化工周期迎来拐点，BD、BR弹性显著放大

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a long - term bullish rating on butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The chemical cycle has reached an inflection point, and the elasticity of BD/BR has significantly increased. With strong fundamental support for butadiene, the "high -开工, high - inventory" situation of cis - butadiene rubber continues, the number of warehouse receipts increases, and both spot and futures prices rise. It is expected that the price of synthetic rubber still has further upward room [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market dropped significantly and then rebounded rapidly this week, with the spot price ranging from 11,200 to 12,200 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the week, the spot and mainstream supply prices fell continuously due to various factors. In the middle and late weeks, the price of raw materials increased significantly, leading to a rapid disappearance of the bearish sentiment in the spot market [4] 3.2 Supply Analysis - Butadiene: The weekly output was [data unclear] tons last week, with a capacity utilization rate of [data unclear]%. Some plants such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, and Yanshan Petrochemical remained shut down, and the output release was limited. Maoming Petrochemical's plant restarted gradually [3]. - Cis - butadiene rubber: Some private cis - butadiene plants in the north had production conversion and slight load reduction. Maoming Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber plant was under maintenance and was expected to restart at the beginning of the next cycle [3] 3.3 Demand Analysis - Semi - steel tires: There was some stocking behavior in the all - season tire market for the pre - Spring Festival demand peak. The trading volume of snow tires increased slightly due to low - temperature weather, but the terminal demand still needed further stimulation from snowfall [3] - All - steel tires: The market transaction was dull. In December, the industry stocked up a lot to complete purchase tasks. Currently, it is in the off - season, and the inventory digestion is slow. The secondary purchase ability is insufficient this month, and the industry focuses on payment collection [3] 3.4 Inventory Analysis - Butadiene: The port inventory last week was 34,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22.65%. The East China port showed a continuous destocking trend, and it is expected to continue due to reduced arrivals and lower capacity utilization [3] - Cis - butadiene rubber: The total inventory of enterprises and traders was 35,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.32%. The inventory of producers increased, while that of traders decreased, with a slight overall inventory build - up, and the warehouse receipt inventory pressure was high [3] 3.5 Price and Profit Analysis - Price: The prices of butadiene, cis - butadiene rubber, and styrene - butadiene rubber all increased this week. For example, the ex - factory price of butadiene in Dalian Hengli increased by 950 yuan/ton from January 19th to January 23rd, with a weekly increase of 10.15% [7][8] - Profit: The production profit of butadiene oxidation - dehydrogenation was 1,260 yuan/ton, and that of C4 extraction was 2,944.06 yuan/ton. The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 615 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of - 4.62% [3] 3.6 Investment and Trading Strategy - Investment view: Bullish in the medium and long term [3] - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, maintain an appropriate long position and beware of the risk of capital profit - taking and price correction. For arbitrage, focus on going long BR and shorting NR/RU. Pay attention to downstream demand, cost changes, plant maintenance, and geopolitical situations [3]