“在几周里发生了几十年的事”：国际地缘政治正在加速变化

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The international geopolitical situation is rapidly changing, with the US - EU relationship facing a significant rift. Europe is promoting "technological sovereignty" and "sovereign cloud" strategies to reduce dependence on US tech giants, which may reshape the trans - Atlantic digital trade pattern [6]. - In the futures market, the "spring rally" in the stock index futures is ongoing, with positive policy expectations, a rising RMB exchange rate, and a strengthened re - inflation expectation. However, the withdrawal of rescue funds has led to a significant divergence in the market, which is expected to converge later [7][8]. - For various commodities, their trends are affected by different factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, and market sentiment. For example, fuel oil prices are influenced by geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand fundamentals; precious metals like gold and silver are showing strong trends; base metals such as copper and zinc are also affected by macro - economic data and industry news [10][15][19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Geopolitical Situation - The US - EU relationship has deeply split due to issues like Greenland. Europe is promoting "technological sovereignty" and "sovereign cloud" strategies to reduce dependence on US tech giants, which account for 83% of the European market [6]. Stock Index Futures - The "spring rally" is in progress, with positive policy expectations, a rising RMB exchange rate, and a strengthened re - inflation expectation. The withdrawal of rescue funds has led to a significant divergence in the market, which is expected to converge later. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and the appointment of the next Fed chairman [7][8]. Commodities - Precious Metals: Gold has reached a new high, and silver is approaching 100. Their trends are affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts and exchange - rate fluctuations [15]. - Base Metals: - Copper: The price is strengthening due to increased disturbances in copper mines. The macro - economic data of the US and the EU, as well as industry news such as strikes and production cuts, have an impact on the copper market [19]. - Zinc: It is running strongly, influenced by factors such as inventory changes and macro - economic data [22]. - Lead: The decrease in LME inventory supports the price [25]. - Tin: It is oscillating strongly, with significant increases in both futures and spot prices [29]. - Aluminum: It is oscillating strongly, while alumina is consolidating at the bottom, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [32]. - Platinum and Palladium: Platinum is rising strongly, and palladium should be vigilant about the supplementary increase momentum [34]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: The situation in Indonesia is uncertain, affecting the nickel and stainless - steel markets. The price of stainless steel is supported by the increase in nickel - iron prices [39]. - Energy and Chemicals: - Carbonate Lithium: It is oscillating at a high level, supported by strong current fundamentals [45]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon is oscillating strongly due to upstream factory production cuts, and attention should be paid to the spot trading situation of polysilicon [50]. - Steel Products: Rebar and hot - rolled coils are oscillating widely due to sector sentiment resonance [53]. - Ferroalloys: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are oscillating widely due to sector sentiment resonance [57]. - Coking Coal and Coke: They are oscillating within a range, affected by industry and capital factors [61][62]. - Power Coal: Supply and demand are both weak, and the price is fluctuating narrowly in the short term [66]. - PX, PTA, and MEG: They have a strong unilateral trend, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, processing fees, and market sentiment [68][74][75][76]. - Rubber: It is oscillating, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and cost support [78]. - Synthetic Rubber: It is running strongly, but attention should be paid to marginal valuation pressure [82]. - LLDPE and PP: Their trends are weak, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost, and market sentiment [85][88]. - Caustic Soda: It is oscillating at a low level, affected by factors such as cost decline and supply - demand collapse [91]. - Paper Pulp: It is oscillating, affected by factors such as downstream demand and inventory pressure [96]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable, and the market demand is coming to an end [103]. - Methanol: It is oscillating with support, affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts and inventory expectations [107]. - Urea: The price center is slowly rising, affected by factors such as market sentiment and supply - demand relationships [112]. - Styrene: It is oscillating strongly, but attention should be paid to the high - inventory situation and the restart of parking devices [115]. - Soda Ash: The spot market has little change, and the price is weakly stable and oscillating [118]. - LPG and Propylene: They are running strongly in the short term, affected by factors such as geopolitical disturbances and supply - demand relationships [123]. - PVC: It is oscillating within a range, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and market sentiment [133]. - Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Fuel oil is rising strongly, and low - sulfur fuel oil continues its upward trend [136]. - Container Shipping Index (European Line): It is in an oscillating market, and short positions in the 04 contract should be gradually reduced for observation, while short positions in the 10 contract can be held as appropriate [138]. - Agricultural Products: - Short Fiber and Bottle Chip: They have a strong short - term trend, affected by factors such as raw material prices and market sentiment [149]. - Offset Printing Paper: It is advisable to wait and see, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and cost - profit situations [152]. - Pure Benzene: It is oscillating strongly, affected by factors such as inventory changes and market sentiment [156]. - Palm Oil and Soybean Oil: Palm oil is oscillating strongly in the short term, and the oil - meal ratio of soybean oil is rising [159]. - Soybean Meal and Soybean: Soybean meal may follow the oscillation of US soybeans, and the spot price of soybeans is stable with a rebound in the futures market [164]. - Corn: It is oscillating strongly, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and price fluctuations [167]. - Sugar: It is consolidating at a low level, affected by factors such as global supply - demand relationships and import policies [171]. - Cotton: It is oscillating strongly, affected by factors such as domestic and international supply - demand relationships and export data [176]. - Eggs: The spot price is strong before the Spring Festival, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and feed prices [181]. - Hogs: After the demand expectation for the Laba Festival is fulfilled, attention should be paid to the supply contradiction [184]. - Peanuts: It is oscillating, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and spot prices [188].