聚烯烃周报：化工品市场情绪较好，价格重心上移-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by geopolitical factors, the center of crude oil prices has shifted upward, production profits are poor, and the cost side provides support. The operating rate is at a relatively low level compared to the same period, resulting in a short - term low supply. Although it is a seasonal off - peak season, policies such as the year - end sales push in the automotive and home appliance sectors and the halving of the purchase tax for new energy vehicles have boosted demand, and the downstream operating rate is higher than that of last year. Polyolefin inventories are not high, and the sentiment in the chemical market is positive, so the center of polyolefin prices may move upward [10]. - For futures and options strategies, short - term long positions are recommended [10]. - Regarding the PP unilateral strategy, due to large new PP production capacities and weak downstream demand, the medium - to - long - term trend of PP is relatively weak. However, in the short term, supply is low, inventories are not high, and the chemical market sentiment is positive. The current advice is to short PP but temporarily wait and see [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Overview 3.1.1 Inventory - China's polyethylene production enterprise sample inventory is expected to be around 320,000 tons, and the inventory is expected to continue its downward trend. This is mainly because production enterprises face certain shipment pressure near the end of the month and are expected to actively reduce inventory. China's polypropylene production enterprise inventory is expected to be around 440,000 tons, an increase from the current level [9]. 3.1.2 Supply - This week, plants such as Maoming Petrochemical, Shanghai Petrochemical, and Sinochem Quanzhou are scheduled to restart, and new planned maintenance plants include Daqing Petrochemical and Yangzi Petrochemical. Overall production is expected to increase, with the next - period total production expected to be 734,800 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons from the current total production. China's total polypropylene production is estimated to be 788,000 tons, continuing to increase and maintaining an upward trend [9]. 3.1.3 Demand - This week, the overall operating rate of PE downstream industries has slightly declined. Factories' expected new orders are limited, and the long - term contract consumption at the terminal is almost over. The focus is on fulfilling pre - holiday orders. In the automotive and home appliance sectors, the year - end sales push and policies such as the halving of the purchase tax for new energy vehicles have boosted the demand for modified PP materials. Coupled with the stocking demand for small home appliances, it has supported the recovery of modified PP orders [9]. 3.1.4 Industrial Chain Profit - The profits of oil - based PE and PP remain in a loss state. The profit of ethylene - based PE has decreased, the loss of propylene - based PP profit has widened, and the loss of PDH - based PP is still significant. The cost side provides support [9]. 3.2 PP Unilateral Strategy - Strategy: Short PP. As of January 22nd, the price was in a high - level oscillation at 6,624 yuan. - Logic: PP has large new production capacities and weak downstream demand, so the medium - to - long - term trend of PP is relatively weak. However, in the short term, supply is low, inventories are not high, and the chemical market sentiment is positive. - Operation advice: Temporarily wait and see [13]. 3.3 Supply Side 3.3.1 PE Production - This week, the overall production of PE is expected to increase. The next - period total production is expected to be 734,800 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons from the current total production [9]. 3.3.2 PP Production - China's total polypropylene production is estimated to be 788,000 tons, continuing to increase and maintaining an upward trend [9]. 3.3.3 PE and PP Imports - Relevant data charts show the import volume of PE and PP from 2021 to 2025, but no specific data analysis for the current period is provided [86]. 3.3.4 PE and PP Capacity Analysis - PE has maintained high - speed capacity growth in the past 5 years, with an average annual capacity growth rate of up to 12%. In 2025, the new production capacity was 5.43 million tons, and the capacity base increased to 41.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. In 2026, the planned PE production capacity to be put into operation is 9.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.45%. Considering the poor production profit, the actual production volume put into operation may be about half [92][100]. - PP has also maintained high - speed capacity growth in the past 5 years, with an average annual capacity growth rate of up to 11%. In 2025, China's realized PP production capacity was about 4.555 million tons, and the capacity base increased to 49.165 million tons, an increase of 10.2% compared to 2024. In 2026, the planned PP production capacity to be put into operation is 9.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.1%. Considering the poor production profit, the actual production volume put into operation may be about half [98][102]. 3.4 Demand Side 3.4.1 PE/PP Downstream Operating Rate - The overall operating rate of PE downstream industries has slightly declined this week. Factories' expected new orders are limited, and the long - term contract consumption at the terminal is almost over. The focus is on fulfilling pre - holiday orders. In the automotive and home appliance sectors, the year - end sales push and policies such as the halving of the purchase tax for new energy vehicles have boosted the demand for modified PP materials. Coupled with the stocking demand for small home appliances, it has supported the recovery of modified PP orders [9]. 3.4.2 PE/PP Exports - Relevant data charts show the export volume of PE and PP from 2021 to 2025, but no specific data analysis for the current period is provided [127]. 3.4.3 Plastics Products - Relevant data charts show the production volume of plastics products, the inventory of the rubber and plastics products industry, the year - on - year monthly growth rate of automobile and home appliance production, the export volume of home appliances, the domestic automobile production volume, and the automobile export volume from 2021 to 2025, but no specific data analysis for the current period is provided [130][131][136].