黑色金属数据日报-20260126

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Report Core Views - The overall black market is in a range - bound oscillation, with no strong expectations for market drivers and valuations [3]. - The fundamentals of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon continue to be under pressure, and there is a high risk of a subsequent decline [4]. - The coking coal and coke sector oscillates, with insufficient spot - driven factors, and it is advisable to cash in on the spot and short on the futures after a rally [5]. - Iron ore is in a short - term oscillatingly strong pattern, but there is obvious upward pressure in the medium and long term [6][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The spot market price of steel is stable, and the trading enthusiasm is average. The futures market is in a range - bound oscillation. Seasonal factors lead to a weakening of demand, and the support for the market is limited [3]. - Steel mills have a willingness to resume production, but the actual resumption may be slow. The willingness of traders to conduct open - position winter storage is not strong, and it is more suitable to participate through basis trading [3]. - The certainty of the increase in hot metal production increases, and there is support at low prices. The basis of hot - rolled coils is favorable for spot - futures arbitrage, and the spot - futures positive arbitrage of hot - rolled coils can still be rolled [3][7]. Silicon - Iron and Manganese - Silicon - The prices of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon have rebounded with market sentiment, and there are occasional supply - side disturbance rumors [4]. - The demand is poor, and the overall demand is difficult to improve in the short term. The supply is high, and the medium - term over - supply pressure remains [4]. - Although there are policy benefits and cost support, the expectations are prone to fluctuations, and there is a high risk of a subsequent decline. Industrial customers are advised to hedge at high prices [4][7]. Coking Coal and Coke - The first round of coke price increase has been shelved, the downstream procurement has become more cautious, and the market trading sentiment has cooled down. The price of coking coal has a slight increase, but the market transaction is still weak [5]. - The futures of coking coal and coke oscillate weakly. In the off - season, the industrial data is weak, and there is neither excessive spot pressure nor strong upward or downward drivers [5]. - The supply of coal mines has continued to recover, and the inventory pressure is not large. However, after the first - round coke price increase was shelved, the market sentiment has weakened. It is advisable to cash in on the spot at high prices before the Spring Festival and wait for short - selling opportunities on the futures after a rally [5][7]. Iron Ore - The in - plant inventory of steel mills is at a relatively low level in recent years. The expectation of steel mill复产 in February and pre - Spring Festival restocking support the short - term high price of iron ore [6][9]. - After the restocking expectation is fully digested, the port inventory pressure will become the root cause of the weakening of iron ore prices. It is recommended that short - term investors consider going long at low prices, and long - term investors short at pressure levels [6][9].