the night - session closing price was 447,140, with a night - session increase of 4.09%. The trading volume was 378,618, an increase of 102,997, and the open interest was 56,254, an increase of 33,940. The closing price of LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 56,605, with a daily increase of 7.49%. The trading volume was 890, an increase of 361, and the open interest was 23,931, an increase of 202 [17]. - Inventory and Spread: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 8,582, a decrease of 34. The inventory of LME Tin was 7,195, and the注销仓单 ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38%. The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 420,300, an increase of 17,050 from the previous day [17]. - News: The negotiation among Ukraine, the US, and Russia in Abu Dhabi, UAE, has ended. Huang Renxun, the founder of NVIDIA, visited China again [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 24290, an increase of 235 from the previous day. The trading volume was 428066, an increase of 72264, and the open interest was 340575, an increase of 2615. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2724, an increase of 7 from the previous day. The trading volume was 455997, a decrease of 108160, and the open interest was 494765, an increase of 5627. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 22995, an increase of 140 from the previous day. The trading volume was 9779, an increase of 1393, and the open interest was 16595, a decrease of 1319 [20]. - Inventory and Spread: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 76.80 million tons, unchanged from the previous day. The LME aluminum ingot inventory was 50.73 million tons, a decrease of 0.20 million tons. The domestic alumina average price was 2657, unchanged from the previous day [20]. - News: The US January S&P Global manufacturing and service PMI both expanded but were slightly lower than expected. The Bank of Japan maintained the interest rate, and the yen rose above 158 [21]. Platinum and Palladium - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of Platinum Futures 2606 was 685.90, with a daily increase of 8.21%. The trading volume of Shanghai Platinum was 26,609 kg, an increase of 8,403, and the open interest was 34,822, a decrease of 1,530. The closing price of Palladium Futures 2606 was 497.95, with a daily increase of 2.94%. The trading volume of Shanghai Palladium was 11.409 kg, an increase of 13,665, and the open interest was - 253, a decrease of 4.861 [22]. - Inventory and Spread: The inventory of NYMEX Platinum (in troy ounces from the day before) was 665,888, unchanged. The inventory of NYMEX Palladium (in troy ounces from the day before) was 0, an increase of 216,266. The spread between PT9995 and PT2606 was - 4.40, an increase of 5.05 from the previous day [22]. - News: Trump said the US would obtain "sovereignty" over the area where the US military base on Greenland is located. The US Treasury took the initial step of intervening in the foreign exchange market [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 148,010, an increase of 5,510 from the previous day. The trading volume was 752,840, an increase of 164,142. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 14,725, an increase of 75 from the previous day. The trading volume was 488,280, a decrease of 21,328 [26]. - Industry Chain Data: The price of 1 imported nickel was 144,800, an increase of 3,100 from the previous day. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 1,043, an increase of 9 from the previous day [26]. - News: The Indonesian government suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses through the OSS platform. The Chinese government implemented export license management for some steel products. The Indonesian government planned to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target [26][27][29].