流动性周报20260125：债市修复到位了吗？-20260126

Group 1: Report General Information - The report is a fixed - income report released on January 26, 2026 [1] - The analyst is Liang Weichao with SAC registration number S1340523070001 [2] Group 2: Core Views - The high point of bond yields has appeared, and the repair is continuing. The timing of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts is crucial for the bond market's repair progress during the subsequent stock market's spring rally [3] - The probability of monetary easing is higher in the first half of the year. The time window for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may be around the Two Sessions in March, before which the yield curve will price in the expectations [3][13] - From the perspective of funds, overnight rates are around the policy rate, and there is no significant fluctuation before the Spring Festival. The short - term central rate may decline before the Spring Festival when cross - festival funds are not tight [3][13] - The high point of long - term yields has appeared, and the central downward space is smaller than that of short - term yields. The 10 - year and 30 - year yields have allocation value, but the 30 - year yield has higher volatility and greater trading difficulty [4][18] - From the "stock - bond relationship" perspective, the yield repair is almost in place. If interest rate cuts occur in spring, there may be a stage of simultaneous rise in stocks and bonds, and yields may decline slightly; otherwise, the bond market repair is almost complete [4][20] Group 3: Market Conditions and Trends Configuration and Trading Sentiment - The return of the allocation disk and the repair of the trading disk have warmed the bond market sentiment. Large - scale banks have increased their allocation demand and bought 7 - 10 - year treasury bonds in the secondary market, and the credit spread of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds has declined, indicating the repair of the product household's liability side [10] Impact of Reserve Requirement Ratio Cuts and Interest Rate Cuts - The central bank has implemented interest rate cuts for structural monetary policy tools, indicating that short - term policy rate cuts are unlikely in the short term, but there is room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts throughout the year, and the bond yield curve may shift downward as a whole or show a slight bullish steepening [12] Fund Situation - Overnight funds are around the policy rate, and the 7 - day fund price remains stable. The central bank's liquidity injection is expected to smooth out the seasonal fluctuations before the Spring Festival, and the current state of funds is still relatively stable and loose [13] Short - term Yield - The 1 - year treasury bond yield has declined and is below 1.3%. Short - term varieties such as inter - bank certificates of deposit are also following the downward trend. However, if the R007 remains above 1.5% before the Spring Festival, the downward space for NCD rates is limited [15][16] Long - term Yield - The high point of long - term yields has appeared, and the central downward space is smaller than that of short - term yields. The 10 - year yield has limited short - term downward odds but has allocation value, while the 30 - year yield also has allocation value but high trading difficulty [4][18] Stock - Bond Relationship - The 2026 stock market's spring rally is likely to be characterized by "mid - stage acceleration, easing expectations, and growth - led", which will have a short - term impact on the bond market rather than a trend - based negative impact. Currently, the 10 - year treasury bond has recovered its decline since the beginning of the year, and the 30 - year treasury bond is still 3 BP away from full recovery [4][20]