申万期货品种策略日报-铂、钯-20260126

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The long - term bullish logic for platinum and palladium is solid, driven by the resonance of macro - finance and industrial fundamentals. Although there are short - term fluctuations due to Trump's policy swings and geopolitical news, the core upward momentum remains intact, and the medium - and long - term upward trend is clear [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - For platinum futures (pt2606, pt2608, pt2610), the current prices are 685.90, 682.55, and 681.50 respectively, with price increases of 64.55, 60.55, and 59.05 and increases of 10.39%, 9.73%, and 9.49% respectively. The trading volumes are 25095, 861, and 508, and the open interests are all 11180 [1] - For palladium futures (pd2606, pd2608, pd2610), the current prices are 497.95, 499.60, and 501.00 respectively, with price increases of 19.05, 19.40, and 13.65 and increases of 3.98%, 4.04%, and 2.80% respectively. The trading volumes are 11027, 292, and 42, and the open interests are all 4087 [1] Spot Market - For platinum in Shanghai, the previous closing price was 681.50, with a price increase of 57.10 and an increase of 0.091%. For London platinum, the previous closing price was 2705.00, with a price increase of 198.00 and an increase of 0.079%. For Zhou Dafu platinum, the previous closing price was 1051.00, with a price increase of 96.00 and an increase of 0.101%. For Lao Fengxiang platinum, the previous closing price was 950.00, with a price increase of 90.00 and an increase of 0.105% [1] - For Chinese palladium, the previous closing price was 470.00, with a price increase of 25.00 and an increase of 0.056%. For Russian palladium, the previous closing price was 4569.11, with a price decrease of 83.81 and a decrease of 0.018% [1] Inventory - For platinum, the NYMEX inventory remains at 665,888.20 ounces, the registered warehouse receipts decreased by 3784.0 ounces to 338,089.85 ounces. The trading volume of the Gold Exchange decreased by 6.0 kilograms to 2.00 kilograms, and the trading value decreased by 363.2 million yuan to 136.30 million yuan [1] - For palladium, the NYMEX inventory and registered warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 216,266.31 ounces and 144,029.47 ounces respectively [1] Related Derivatives and Indexes - The current value of the US dollar index is 97.51, a decrease of 0.7725 from the previous value. The S&P 500 index is at 6,915.61, an increase of 2.2600. The US Treasury yield is 4.24, a decrease of 0.0200. The Nasdaq index is 23,501.24, an increase of 65.2200. The Dow Jones index is 49,098.71, a decrease of 285.3000. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 6.99, a decrease of 0.0090 [1] - For Shanghai gold futures (2604, 2606, 2608), the current prices are 1115.64, 1118.38, and 1121.02 respectively, with price increases of 28.06, 28.00, and 28.00. For Shanghai silver futures (2604, 2606, 2608), the current prices are 24965.00, 24930.00, and 24929.00 respectively, with price increases of 1626, 1633, and 1647 [1] Macroeconomic News - The successor to the Fed Chair is a market concern. Trump may announce the new candidate this week, and Rick Rieder of BlackRock has a 50% chance of being nominated, up from 4%. [2] - The Greenland crisis has taken a turn. Trump reached an agreement framework on Greenland with NATO Secretary - General Lute. The original tariff measures will not be implemented, leading to a sharp rise in US stocks and a plunge in spot silver. The EU emergency summit will be held on January 22 [2] - The US Trade Representative hopes to have another round of trade negotiations with China, and China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson called for implementing the consensus of the two heads of state [2] - The People's Bank of China held a payment and settlement work meeting in 2026, aiming to promote the high - quality development of the modern payment system, including building the RMB cross - border payment system, strengthening regulatory measures, and improving service quality [2] Analysis of Platinum and Palladium - On the macro level, Powell's criminal prosecution weakens the US dollar's credit, increasing the pressure on US Treasury bonds. The global de - dollarization process speeds up, enhancing the reserve and hedging value of platinum and palladium. The Polish central bank's gold - buying plan supports the precious metals sector. The expected Fed rate cuts will boost platinum and palladium valuations, and the Greenland geopolitical risk provides short - term support for hedging demand [2] - On the industrial side, platinum has strong upward momentum. The hydrogen energy industry boom drives up demand, and the supply is constrained by South African production capacity. Palladium is affected by electrification but has demand support from hybrid vehicle penetration and emission policies, with a tight spot market balancing prices [2]