申万期货品种策略日报：股指-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The continuous improvement of the stock market since 2026 is the result of the joint action of four factors: the resonance of the technology cycle, the release of policy dividends, the improvement of economic recovery, and the return of overseas funds. The market has gradually shifted from being dominated by valuation expansion to a new stage driven by earnings. It is expected that in 2026, supply - side reforms will continue, pushing up the prices of commodities and driving up resource - based stocks. With the continuous release of policy effects, the further enhancement of economic recovery momentum, and the continuous progress of overseas funds allocating Chinese assets, the stock market is expected to continue its volatile upward trend [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The previous two - day closing prices of IF contracts (IF当月, IF下月, IF下季, IF隔季) were 4722.00, 4719.40, 4683.00, 4626.00 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 4704.00, 4709.20, 4687.60, 4647.00. The price changes were - 16.20, - 7.20, 6.80, 23.60, and the corresponding price change rates of the CSI 300 were - 0.34, - 0.15, 0.15, 0.51. The trading volumes were 28815.00, 84474.00, 20706.00, 6487.00, and the positions were 42005.00, 173887.00, 72508.00, 11330.00. The changes in positions were 3960.00, - 417.00, 4100.00, 2530.00 [1] - IH Contracts: The previous two - day closing prices of IH contracts (IH当月, IH下月, IH下季, IH隔季) were 3057.00, 3061.20, 3057.60, 3025.80 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 3032.40, 3037.80, 3036.00, 3006.00. The price changes were - 22.20, - 20.20, - 19.60, - 15.60, and the corresponding price change rates of the SSE 50 were - 0.73, - 0.66, - 0.64, - 0.52. The trading volumes were 11094.00, 38693.00, 8525.00, 3725.00, and the positions were 16044.00, 63802.00, 23537.00, 5388.00. The changes in positions were 2026.00, 4793.00, 2711.00, 1709.00 [1] - IC Contracts: The previous two - day closing prices of IC contracts (IC当月, IC下月, IC下季, IC隔季) were 8404.00, 8400.00, 8309.60, 8195.20 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 8656.20, 8658.20, 8578.80, 8491.00. The price changes were 277.00, 281.20, 297.00, 320.60, and the corresponding price change rates of the CSI 500 were 3.31, 3.36, 3.59, 3.92. The trading volumes were 29259.00, 103171.00, 32896.00, 10967.00, and the positions were 51809.00, 179892.00, 88549.00, 20975.00. The changes in positions were - 995.00, 5740.00, 3581.00, 3280.00 [1] - IM Contracts: The previous two - day closing prices of IM contracts (IM当月, IM下月, IM下季, IM隔季) were 8318.00, 8292.60, 8119.20, 7952.00 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 8531.80, 8516.60, 8366.20, 8219.00. The price changes were 239.80, 252.80, 275.60, 295.00, and the corresponding price change rates of the CSI 1000 were 2.89, 3.06, 3.41, 3.72. The trading volumes were 39087.00, 128628.00, 39676.00, 15595.00, and the positions were 66131.00, 195577.00, 107740.00, 26555.00. The changes in positions were 3449.00, 8990.00, 4814.00, 6473.00 [1] - Inter - month Spreads: The current inter - month spreads of IF下月 - IF当月, IH下月 - IH当月, IC下月 - IC当月, IM下月 - IM当月 were 5.20, 5.40, 2.00, - 15.20 respectively, and the previous values were - 2.60, 4.20, - 4.00, - 25.40 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - CSI 300 Index: The previous value of the CSI 300 index was 4702.50, with a trading volume of 314.64 billion lots and a total trading amount of 7556.18 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 4723.71, with a trading volume of 274.20 billion lots and a total trading amount of 6902.35 billion yuan. The price change rate was - 0.45 [1] - SSE 50 Index: The previous value of the SSE 50 index was 3032.19, with a trading volume of 69.02 billion lots and a total trading amount of 2004.56 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 3053.13, with a trading volume of 62.92 billion lots and a total trading amount of 1934.11 billion yuan. The price change rate was - 0.69 [1] - CSI 500 Index: The previous value of the CSI 500 index was 8590.17, with a trading volume of 319.69 billion lots and a total trading amount of 6394.21 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 8387.60, with a trading volume of 268.81 billion lots and a total trading amount of 5461.38 billion yuan. The price change rate was 2.42 [1] - CSI 1000 Index: The previous value of the CSI 1000 index was 8470.74, with a trading volume of 393.04 billion lots and a total trading amount of 6819.48 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 8309.35, with a trading volume of 328.56 billion lots and a total trading amount of 5718.06 billion yuan. The price change rate was 1.94 [1] - Industry Indexes: The price change rates of different industries in the CSI 300 industry index were as follows: energy - 1.82%, raw materials 0.99%, industry 0.72%, optional consumption - 0.70%, major consumption - 0.23%, medical and health 0.10%, real estate and finance - 0.89%, information technology - 0.70%, telecommunications business - 3.13%, public utilities - 0.91 [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - IF Contracts and CSI 300: The previous values of IF当月 - CSI 300, IF下月 - CSI 300, IF下季 - CSI 300, IF隔季 - CSI 300 were 1.50, 6.70, - 14.90, - 55.50 respectively, and the previous two - day values were - 1.71, - 4.31, - 40.71, - 97.71 [1] - IH Contracts and SSE 50: The previous values of IH当月 - SSE 50, IH下月 - SSE 50, IH下季 - SSE 50, IH隔季 - SSE 50 were 0.21, 5.61, 3.81, - 26.19 respectively, and the previous two - day values were 3.87, 8.07, 4.47, - 27.33 [1] - IC Contracts and CSI 500: The previous values of IC当月 - CSI 500, IC下月 - CSI 500, IC下季 - CSI 500, IC隔季 - CSI 500 were 66.03, 68.03, - 11.37, - 99.17 respectively, and the previous two - day values were 16.41, 12.41, - 78.00, - 192.40 [1] - IM Contracts and CSI 1000: The previous values of IM当月 - CSI 1000, IM下月 - CSI 1000, IM下季 - CSI 1000, IM隔季 - CSI 1000 were 61.06, 45.86, - 104.54, - 251.74 respectively, and the previous two - day values were 8.65, - 16.75, - 190.15, - 357.35 [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic Indexes: The previous values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 4136.16, 14439.66, 8883.33, 3349.50 respectively, and the previous two - day values were 4122.58, 14327.05, 8822.34, 3328.65. The price change rates were 0.33%, 0.79%, 0.69%, 0.63% respectively [1] - Overseas Indexes: The previous values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 26749.51, 53846.87, 6915.61, 24900.71 respectively, and the previous two - day values were 26629.96, 53688.89, 6913.35, 24856.47. The price change rates were 0.45%, 0.29%, 0.03%, 0.18% respectively [1] 3.5 Macro Information - The "Several Measures of Beijing Municipality on Promoting the Development and Utilization of Commercial Satellite Remote - Sensing Data Resources (2026 - 2030)" encourages capable enterprises to conduct mergers and acquisitions of upstream and downstream satellite data enterprises, integrate and improve the ground station network and data application service industrial chain, and build leading enterprises with global competitiveness. It also supports enterprises in planning and building commercial satellite constellations with differentiated advantages, clear commercial value, and clear application prospects [2] - According to the National Bureau of Statistics' monitoring of the market prices of 50 important production materials in 9 major categories in the national circulation field, from mid - January to early January 2026, the prices of 29 products increased, 13 decreased, and 8 remained unchanged. The price of live pigs (external ternary) increased by 0.4 yuan/kg, a 3.2% increase [2] - During the Spring Festival, Sichuan Province will hold more than 2400 cultural, tourism, business, and sports activities and launch ten major boutique activities. The province's consumption discounts will exceed 40 million yuan, including 20 million yuan in cultural and tourism consumption vouchers, 16 million yuan in movie consumption vouchers, and 100,000 free scenic - spot tickets [2] - As of now, 8 banks in the A - share market have successively disclosed their 2025 performance reports, and all of these institutions achieved positive growth in net profit attributable to shareholders. The performance reports have three notable features: the asset scales of the 8 listed banks all expanded steadily, with small and medium - sized banks leading in growth; the non - performing loan ratio remained favorable, and no bank had an obvious rebound in the non - performing ratio; most banks increased their provision for bad debts, but the provision coverage ratio was still declining [2] - After the disclosure of the Q4 2025 fund reports, the latest positions of public FOFs, the "professional buyers", emerged. In Q4 last year, FOFs continued to favor low - risk products, and short - term financing ETFs became their top - held variety. Amid the record - high international gold prices, FOFs generally reduced their holdings of gold ETFs and instead significantly increased their holdings of gold - stock ETFs, showing a unique "gold - hunting" strategy [2] 3.6 Industry Information - The 2026 Beijing International Commercial Space Exhibition was held from January 23rd to 25th, and a number of star products and solutions representing the forefront of China's commercial space technology were on display. In the field of launch vehicles, LandSpace Technology exhibited models of the improved Zhuque - 2 liquid - oxygen methane launch vehicle and the reusable Zhuque - 3 launch vehicle [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission recently issued the "Opinions on Promoting the Healthy and Sustainable Development of Inter - city Railways", proposing to give priority to supporting the planning and construction of inter - city railways in key urban agglomerations with active economies and high population density, such as the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region, the Yangtze River Delta, the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao Greater Bay Area, and the Chengdu - Chongqing economic circle. It is strictly prohibited to build high - speed railways and urban rail transit projects in the name of inter - city railways. Projects with illegal debt - raising or without clear sources of debt repayment and operation subsidy funds will not be approved. Debt - high - risk regions are not allowed to increase local government debt for new inter - city railway projects [2] - As the Spring Festival approaches, the enthusiasm for "traveling south to avoid the cold" and duty - free shopping on Hainan Island continues to heat up, and ticket bookings have entered a peak period. Data from multiple online travel platforms show that Haikou and Sanya are among the top domestic destinations. Hainan Airport's passenger throughput during the 2026 Spring Festival travel season is expected to reach 8.175 million person - times, setting a new record for the same period [2] 3.7 Stock Index Views - U.S. stocks were mixed. In the previous trading day, stock indexes continued to diverge, with the power equipment sector leading the gains and the communication sector leading the losses. The market turnover was 3.12 trillion yuan. In terms of funds, on January 22nd, the margin trading balance increased by 3.972 billion yuan to 2.707543 trillion yuan [2]