铜周报：产业偏弱库存累库，铜价高位震荡-20260126

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: Weak Industry and Inventory Accumulation, Copper Prices Oscillating at High Levels [1] Report Date - January 26, 2026 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - Last week, Shanghai copper oscillated at high levels. Supported by factors such as China's GDP growth, loose monetary policy, increased power grid investment, overseas geopolitical risks, a weakening US dollar, and rising precious metals, copper prices were affected by tight supply at the mine end and weak downstream demand due to high prices, resulting in continuous inventory accumulation. The market is in a game between macro - level positives and weak reality, and copper prices are expected to oscillate at high levels with limited upward potential. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [5][10] Summary by Directory 1. Main View and Strategy 1.1 Market Review - Last week, Shanghai copper oscillated at high levels. As of January 23, it closed at 101,340 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.57%. China's GDP grew by 5% in 2025, and the monetary policy in 2026 remains loose. The "14th Five - Year Plan" power grid investment will increase by 40%. Overseas geopolitical risks are rising rapidly, the US dollar is continuously weakening, and precious metals are strengthening. At the fundamental level, the shortage at the mine end has not been substantially repaired, and the spot processing fee for copper concentrates remains at a historical low. The Mantoverde copper mine in Chile will continue to strike due to failed negotiations. US President Trump does not consider imposing additional tariffs on key minerals including copper for the time being, and the LME - COMEX arbitrage space has narrowed. High copper prices have put pressure on downstream operations in China, domestic inventory has been continuously accumulating, and copper prices have oscillated at high levels [5] 1.2 Supply Side - The shortage at the mine end has not been substantially repaired, and the processing fee has remained at a historical low. As of January 23, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 569,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.86%. As of January 23, the spot rough smelting fee for copper concentrates was - 49.8 US dollars/ton, and the spot TC for copper concentrates continued to decline. In December, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.178 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.54%. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the refined copper (electrolytic copper) production in December was 1.326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%; the annual total production was 14.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%. In December, the supply of scrap - produced anode copper increased, and the sulfuric acid price was strong, so smelters had little willingness to actively reduce production. Affected by smelter maintenance and the statistical cycle in January, the electrolytic copper production is expected to decline month - on - month [8] 1.3 Demand Side - High copper prices have put pressure on downstream operations, but the copper foil industry's operating rate has increased against the trend. As of January 23, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 67.98%. With the decline in copper prices, downstream orders have recovered, and the approaching Spring Festival has led enterprises to accelerate production and stock up, driving the operating rate up. In December, the operating rates of copper strips, copper rods, copper tubes, and copper foils were 68.21%, 52.74%, 68.84%, and 88.2% respectively. High copper prices have seriously weakened the terminal enterprises' ability to accept high - priced raw materials, resulting in a significant shrinkage in order volume and a decline in the operating rate of copper strip enterprises. Most brass rod production enterprises have increased production to meet their annual output value targets, driving the industry's operating rate up. Large enterprises have stable orders and increased production at the end of the year to prepare for the New Year's Day holiday, leading to an increase in the operating rate. The copper foil industry's operating rate has increased for the 8th consecutive month, and the energy storage industry remains highly prosperous. The traditional end - of - year production rush in the downstream has supported the demand at a high level [9] 1.4 Inventory - Domestic copper inventory has been continuously accumulating, and COMEX copper inventory has continued to pile up. As of January 23, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 22.59 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 5.82%. As of January 22, the copper inventory in the mainstream regions of China monitored by SMM increased by 2.9% compared with January 15, and the total inventory increased by 203,000 tons compared with the same period last year. As of January 23, the LME copper inventory was 171,700 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 19.59%. The COMEX copper inventory was 562,600 short tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.63%, and the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [9] 1.5 Strategy Suggestion - At the macro - level, China's GDP grew by 5% in 2025, the monetary policy in 2026 remains loose, and the "14th Five - Year Plan" power grid investment will increase by 40%. Overseas geopolitical risks are rising rapidly, the US dollar is continuously weakening, and precious metals are strengthening. At the fundamental level, the processing fee at the mine end continues to decline, and smelting losses are expanding. US President Trump said that he does not consider imposing additional tariffs on key minerals including copper for the time being, and the LME - COMEX arbitrage space has narrowed. The traditional off - season and high copper prices