Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the black sector first declined and then rose, showing overall weak performance. In terms of index fluctuations, the strength order of varieties was coke > hot-rolled coil > rebar > coking coal > iron ore. In the entire futures market, non-ferrous metals remained strong, chemicals strengthened collectively, while the black sector showed mediocre performance [4]. - Macro policy: Global uncertainty has intensified as the US imposed a new round of sanctions on Iran. Domestically, a package of policies on fiscal and financial coordination to promote domestic demand has been introduced. Industry pattern: Last week, steel demand declined month-on-month, and inventory accumulated seasonally. However, the absolute inventory is currently low. On the raw material side, downstream enterprises replenished their stocks before the festival, and inventory shifted to the middle and lower reaches [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison - The black sector first declined and then rose last week, showing overall weak performance [4][6]. 02 Futures Market Rise and Fall Comparison - Non-ferrous metals remained strong, and chemicals strengthened. The black sector showed mediocre performance [4][8]. 03 Spot Prices - Spot prices were stable with a weak trend, and iron ore had the largest decline [10]. 04 Profit and Valuation - The profitability rate of steel mills increased slightly, and the valuation of rebar futures was low. Rebar futures prices were slightly higher than the valley electricity cost of electric furnaces and lower than the flat electricity cost, with a low static valuation [5][13]. 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Steel demand declined month-on-month, and inventory accumulated seasonally. Currently, the absolute inventory is low, and the supply-demand contradiction is not significant [4][5][15]. 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Iron ore output remained stable. Steel mills started to replenish their stocks before the festival, and the inventory at steel mills and ports both increased. Iron ore shipments continued to decline, but based on previous shipment data, recent arrivals are still at a high level. It is expected to remain in an inventory accumulation pattern in the short term, with the support being the large discount of iron ore futures [5][24]. 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Raw coal output increased, and coking coal inventory continued to accumulate. Although coking plants started to replenish their stocks before the festival, mines had difficulty in destocking and still had a slight inventory increase [5][27]. 08 Coke Supply and Demand - Coke output remained flat, and inventory shifted to the middle and lower reaches. Currently, the profit of coking plants is low. Recently, some coking plants proposed the first round of price increases, but coke futures have a premium over the spot [5][29]. 09 Variety Spreads - The rebar-iron ore ratio increased, and the hot-rolled coil-rebar spread widened [31]. 10 Key Data/Policy/News - In 2025, China's GDP increased by 5.0% year-on-year, exceeding 140 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan. - The central bank governor said that in 2026, the People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, with promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as important considerations for monetary policy. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. - A package of policies on fiscal and financial coordination to promote domestic demand has been introduced, including the establishment of a 500 billion yuan special guarantee plan for private investment for the first time, guiding banks to newly issue 500 billion yuan in loans for private investment in small and medium-sized enterprises. - Recently, five departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Carrying out the Construction of Zero-Carbon Factories", aiming to gradually expand zero-carbon factory construction to industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, building materials, and textiles by 2030, exploring new paths for carbon reduction in traditional high-energy-consuming industries. - In 2025, China's crude steel output was 960.81 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%; pig iron output was 836.04 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0%; steel output was 1.44612 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%. - On January 23 local time, the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control announced a new round of sanctions on multiple entities and vessels related to Iran's energy and shipping systems, targeting the shipping and management network assisting Iran's oil, energy, and derivatives exports. - On January 21, Trump posted on social media that he had formulated a framework for an agreement on Greenland with NATO Secretary-General Rutte, so he would not implement the tariff increase measures on 8 European countries originally scheduled to take effect on February 1. - The final annualized quarterly growth rate of the US GDP in the third quarter of 2025 was 4.4%, higher than the initial value of 4.3%, hitting the fastest growth rate in nearly two years. - The global bond market has experienced large-scale selling, and concerns about fiscal spending, new tariff threats, and doubts about the safe-haven status of US Treasuries have jointly triggered market volatility [38].
黑色：市场氛围偏好黑色震荡延续
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2026-01-26 03:13