国贸期货塑料数据周报-20260126

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for both PE and PP is "oscillation", indicating that in the short - term, the market is expected to have an amplitude between - 5% and 5% [3][4] 2. Report's Core View - The short - term market for both PE (LLDPE) and PP lacks obvious driving forces, and it is expected that the market will mainly move in an oscillatory pattern [3][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs PE Fundamental Changes Supply - This week, China's total polyethylene production was 69.89 tons, a 4.34% increase from last week, and the capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 84.67%, a 3.07 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. Although there were new maintenance plans in some enterprises, the restart of 10 previously shut - down units led to an increase in capacity utilization [3] Demand - The average operating rate of downstream products of Chinese LLDPE/LDPE decreased by 0.9% compared with the previous period, and the average operating rate of downstream polyethylene products decreased by 0.3%. The cumulative import volume in 2025 was 13.407 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.21%. In December 2025, the import volume was 1.3299 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.62% and a month - on - month increase of 25.21% [3] Inventory - The sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 335,000 tons, a 4.37% decrease from the previous period, and the sample inventory of polyethylene social warehouses was 477,400 tons, a 1.43% decrease from the previous period. The inventory decline was mainly due to production enterprises' price cuts to reduce inventory [3] Cost - The oil - based production cost increased by 4 yuan/ton compared with the previous period, while the coal - based, ethylene - based, methanol - based, and ethane - based production costs decreased by 33, 129, 244, and 66 yuan/ton respectively [3] Profit - The import profit of LLDPE, HDPE, and LDPE decreased compared with the previous period. The overall profit of PE was lower than the same period last year [3][26] Import and Export - PE exports were better than the same period last year [29] PP Fundamental Changes Capacity and Production - This week, the domestic polypropylene production was 784,900 tons, a 0.53% increase from last week and a 9.36% increase from the same period last year. The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene was 76.02%, a 0.40% increase from the previous period [4] Inventory - The total commercial inventory of Chinese polypropylene decreased by 2.21% from the previous period, the production enterprise inventory increased by 0.43%, the inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased by 6.15%, and the inventory of sample port enterprises decreased by 7.51%. Overall, the inventory at various levels was higher than the same period last year, except for port inventory which was lower [4][47][54] Downstream Demand - The downstream demand for PP showed significant divergence. The average operating rate of polypropylene increased by 0.34 percentage points to 52.87%. As the temperature dropped, the demand in downstream industries such as plastic weaving and transparent PP entered a seasonal off - season [4] Cost and Profit - This week, the profits of oil - based, coal - based, methanol - based, and PDH - based PP production were restored, while the profit of PP production from externally purchased propylene declined. The average import profit of Chinese polypropylene samples was - 352.61 yuan/ton, a 44.60% decrease from last week. The production profit was similar to the same period last year [4][82]