中泰期货晨会纪要-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market showed a differentiated trend on Friday, with small - and medium - cap indexes rising and large - cap blue - chip indexes falling. The market sentiment was affected by news such as the possible visit of US President Trump to China and the release of the first fine by the CSRC in 2026 [15]. - The long - end bonds may continue to rebound, and the interest rate curve may continue to flatten. The central bank's monetary policy is turning to be more accommodative, but the cost of funds remains relatively high [16]. - The black market as a whole maintains a volatile trend. Steel products may fluctuate and consolidate in the short term, and iron ore is relatively weak and should be shorted on rallies [18]. - The prices of coking coal and coke may fluctuate and consolidate in the short term, and the supply - demand contradiction may improve during the Spring Festival [19][21]. - The medium - term price fluctuation center of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is rising slightly. It is recommended to go long on ferrosilicon on dips and hold short positions in silicomanganese [22]. - For soda ash and glass, it is advisable to wait and see currently. Pay attention to the supply changes of leading enterprises and the implementation of production line changes [23]. - For non - ferrous metals, it is recommended to wait and see for zinc and lead, and hold short positions in lead. Lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [25][26][28]. - Industrial silicon is under pressure at the upper limit and should wait for opportunities to sell out - of - the - money call options after a rebound. Polysilicon should wait for guidance on anti -内卷 and anti - monopoly rectification plans [29]. - For agricultural products, cotton prices may be affected by supply and demand and policies. Sugar prices are under pressure, and eggs may weaken before the Spring Festival. Apples may fluctuate strongly, and corn prices are affected by inventory and policy. Jujubes may fluctuate weakly, and pork prices are affected by supply and demand [31][34][36][38][39][40][41]. - For energy and chemical products, crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical factors and supply - demand contradictions. Fuel oil prices follow crude oil. Plastics may have a short - term rebound but with limited space. Rubber can sell out - of - the - money put options on dips. Methanol is recommended to be long - configured. Caustic soda has different views for near - term and far - term contracts. Asphalt prices follow crude oil. The polyester industry chain may maintain a high - level operation. LPG may be strong in the short term but with limited upside. Pulp and logs may fluctuate strongly, and urea is expected to be strongly volatile [43][46][48][50][52][53][54][55][56][57][58]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The CSRC officially released the guidelines for the performance comparison benchmarks of public funds, and the Asset Management Association of China released the operating rules, which will come into effect on March 1, 2026. The new rules target industry pain points such as "vague benchmarks", "style drift", and "fund blind boxes" [8]. - The CSRC issued its first fine in 2026, imposing a penalty on Yu Han for manipulating the stock price of "Doctor Glasses" [8]. - The market operation and consumption promotion work conference emphasized promoting the expansion and upgrading of commodity consumption and cultivating new growth points in service consumption [8]. - The CSRC is intensively investigating illegal activities in the private fund sector and will urge private institutions to rectify non - standard behaviors [9]. - The "Beijing Rocket Street" launched six platforms, aiming to form a full - chain "thousand - satellite production and launch" capacity [9]. - US President Trump said that the US is deploying troops to Iran and will impose a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran. The US also imposed a new round of sanctions on entities and vessels related to Iran's energy and shipping systems [9]. - Representatives from Russia, the US, and Ukraine held their first meeting in Abu Dhabi to discuss security issues [9]. - The preliminary values of the US manufacturing, service, and composite PMIs in January were slightly lower than expected. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly but remained in the contraction range, while the service PMI declined [10]. - The CSRC approved the registration of 20 - rubber options, low - sulfur fuel oil options, and international copper options and included 14 futures and options varieties in the scope of expanding the opening of the futures market [10]. - The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.75% and raised its economic growth and inflation expectations for the 2026 fiscal year [10]. - A German lawmaker proposed that Germany should repatriate its gold reserves from the US due to the "unpredictable" policies of US President Trump [11]. - Silver prices reached a new high, with a year - to - date increase of over 40%, outperforming gold. Gold prices continued to approach $5000 per ounce [11]. 3.2 Macro - Finance 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - The A - share market showed a differentiated trend on Friday, with small - and medium - cap indexes rising and large - cap blue - chip indexes falling. The market sentiment was affected by news such as the possible visit of US President Trump to China and the release of the first fine by the CSRC in 2026 [15]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The long - end bonds may continue to rebound, and the interest rate curve may continue to flatten. The central bank's monetary policy is turning to be more accommodative, but the cost of funds remains relatively high [16]. 