玻璃：下游临近放假缺少向上动力

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy is to wait and see in the short term [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The glass market lacks upward momentum before the Chinese New Year. The shipment speed of manufacturers has slowed down, and the middle and lower reaches have limited ability to digest high - level inventories. The market expects the production and sales to continue to weaken, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 1050 - 1070 yuan/ton. There is an opportunity to go long on glass and short on soda ash [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Investment Strategy - The main logic is that last week, the glass futures first fell and then rose, with a mid -阴线 on the weekly line. The supply remained unchanged, the market speculative demand weakened, and the overall inventory of the middle - stream was at a high level. The demand in the north was weak, and some processing plants will gradually have holidays. The production and sales may decline again before the Chinese New Year. The cost center of soda ash is expected to move down, and there is an opportunity to go long on glass and short on soda ash. The technical side shows that the bulls are slightly dominant, and the price is in a shock - adjustment stage [3] - The operation strategy is to wait and see in the short term [3][4] 3.2 Market Review - Futures and Spot Prices: As of January 23, the 5mm float glass market price was 1,010 yuan/ton (-10) in North China, 1,060 yuan/ton (0) in Central China, and 1,190 yuan/ton (0) in East China. The glass 05 contract closed at 1,064 yuan/ton last Friday, down 39 yuan from the previous week [10][11] - Alkali - Glass Price Difference: As of January 23, the soda ash futures price was 1,198 yuan/ton, the glass futures price was 1,064 yuan/ton, and the price difference between the two was 134 yuan/ton (+45) [12] - Basis and Contract Spread: Last Friday, the basis of the glass 05 contract was - 4 yuan/ton (+39), and the 05 - 09 spread was - 106 yuan/ton (0) [14] 3.3 Profit - Natural Gas Process: The cost was 1,568 yuan/ton (0), and the gross profit was - 378 yuan/ton (0) [18] - Coal - Gas Process: The cost was 1,166 yuan/ton (-3), and the gross profit was - 156 yuan/ton (-7) [18] - Petroleum Coke Process: The cost was 1,109 yuan/ton (0), and the gross profit was - 49 yuan/ton (0) [18] 3.4 Supply - The daily melting volume of glass last Friday was 149,535 tons/day (0), and there were 212 production lines in operation [20] 3.5 Inventory - As of January 23, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 53.216 million weight - boxes (+203,000). The inventory in North China was 8.453 million weight - boxes (+82,000); in Central China, it was 5.935 million weight - boxes (+55,000); in East China, it was 11.098 million weight - boxes (-90,000); in South China, it was 6.498 million weight - boxes (-90,000); in Southwest China, it was 10.97 million weight - boxes (0); the inventory in Shahe factory was 1.48 million weight - boxes (-120,000); and the inventory in Hubei factory was 3.94 million weight - boxes (+80,000) [24] 3.6 Deep - Processing - The comprehensive production and sales rate of float glass on January 22 was 105% (+2%) [28] - On January 23, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 43.6% (-0.5%) [28] - In mid - January, the order days of glass deep - processing were 9.3 days (+0.7) [29] 3.7 Demand - Automobile: In December, China's automobile production was 3.296 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 236,000 vehicles and a year - on - year decrease of 70,000 vehicles. The sales volume was 3.272 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 157,000 vehicles and a year - on - year decrease of 217,000 vehicles. The retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles was 1.337 million vehicles, with a penetration rate of 59.1% [35] - Real Estate: In December, China's real estate completion area was 208.94 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18%; the new construction area was 53.13 million square meters (-19%); the construction area was 38.24 million square meters (-47%); and the commercial housing sales area was 94 million square meters (-17%). From January 12 to January 18, the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.38 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 4% and a year - on - year decrease of 35%. The real estate development investment in December was 419.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 37% [42] 3.8 Cost - Side - Soda Ash - Spot Price: As of last weekend, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash was 1,260 yuan/ton (0) in North China, 1,235 yuan/ton (0) in East China, 1,240 yuan/ton (-10) in Central China, and 1,425 yuan/ton (0) in South China [44] - Futures Price: Last Friday, the soda ash 2605 contract closed at 1,198 yuan/ton (+6) [48][49] - Basis: Last Friday, the basis of the soda ash Central China 05 contract was 42 yuan/ton (-16) [48] - Profit: As of last Friday, the soda ash profit was - 40 yuan/ton (+4) [50] - Cost: The cost of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash enterprises was 1,299 yuan/ton (-31), and the gross profit was - 96 yuan/ton (0); the cost of the co - production process was 1,698 yuan/ton (-36) [52] - Inventory: Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 771,700 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 3,600 tons), including 412,900 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 900 tons) and 358,800 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 2,700 tons). The loss was 121,200 tons (a month - on - month increase of 3,600 tons). The number of exchange soda ash warehouse receipts at the end of last week was 0 (a month - on - month decrease of 3,221). As of January 23, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.5212 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 53,800 tons), including 696,700 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 41,300 tons) and 824,500 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 12,500 tons) [59][62] - Apparent Consumption and Production - Sales Rate: Last week, the apparent consumption of heavy soda ash was 454,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 42,200 tons; the apparent consumption of light soda ash was 371,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,300 tons. The production - sales rate of soda ash last week was 106.98%, a week - on - week increase of 7.28%. The soda ash inventory of sample float glass factories in December was 27.2 days [65]