招商期货-期货研究报告：商品期货早班车-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry - wide investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall commodity market shows a complex situation with different trends and investment opportunities in various sectors such as precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. Each sector is affected by different supply - demand factors and geopolitical events. 3. Summary by Category Precious Metals - Market Performance: On Friday, precious metals continued to rise. London gold approached $5000 per ounce, and London silver price exceeded $100 per ounce [1]. - Fundamentals: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer indicated that Democrats would reject the spending plan if it includes DHS funding. India and the EU reached an agreement to lower auto import tariffs. Domestic gold had a significant inflow of 3.1 tons, and there were changes in inventories of gold and silver in different exchanges and ETFs [1]. - Trading Strategy: Suggest to go long on gold as Trump's policy changes trigger capital to sell US Treasuries. For silver, due to strong speculation and changing inventory situations, it is advised to participate cautiously [1]. Base Metals - Copper: - Market Performance: Copper price was strongly running on Friday [2]. - Fundamentals: The market was trading the de - dollarization caused by the Greenland dispute. Supply was tight, and there were mine strikes and blockades. Rio Tinto raised its production guidance. Demand was in the domestic downstream seasonal off - season [2]. - Trading Strategy: Suggest to buy on dips [2]. - Aluminum: - Market Performance: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract on Friday increased by 0.98% compared to the previous trading day, reaching 24,290 yuan/ton [2]. - Fundamentals: Aluminum smelters maintained high - load production. The weekly aluminum product operating rate increased slightly [2]. - Trading Strategy: Near the Spring Festival, multiple factors restrict price increases, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. - Alumina: - Market Performance: The closing price of the main alumina contract on Friday increased by 0.26% compared to the previous trading day, reaching 2724 yuan/ton [2]. - Fundamentals: Some alumina plants entered the production - reduction and rotation - maintenance stage. Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - Trading Strategy: The price rebound lacks fundamental support, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Follow the movement of the main funds [2][3]. - Industrial Silicon: - Market Performance: The main 05 contract closed at 8820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a closing price ratio of - 0.06% [3]. - Fundamentals: Supply decreased this week, and social and warehouse inventories increased slightly. Demand in the polysilicon and organosilicon industries was weakening [3]. - Trading Strategy: The price is expected to fluctuate between 8400 - 9200 yuan/ton. Consider going short lightly on rallies [3]. - Lithium Carbonate: - Market Performance: LC2605 closed at 181,520 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.5% [3]. - Fundamentals: Supply decreased due to some lithium salt plant overhauls. Demand in the lithium - related industries was also decreasing. Inventory was in a tight - balance situation [3]. - Trading Strategy: Due to supply concerns and demand for export rush, the price is expected to be more likely to rise than fall [3]. - Polycrystalline Silicon: - Market Performance: The main 05 contract closed at 50,720 yuan/ton, an increase of 205 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a closing price ratio of 0.41% [3]. - Fundamentals: Supply decreased, and inventory increased slightly. Demand in some sectors was weak, but component exports were expected to support the market [3]. - Trading Strategy: The price is expected to fluctuate between 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton in the short term [3]. - Tin: - Market Performance: Tin price reached a new high on Friday [3]. - Fundamentals: Supply was tight, and demand was strong as indicated by the high premium of deliverable brands [3]. - Trading Strategy: Suggest to buy on dips [3]. Black Industry - Rebar: - Market Performance: The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3150 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: Steel supply and demand were neutral, with significant structural differentiation. Rebar demand was weak, but supply also decreased. Plate demand was stable, and exports were high. Steel mills were in a loss - making situation, limiting production increase [5]. - Trading Strategy: Close short positions on the 2605 contract of rebar. The reference range for RB05 is 3120 - 3180 yuan/ton [5]. - Iron Ore: - Market Performance: The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 792 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: Iron ore supply and demand were neutral. Steel mill profits were poor, and blast furnace production might decrease. Supply followed seasonal patterns and increased slightly year - on - year. Port and steel mill inventories were at low levels [5]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. The reference range for I05 is 780 - 810 yuan/ton [5]. - Coking Coal: - Market Performance: The main 2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1143 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: Coking coal supply and demand were weak. Coke price adjustments occurred, and inventory was at different levels in different links [5]. - Trading Strategy: Close short positions. The reference range for JM05 is 1120 - 1170 yuan/ton [5]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: - Market Performance: CBOT soybeans rose slightly last Friday [6]. - Fundamentals: Supply was loose in the near - term and expected to be abundant in the long - term from South America. Demand for US soybean crushing was strong, and exports improved marginally [6]. - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to the weather in South America. The domestic market is expected to be range - bound, following the international cost - end [6]. - Corn: - Market Performance: Corn futures were strongly running, and spot prices in corn - producing areas mostly rose [6]. - Fundamentals: The grain - selling progress was over half, and farmers were reluctant to sell. Inventories at ports and downstream enterprises were lower than usual. Northeast deep - processing enterprises were eager to build inventories, and southern regions preferred imports [6]. - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a range due to limited supply - demand contradictions [6]. - Oils and Fats: - Market Performance: The Malaysian market declined last Friday [7]. - Fundamentals: Supply was in a weak seasonal reduction, and demand for exports improved. Overall, the near - term was loose, and the long - term was in a weak seasonal reduction [7]. - Trading Strategy: Oils and fats are expected to be strong in the short term. Continue the reverse - spread strategy. Pay attention to production and biodiesel policies in the medium term [7]. - Sugar: - Market Performance: ICE raw sugar 03 contract closed at 14.73 cents/pound, with a weekly decline of 1.73%. Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract closed at 5180 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.48% [7]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, the sugar - alcohol price difference was widening, and there was an expectation of reducing the sugar - alcohol ratio. Domestically, the sales progress was slow, and new sugar was mainly stored. SR05 was priced by imports and domestic production, and December imports added pressure [7]. - Trading Strategy: Close short positions and adopt a wait - and - see approach [7]. - Cotton: - Market Performance: ICE US cotton futures fluctuated and declined last Friday, and international crude oil first rose and then fell [7]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, US cotton export sales increased significantly. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton futures opened lower and fluctuated narrowly, and the downstream operating rate was stable, with inventories decreasing [7]. - Trading Strategy: Buy on dips, with the price range of 14,500 - 14,900 yuan/ton [7]. - Eggs: - Market Performance: Egg futures prices declined, and spot prices showed mixed trends [7]. - Fundamentals: The laying - hen inventory decreased, but the increase in egg prices at the end of the year led to better profits and more active replenishment. As the stocking period ended, supply increased and demand decreased, and egg prices might decline seasonally [7]. - Trading Strategy: Spot prices are expected to decline seasonally, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - Hogs: - Market Performance: Hog futures prices were weakly running, and weekend spot prices rose [7]. - Fundamentals: Supply and demand are expected to increase from the end of the month to before the Spring Festival. The current slaughter progress is slow, and there is greater pressure on future slaughter [7]. - Trading Strategy: Supply and demand are weakening, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - Apples: - Market Performance: The main contract closed at 9535 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.06%. Apple prices in Shandong Yantai Qixia were stable [7]. - Fundamentals: The previous production - reduction expectation was realized, and the market shifted from the supply side to the demand side. Supported by production reduction and low high - quality fruit rate, there is a bottom - line, but the Spring Festival stocking rhythm and alternative fruits limit the upside [7]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [7]. Energy Chemicals - LLDPE: - Market Performance: The main LLDPE contract rose slightly on Friday. The spot price in North China was 6700 yuan/ton, and the basis was weakening [8]. - Fundamentals: Supply pressure from domestic new - device production slowed down, and imports were expected to decrease slightly. Demand was in the off - season for agricultural films, and other areas' demand was stable [8]. - Trading Strategy: In the short term, the price is expected to be slightly strong and fluctuate, with the upside limited by the import window. In the medium term, suggest buying on dips [8]. - PVC: - Market Performance: V05 closed at 4935, an increase of 1.2% [8]. - Fundamentals: PVC spot prices declined, and the forward - looking futures prices rose. Supply was at a high level, and demand was seasonally weakening. Social inventory was accumulating [8]. - Trading Strategy: Suggest a reverse - spread strategy of selling 05 and buying 09 contracts [8]. - PTA: - Market Performance: PXCFR China price was $923/ton, and PTA East China spot price was 5285 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of - 76 yuan/ton [8]. - Fundamentals: PX supply was at a high level, and PTA supply was also high. Polyester factory load decreased, and downstream demand was in the off - season [8]. - Trading Strategy: PX has a strong price expectation but may face short - term callback pressure. PTA has a seasonal inventory build - up, and it is appropriate to take profits when the processing fee is high [8]. - Glass: - Market Performance: FG05 closed at 1069, an increase of 0.7% [8]. - Fundamentals: Glass prices were stable, demand was seasonally weakening, supply decreased, and inventory was accumulating. Downstream enterprises' orders and operating rates were low, and production was in a loss - making situation [8]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach or buy glass and sell soda ash [8]. - PP: - Market Performance: The main PP contract rose slightly on Friday. The spot price in East China was 6530 yuan/ton, and the basis was weakening [9]. - Fundamentals: Supply pressure increased slightly, and the export window opened. Demand was stable due to national subsidy policies [9]. - Trading Strategy: In the short term, the price is expected to be slightly strong and fluctuate, with the upside limited by the import window. In the long - term, the price is expected to fluctuate in a range, and it is advisable to go short on rallies [9]. - MEG: - Market Performance: MEG East China spot price was 3798 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of - 118 yuan/ton [9]. - Fundamentals: Supply was at a high level, and imports were expected to decrease. Polyester load decreased, and downstream demand was in the off - season [9]. - Trading Strategy: Short - sell the 05 contract on rallies [9]. - Crude Oil: - Market Performance: Oil prices fluctuated strongly this week due to cold weather in the US and the risk of military conflict in the Middle East. Next week, prices may fall if the production impact is small [9]. - Fundamentals: Supply pressure was large as OPEC+ maintained the non - increase plan, but other countries' production capacity was released. Demand was in the off - season, and inventory was accumulating [9]. - Trading Strategy: Do not chase the high price. Consider shorting lightly at high points or buying put options [9]. - Styrene: - Market Performance: The main EB contract fluctuated at a high level on Friday. The spot price in East China was 7900 yuan/ton [9]. - Fundamentals: Pure benzene supply was weak, and styrene supply and demand were both weak. Downstream enterprise inventories were high, but the operating rate increased [9]. - Trading Strategy: In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate widely, with the upside limited by the import window. In the second quarter, suggest buying styrene on dips or conducting a pure - benzene reverse - spread and buying styrene profit on dips [9]. Soda Ash - Market Performance: sa05 closed at 1190, unchanged [10]. - Fundamentals: The bottom price of soda ash was in a stalemate, and upstream orders were acceptable. Supply was large, and inventory was at a high level. Downstream demand from photovoltaic glass was weak, with high inventory [10]. - Trading Strategy: Suggest short - allocating due to increasing supply and weak demand [10].