中辉有色观点-20260126

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding, ★★ [1] - Silver: Long - term holding, ★★ [1] - Copper: Long - term holding, ★ [1] - Zinc: Rebound, ★ [1] - Lead: Under pressure, ★ [1] - Tin: Strong - biased, ★★ [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound, ★ [1] - Polysilicon: Rebound, ★ [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish, ★★ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical tensions, such as the Iran situation and Trump's actions, along with Fed - related factors, support the long - term strategic value of gold and silver [1][3] - Copper has supply constraints in the short - to - medium term, and its long - term outlook is positive due to supply shortages and growing green demand [1][5][6] - Zinc rebounds due to unexpected inventory reduction in the off - season and active enterprise restocking [1][7][9] - Aluminum's price rebound is under pressure due to inventory accumulation and demand differentiation [1][11][12] - Nickel's price rebound is under pressure because of overseas supply contraction and domestic high - inventory and weak - consumption conditions [1][14][16] - Lithium carbonate is cautiously bullish as supply is tight and demand is expected to increase [1][18][19] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Performance: COMEX gold futures rose 8.44% weekly, approaching the $5000 key psychological level; COMEX silver futures soared 16.63% weekly, breaking through the $100 mark [2] - Core Logic: Geopolitical tensions, Fed - related factors, and central bank gold - buying support long - term strategic value; silver follows gold's safe - haven property [1][3] - Strategy Recommendation: Long - term holding; domestic gold has short - term support at 1085, and domestic silver at 23150; long - term bullish in 2026 [1][3] Copper - Market Performance: Copper prices are oscillating strongly; for example, the closing price of SHFE copper main contract increased by 2.21% [4] - Core Logic: Japanese smelters face pressure in TC/RC negotiations, and Chile delays the peak of copper production; short - term supply is tight, and long - term demand from green sectors is strong [5] - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term, take profit on long positions; long - term, bullish; SHFE copper focuses on the range of [101500, 105500] yuan/ton, and LME copper on [13000, 13500] dollars/ton [6] Zinc - Market Performance: Zinc prices are rising; the closing price of SHFE zinc main contract increased by 0.51% [7] - Core Logic: Global zinc ore supply may shrink in 2026; domestic inventory reduction in the off - season exceeds expectations, and enterprises restock actively [8] - Strategy Recommendation: Take profit on long positions at high prices; enterprises should actively arrange selling hedging; SHFE zinc focuses on [24500, 24500] yuan/ton, and LME zinc on [3250, 3300] dollars/ton [9] Aluminum - Market Performance: Aluminum prices rebound under pressure, and alumina shows a slight stabilization trend [11] - Core Logic: The output of electrolytic aluminum increases, and inventory accumulates; the alumina market is in surplus [12] - Strategy Recommendation: Take profit and wait and see; pay attention to the change of aluminum ingot inventory; the main operation range is [23300 - 25300] [13] Nickel - Market Performance: Nickel prices rebound under pressure, and stainless steel rebounds and then falls [15] - Core Logic: Indonesia reduces nickel ore production targets, and domestic pure nickel inventory accumulates; stainless steel is in the off - season [16] - Strategy Recommendation: Take profit and wait and see; pay attention to Indonesian policies and stainless steel inventory; the main operation range of nickel is [135000 - 153000] [17] Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The main contract LC2605 opens and closes higher, hitting a new high [18] - Core Logic: Supply is tight due to reduced production and uncertain resumption of production; demand is expected to increase as downstream prepares for the Spring Festival [19] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold long positions in the range of [17300 - 185000] [20]