宏观金融数据日报-20260126

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - Despite policy cooling, market liquidity remains abundant, and the speculation sentiment for small and medium - cap stocks is still strong. The regulatory orientation balances short - term market rhythm guidance and long - term stable growth, and short - term fluctuations are not expected to change the medium - to - long - term upward trend of stock indices [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate and Bond Market - Interest Rate Changes: DROO1 closed at 1.40 with a - 1.88bp change, DR007 at 1.49 with a - 1.39bp change, GC001 at 1.29 with a - 24.00bp change, GC007 at 1.55 with a - 0.50bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.60 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change [4] - Bond Yield Changes: 1 - year Treasury bond yield was 1.28 with a - 0.70bp change, 5 - year at 1.60 with a - 1.01bp change, 10 - year at 1.83 with a - 0.44bp change, and 10 - year US Treasury bond at 4.24 with a - 2.00bp change [4] - Central Bank Operations: Last week, the central bank conducted 1181 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations. With 951.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net injection was 229.5 billion yuan. On Friday, 150 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits matured, and the central bank conducted 900 billion yuan of MLF operations. This week, 1181 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 200 billion yuan of MLF will mature on Monday [4][5] 3.2 Stock Index Market - Stock Index Closing Prices and Changes: The CSI 300 closed at 4702 with a - 0.45% change, the SSE 50 at 3032 with a - 0.69% change, the CSI 500 at 8590 with a 2.42% change, and the CSI 1000 at 8471 with a 1.94% change. Their corresponding futures contracts also had respective price changes [6] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all saw increases in trading volume and open interest. For example, IF trading volume increased by 22.5% to 140482, and its open interest increased by 3.5% to 299730 [6] - Last Week's Stock Index Performance: The CSI 300 fell 0.62% to 4702.5, the SSE 50 fell 1.54% to 3032.2, the CSI 500 rose 4.34% to 8590.2, and the CSI 1000 rose 2.89% to 8470.7. In the Shenwan primary industry index, building materials (9.2%), steel (7.3%), basic chemicals (7.3%), non - ferrous metals (6%), and real estate (5.2%) led the gains, while banks (- 2.7%), communications (- 2.1%), non - bank finance (- 1.5%), food and beverages (- 1.4%), and pharmaceutical biology (- 0.4%) led the losses. The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week decreased by 666.12 billion yuan compared to the previous week [6] - ETF Fund Flows: From January 12th to January 21st, various broad - based ETFs had significant outflows. The CSI 300 theme ETF had a net outflow of over 220 billion yuan, the CSI 1000 theme ETF had a net outflow of over 57 billion yuan, the SSE 50 and STAR 50 theme ETFs both had net outflows of over 40 billion yuan, and the ChiNext Index and CSI 500 theme ETFs also had net outflows of over 25 billion yuan [7] 3.3 Futures Contract Premium and Discount - IF Premium and Discount: The current - month contract had a - 0.45% premium/discount, the next - month contract - 0.96%, the current - quarter contract 0.80%, and the next - quarter contract 1.83% [8] - IH Premium and Discount: The current - month contract had a - 0.10% premium/discount, the next - month contract - 1.25%, the current - quarter contract - 0.32%, and the next - quarter contract 1.34% [8] - IC Premium and Discount: The current - month contract had a - 10.79% premium/discount, the next - month contract - 5.35%, the current - quarter contract 0.33%, and the next - quarter contract 1.79% [8] - IM Premium and Discount: The current - month contract had a - 10.12% premium/discount, the next - month contract - 3.66%, the current - quarter contract 3.11%, and the next - quarter contract 4.60% [8]