长江期货粕类油脂周报-20260126

Report Overview - The report is the "Yangtze River Futures Meal and Oil Weekly Report" dated January 26, 2026, focusing on the analysis of the meal and oil industries [1]. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Views Soybean Meal - Before the tightening of supply and demand is realized, the price of soybean meal faces upward pressure. The near - month contracts are supported by destocking expectations and cost, but the upward space is limited. The 03 contract is expected to be strong in a narrow range, while the 05 contract may be weak due to the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America and loose domestic supply and demand [8]. Oils - Biodiesel and trade policies disrupt the oil market, leading to a differentiated trend. Rapeseed oil is expected to be weak due to the expected increase in imports after the reduction of Canadian rapeseed tariffs, while soybean and palm oils have upward momentum but are limited by factors such as the abandonment of the B50 biodiesel plan in Indonesia and the unchanged expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans [76][77]. Summary by Directory Soybean Meal 1. Market Review - As of January 23, the spot price in East China was 3070 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The M2605 contract closed at 2751 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton. The basis price was 05 + 320 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. US soybeans were oscillating strongly, and domestic soybean meal followed a low - level rebound. However, the good import crushing profit and loose supply and demand limited the upward space [8][10]. 2. Supply - The weather in South America is favorable, with a high soybean excellent rate and a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. From January to March in China, the arrival of soybeans will decrease, and the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal will gradually decline. However, from April to July, the arrival of soybeans will remain high, and the supply pressure will be large. The purchase progress of ships after March is slow, and the arrival from July to September may decrease slightly year - on - year [8]. 3. Demand - The current demand for soybean meal remains high. The high inventory of pigs and poultry, combined with the good cost - performance of soybean meal, supports the demand. In the third week of 2026, the soybean inventory of national oil mills decreased to 687.33 million tons, a decrease of 3.62% from the previous week, and the soybean meal inventory continued to decline to 94.72 million tons, the lowest level in five months [8]. 4. Cost - The cost of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 950 cents/bushel. The calculated cost of domestic soybean meal from May to August is 2580 yuan/ton, and from July to September is 2760 yuan/ton. The cost of US soybeans in the second half of the 2025/26 season is estimated to be 3000 yuan/ton. The Brazilian soybean crushing profit has risen to around 100 yuan/ton [8]. Oils 1. Market Review - As of the week of January 23, the palm oil 05 contract rose 236 yuan/ton to 8910 yuan/ton, the soybean oil 05 contract rose 78 yuan/ton to 8094 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil 05 contract fell 72 yuan/ton to 8991 yuan/ton. The prices of spot palm, soybean, and rapeseed oils also changed accordingly, and the basis prices of the three oils all declined [77][78]. 2. Palm Oil - High - frequency data shows that from January 1 - 20, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 16.06% month - on - month, while exports increased by 8.64 - 11.4%. The market expects a turning point in Malaysian inventory in January. In China, the inventory continued to increase slightly to 74.61 million tons as of January 16 due to increased purchases before the Indonesian tax increase and weak winter demand [77]. 3. Soybean Oil - US soybeans have rebounded recently due to strong export and crushing demand. The market expects the US biodiesel quota to increase in 2026. Although the overall harvest forecast of South American soybeans in the 2025/26 season remains unchanged, the tight supply of soybeans from January to March in China may lead to a decrease in the operating rate of oil mills and support inventory destocking. As of January 16, the domestic soybean oil inventory decreased to 96.33 million tons [77]. 4. Rapeseed Oil - After the China - Canada negotiation, China plans to reduce the import tariff of Canadian rapeseed to 15% before March, which is expected to increase imports. However, the current domestic supply of rapeseed and rapeseed oil is tight, and the inventory is at a low level. As of January 16, the domestic rapeseed oil inventory remained at 27.6 million tons [77].