原油周报：地缘反复，短线走强-20260126

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall supply and demand of crude oil still tend to be in surplus, but recent trends are still affected by geopolitical factors between the US and Iran and weather conditions in Europe and the US. The medium - to long - term outlook is still bearish, but short - term attention should be paid to the pulsed bullish impact of geopolitics. It is recommended to hold long call option positions for protection, with the resistance level of the SC2603 contract at 450 - 460 yuan/barrel [8] Summary by Directory Supply - Drilling Quantity: As of December last year, the global active oil and gas rig count was 1,782, a decrease of 30 from the previous month and 82 from the same period last year. Among them, the number of US rigs was 546, a decrease of 3 from the previous month and 43 from the same period last year [27] - OPEC and Saudi Arabia's Crude Oil Production: In December, the total OPEC+ crude oil production was 42.831 million barrels per day, a decrease of 238,000 barrels per day from the previous month. OPEC's crude oil production was 28.564 million barrels per day, an increase of 105,000 barrels per day from the previous month. Saudi Arabia's crude oil production was 10.078 million barrels per day, an increase of 27,000 barrels per day from the previous month [8][31] - US Crude Oil Production: As of the week of January 16, US crude oil production was 13.732 million barrels per day, a decrease of 21,000 barrels per day from the previous week and an increase of 248,000 barrels per day from the same period last year. US shale oil production in December was 9.22 million barrels per day, accounting for about 66% of total crude oil production [47] - China's Crude Oil Production and Imports: In 2025, China's cumulative crude oil production was 216 million tons, a 2.1% decrease from the previous month and a 1.54% increase from the same period last year. Cumulative crude oil imports were 522 million tons, a 4.4% increase from the previous year [51] Demand - Crude Oil Demand: In 2025, the global crude oil demand was 104 million barrels per day, a 0.43% increase from the previous month and a 1.10% increase from the same period last year. China's apparent crude oil consumption in 2025 was 791 million tons, a 3.44% increase from the previous year [58] - Refinery Utilization Rates: As of the week of January 16, the US refinery utilization rate was 93.3%, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 7.4 percentage points from the same period last year. The US refineries will enter the spring maintenance period, and the utilization rate may gradually decline. China's refinery utilization rate was 71.42%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 1.75 percentage points from the same period last year [62] - Refined Oil Production and Exports: In 2025, China's cumulative gasoline production from January to December was 162.8 million tons, a 5.07% decrease from the previous year; cumulative gasoline exports were 8.0128 million tons, a 17.7% decrease from the previous year. Cumulative diesel production was 209.6 million tons, a 4.55% decrease from the previous year; cumulative diesel exports were 6.68 million tons, a 16.6% decrease from the previous year. Cumulative kerosene production was 61.6166 million tons, a 5.76% increase from the previous year; cumulative kerosene exports were 21.8231 million tons, a 14.61% increase from the previous year [70][76][80] - Automobile and Truck Production: In 2025, China's cumulative automobile production was 34.531 million, a 10.4% increase from the previous year. Among them, cumulative new energy vehicle production was 16.626 million, a 29% increase from the previous year. The new energy vehicle industry in China has developed rapidly since 2020, having a certain substitution effect on traditional oil product demand [85] Inventory - OECD and Global In - Transit Crude Oil Inventory: According to the OPEC monthly report in January, OECD's commercial oil inventory in November increased by 4 million barrels month - on - month (with crude oil increasing by 8.1 million barrels and refined oil decreasing by 4.1 million barrels), 77.6 million barrels higher than the same period last year and slightly 0.3 million barrels higher than the five - year average. The global in - transit crude oil inventory remained at a high level [91] - US Crude Oil and Refined Oil Inventory: As of the week of January 16, US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 3.602 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 1.478 million barrels. The EIA gasoline inventory increased by 5.977 million barrels, and distillate fuel oil inventory increased by 3.348 million barrels. Due to the weakening of refinery utilization rates and weak terminal consumption, refined oil inventories continued to accumulate [93][96] - China's Crude Oil Inventory: China's crude oil port inventory continued to decline, and the inventory was higher than the same period last year. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory remained stable at a low level [101] Market - International and Domestic Crude Oil Prices: Last week, international crude oil prices first rose and then fell, and the main contracts were at the lowest level in recent years during the same period. The domestic SC crude oil mainly followed the trend of international crude oil. The B - W spread weakened slightly last week and was higher than the same period last year. The SC - Oman spread rebounded and was lower than the same period last year [16][21][23]