液化石油气（LPG）投资周报：地缘、寒潮驱动再生，PDH利润季节性修复-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for LPG is "short - term bullish", but it is recommended that investors mainly short at high levels [4]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the fermentation of cold snaps and geopolitical conflicts drives the upward movement of PG, but the actual increase in the futures market is limited. Coupled with a significant decline in the PDH operating rate and a notable weakening of chemical demand, it is advisable for investors to short at high levels [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of LPG futures rebounded after a decline, with a fluctuation range of 4,030 - 4,220 yuan/ton. International crude oil and LPG prices continued to rise, but the domestic market supply kept increasing. Although the volume of imported ships decreased, some terminals sold resources. Downstream resistance to high prices led to a decline in market prices. Additionally, domestic chemical demand decreased, and combustion demand was mediocre, resulting in a lack of market confidence and a downward shift in the overall trading center [6]. 3.2 Influencing Factors of LPG 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, the total commercial volume of LPG was about 528,500 tons (a 2.13% change), including 228,200 tons of civil gas (a 5.80% change), 186,400 tons of industrial gas (a - 1.53% change), and 164,200 tons of ether - post C4 (a - 1.74% change). The arrival volume of LPG last week was 490,000 tons (a - 9.83% change). A refinery in the southwest and a local refinery in Shandong resumed supply, and some enterprises reduced self - use, leading to an increase in supply. There were no news of start - up or shutdown this week, but the increment would continue to affect supply, and the supply might increase [4]. 3.2.2 Demand - In winter, heating demand remained stable, and the combustion demand for LPG gradually improved, reaching a relatively high level. Before the Spring Festival, the load of PDH plants gradually decreased, and the plant profit loss was repaired. The propane procurement demand of port chemical enterprises was relatively rigid, but there were news of plant production cuts recently, and the expected operating rate would gradually decline, causing the propane chemical demand to fall. The MTBE profit was in a loss state, the overseas olefin blending oil demand slowed down, the domestic export window closed, most orders had been executed, and the high - operating rate of refineries was difficult to maintain, thus suppressing the price trend of civil gas [4]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Last week, the in - plant inventory of LPG was 165,200 tons (a 5.42% change), and the port inventory was 1,996,800 tons (a - 1.53% change). Affected by widespread snow and increased supply, some local manufacturers had difficulty in shipping, leading to an increase in the refinery storage capacity ratio. The number of arriving ships at the port decreased, remaining at a low level, and the continuous shortage of imported resources meant that the terminals mainly consumed inventory. With the decline in chemical demand and limited arriving ships, the terminal shipping volume was small, and some terminals stopped shipping, so the demand showed a narrowing trend. With a low arrival volume, the port inventory continued to decline this period [4]. 3.2.4 Basis and Position - The weekly average basis was 317.80 yuan/ton in East China, 715.40 yuan/ton in South China, and 359.40 yuan/ton in Shandong. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts was 5,898 lots, with no change, and the lowest deliverable area was East China [4]. 3.2.5 Chemical Downstream - The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation were 62.25%, 58.15%, and 37.41% respectively. The profits of PDH to propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong were - 438.18 yuan/ton, - 203 yuan/ton respectively [4]. 3.2.6 Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was 1.29 (a 0.19% change), and the PG spread between the main and secondary months was - 278 yuan/ton (a 14.88% change). In the fourth quarter, gas prices were firm, while crude oil showed a bearish trend, and the oil - gas cracking spread had a weakening trend [4]. 3.2.7 Other Factors - The EIA crude oil inventory in the US last week increased by 3.6 million barrels more than expected, and the IEA maintained its expectation of a loose crude oil supply in 2026. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council announced that Sinopec and China National Aviation Fuel would be reorganized. The news of the US's strike against Iran fermented again, and the geopolitical situations in the Middle East and Russia - Ukraine were tense. The cold snap caused a 60% surge in natural gas prices, leading to a short - term jump in oil and gas prices. Events such as the Trump administration's attempt to occupy Greenland and seize Russian oil tankers fermented again, causing market panic about geopolitics [4]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Short at high levels. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the PG3 - 4 reverse spread, long SC and short PG, long PP and short PG to make profits from PDH [4].