铁矿石：需求驱动趋弱，逢高空配为主

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - The short - term supply - demand contradiction of iron ore continues to accumulate, the support of restocking demand for prices weakens, supply is in the off - season but shows year - on - year high growth, price is restricted by industrial chain profits, and the restocking demand has entered the realization period. The short - term price peak has appeared, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [3]. - The strategy is to conduct range trading and sell covered call options [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Logic - Recently, the off - season characteristics of the black series are obvious and the macro - expectations are weak. Iron ore prices have fallen from high levels due to the expected increase in supply and the weakened demand affected by sudden safety incidents, coupled with the gradual weakening of restocking demand [3]. Supply - Current overseas ore shipments are in the off - season, with weekly shipments declining for three consecutive weeks. According to seasonal patterns, before mid - February, overseas ore shipments will continue to decline month - on - month but will be higher than the same period last year because of the low base caused by the hurricane in Australia last year. Domestic ore supply is also in the off - season. Overall, the supply side has entered a seasonally contracting phase, but the supply - side support needs an unexpected decline to increase [3]. Demand - Domestic demand has slightly rebounded, and the profitability of steel mills has slightly increased but is lower than the same period last year. The terminal is in the seasonal off - season, and steel mills have insufficient enthusiasm for resuming production. Overall, the rigid demand of steel mills is weak, the restocking demand is at the end stage, and its supporting effect is weakening at the margin. The Baotou Steel accident has a substantial impact on demand, and there is an expectation of further upgrading of safety production supervision [3]. Inventory - The inventory of imported ore at steel mills has increased for five consecutive weeks, but the seasonal restocking before the Spring Festival is in the second half, and the restocking support is weakening. Port inventory continues to accumulate and is at the highest level in the past five years. Coupled with the weakening of spot prices, steel mills have a weak willingness to purchase port spot. With the seasonal decline in arrivals and the support of restocking demand, it is expected that the short - term port inventory accumulation pressure will be alleviated but will still remain high [3].