3.3 Black 3.3.1 Steel and Iron Ore - The macro - policy meets market expectations, and the possibility of policy interference in the steel production end is low. The fundamentals of steel are acceptable, with small inventory increases and good order - taking. However, downstream demand is weak, especially in the building materials sector. Iron ore supply is abundant, and its inventory is accumulating [16][17]. - The black market as a whole maintains a volatile trend. Steel products may fluctuate and consolidate in the short term, and iron ore is relatively weak and should be shorted on rallies [18]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. The supply - demand contradiction may improve during the Spring Festival, which may support spot prices [19][21]. 3.3.3 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The medium - term price fluctuation center of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is rising slightly. It is recommended to go long on ferrosilicon on dips and hold short positions in silicomanganese [22]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash and glass, it is advisable to wait and see currently. Pay attention to the supply changes of leading enterprises and the implementation of production line changes [23]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Zinc - As of January 22, the domestic zinc inventory decreased. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies due to the repeated inventory data [25]. 3.4.2 Lead - As of January 22, the lead inventory reached a two - month high. It is recommended to wait and see and hold short positions. Be cautious of the risk of lead price decline before the Spring Festival [26][27]. 3.4.3 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with good demand and supply - side disturbances. The market expects a narrowing of the supply surplus or even a shortage in 2026 [28]. 3.4.4 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is under pressure at the upper limit and should wait for opportunities to sell out - of - the money call options after a rebound. Polysilicon should wait for guidance on anti -内卷 and anti - monopoly rectification plans [29]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - The global cotton supply and demand situation is favorable, with a decrease in production and inventory. The domestic cotton supply is temporarily abundant, and attention should be paid to the impact of pre - Spring Festival restocking and policy implementation [31][33]. 3.5.2 Sugar - Global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus in the 2025/26 season. Domestic sugar is under supply pressure, and it is recommended to trade in the low - level range [34]. 3.5.3 Eggs - Eggs may weaken before the Spring Festival. The futures of the 03 contract have limited upside space, and a bearish view is recommended. However, the egg - laying hen inventory is expected to decline, which may limit the downside space of futures [36][37]. 3.5.4 Apples - Apple prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term, with the supply side providing support and the demand side constraining the upside. Attention should be paid to the terminal consumption during the Spring Festival [38][39]. 3.5.5 Corn - Corn prices are expected to be stable in the short term, supported by pre - Spring Festival restocking demand. However, the upside space is limited, and attention should be paid to the selling pressure in March [39]. 3.5.6 Jujubes - Jujubes are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the market performance during the consumption peak season [40]. 3.5.7 Pigs - The pig market has both supply and demand increases, and the spot market is in a fierce game. It is recommended to pay attention to the impact of weight reduction before the Spring Festival on prices and consider shorting near - term contracts on rallies [41]. 3.6 Energy and Chemical Products 3.6.1 Crude Oil - Crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical factors and supply - demand contradictions. Geopolitical factors have pushed up prices, but the supply - demand situation remains weak [43]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices follow crude oil, and the current supply - demand situation has a marginal improvement. The focus is on the geopolitical situation in Iran [46]. 3.6.3 Plastics - Plastics have a large supply pressure and weak downstream demand. They may have a short - term rebound but with limited space [46][47]. 3.6.4 Rubber - Rubber can sell out - of - the money put options on dips before the Spring Festival, supported by downstream restocking and the approaching off - season in overseas production areas [48]. 3.6.5 Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate upward in the first half of the year, and it is recommended to go long on pullbacks [49]. 3.6.6 Methanol - Methanol's supply - demand situation has improved, and it is recommended to be long - configured. However, there may be a short - term callback risk [50]. 3.6.7 Caustic Soda - Caustic soda has different views for near - term and far - term contracts. The near - term contract is bearish, while the far - term contract is bullish [52]. 3.6.8 Asphalt - Asphalt prices follow crude oil, and attention should be paid to the change in raw material discounts [53]. 3.6.9 Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain may maintain a high - level operation, and it is recommended to consider low - buying and 5 - 9 positive spreads for PX and PTA [54]. 3.6.10 LPG - LPG may be strong in the short term but with limited upside. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback from the demand side [55]. 3.6.11 Pulp - Pulp prices may fluctuate strongly. The spot market is weak, but there is support from the expected price increase of overseas pulp [56]. 3.6.12 Logs - Logs may fluctuate strongly, with the domestic spot market remaining stable and the supply - demand situation expected to be balanced [57]. 3.6.13 Urea - Urea is expected to be strongly volatile, and attention should be paid to the improvement of spot market liquidity [58].