CCA(SH:603100) China Post Securities·2026-01-26 02:45Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve total revenue of 6.8 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 10.43%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 631 million yuan, down 18.96% year-on-year [4][7] - The company is facing short-term pressure on performance, but there is optimism regarding the trend of domestic substitution in the industry [5][6] Company Overview - Latest closing price: 25.23 yuan - Total shares/ circulating shares: 5.13 billion / 5.12 billion - Total market value/ circulating market value: 12.9 billion yuan / 12.9 billion yuan - 52-week high/ low price: 26.90 yuan / 20.06 yuan - Debt-to-asset ratio: 48.0% - Price-to-earnings ratio: 16.60 [3] Performance Analysis - Quarterly revenue for 2025 is projected as follows: Q1: 1.448 billion yuan, Q2: 1.833 billion yuan, Q3: 1.609 billion yuan, Q4: 1.910 billion yuan, with year-on-year declines of 8%, 16%, 14%, and 3% respectively [5] - The company is actively expanding into new markets and industries, including petrochemicals, electricity, nuclear power, metallurgy, aerospace, and water resources, which are expected to drive order growth [5][6] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 6.8 billion, 7.365 billion, and 7.963 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -10.43%, 8.31%, and 8.12% respectively [7] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 631 million, 714 million, and 793 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -18.96%, 13.24%, and 11.12% respectively [7] - The corresponding PE valuations for 2025-2027 are 20.53, 18.13, and 16.32, maintaining a "Buy" rating [7]