have suppressed consumption, and downstream enterprises mainly make rigid - demand purchases at low prices. Social inventory has increased to 335,200 tons and continues to accumulate. Spot prices are generally at a discount, and trading is light. The market is in a game between macro - level positives and weak reality. It is expected that copper prices will oscillate at high levels with limited upward potential. It is necessary to be vigilant against the callback risk caused by long - position profit - taking before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [10] 2. Macroeconomic and Industrial Information 2.1 Macroeconomic Data Overview - In 2025, China's GDP increased by 5% year - on - year, and the GDP in the fourth quarter increased by 4.5%. The GDP in 2025 exceeded 140 trillion yuan, achieving the annual growth target. In December 2025, China's industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and high - tech manufacturing showed good growth momentum. In 2025, China's fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, with mining investment increasing by 2.5% and manufacturing investment increasing by 0.6%. China's LPR in January remained unchanged for the eighth consecutive month, with the 5 - year LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3%. The central bank deputy governor said that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in 2026 [15][19][21] 2.2 Industrial Information Overview - In 2025, the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine in Congo achieved its production target. Chile has lowered its copper production forecast for the next few years, and the peak production will be postponed for several years. First Quantum Minerals has lowered its copper production guidance for 2026 and 2027. In December 2025, China's scrap copper imports increased by 14.83% month - on - month. In 2025, China's cumulative refined copper production was 14.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%. The Mantoverde copper mine in Chile has been shut down due to a strike, tightening the global copper supply. Freeport - McMoRan reported its 2025 production and consumption data and its 2026 production forecast. The ICSG and WBMS data show that the global refined copper market had a supply surplus in November 2025. Freeport - McMoRan's Grasberg copper mine restart is progressing as planned [22][24] 3. Spot and Futures Market and Positioning 3.1 Premium and Discount - The spot premium of Shanghai copper has continued to decline, and market trading has remained light. The decline in copper prices during the week has improved trading volume, and demand has recovered slightly. It is expected that the Shanghai copper spot market will maintain a pattern of "high discount, weak trading" next week. The LME copper 0 - 3 has changed from a large premium to a discount. The premium of the copper spot contract over the three - month contract once exceeded 100 US dollars per ton, indicating strong near - term delivery demand and a shortage of deliverable spot inventory. US President Trump's statement has narrowed the LME - COMEX spread [29] 3.2 Domestic and Overseas Positions - As of January 23, the Shanghai copper futures position was 231,437 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 2.44%; the average daily trading volume of Shanghai copper during the week was 210,695.4 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 26.52%. As of January 16, the net long position of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions was 9,618.35 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.54%. As of January 20, the net long position of COMEX copper asset management institutions was 62,806 contracts, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.92% [31] 4. Fundamental Data 4.1 Supply Side - The shortage of copper concentrates continues due to mine - end disturbances, and the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile will continue to strike. As of January 23, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 569,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.86%. As of January 23, the spot rough smelting fee for copper concentrates was - 49.8 US dollars/ton, and the spot TC for copper concentrates continued to decline. In December, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.178 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.54%. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the refined copper (electrolytic copper) production in December was 1.326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%; the annual total production was 14.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%. Affected by smelter maintenance and the statistical cycle in January, the electrolytic copper production is expected to decline month - on - month [40] 4.2 Downstream Operating Rate - As of January 23, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 67.98%, with a month - on - month increase of 10.51 percentage points. In December, the operating rates of copper strips, copper rods, copper tubes, and copper foils were 68.21%, 52.74%, 68.84%, and 88.2% respectively. High copper prices have affected the operating rates of different downstream industries, but the copper foil industry has maintained a high and rising operating rate [44] 4.3 Inventory - As of January 23, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 22.59 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 5.82%. As of January 22, the copper inventory in the mainstream regions of China monitored by SMM increased by 2.9% compared with January 15, and the total inventory increased by 203,000 tons compared with the same period last year. As of January 23, the LME copper inventory was 171,700 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 19.59%. The COMEX copper inventory was 562,600 short tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.63%, and the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [49]