长江期货贵金属周报：避险情绪升温，价格偏强震荡-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the escalating Greenland issue, geopolitical tensions have risen, leading to an increase in market risk - aversion sentiment. Precious metal prices have continued to be strong. The Fed held its December meeting, cutting interest rates by 25 basis points as expected and initiating a reserve - management balance - sheet expansion. The US employment situation has slowed down, and Fed Chairman Powell said that changing economic risks give the Fed more reasons to cut interest rates. The expectation of Hassett becoming the Fed Chairman has changed, and the market expects fewer interest - rate cuts this year. The US economic data has shown a downward trend, and there are concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence. Central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization trends remain unchanged. Driven by industrial demand, the silver spot market remains tight, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver have shifted upward. Platinum and palladium lease rates remain high, and their prices are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the Fed's January interest - rate decision to be announced on Thursday [11]. - It is expected that precious metal prices will continue to be strong. It is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about opening new positions [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Due to the escalating Greenland issue, geopolitical tensions have risen, and risk - aversion sentiment has increased. Gold prices have shown a strong upward - trending fluctuation. As of last Friday, the price of US gold closed at $4,983 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 8.3%. The upper resistance level is $5,100, and the lower support level is $4,900 [6]. - Due to the escalating Greenland issue, geopolitical tensions have risen, risk - aversion sentiment has increased, and the silver spot market has remained in short supply. Silver prices have risen strongly. As of last Friday, the weekly increase was 14.8%, and the price closed at $103.3 per ounce. The lower support level is $98, and the upper resistance level is $107 [9]. 3.2 Weekly Viewpoint - The Greenland issue continues to escalate, geopolitical tensions rise, market risk - aversion sentiment increases, and precious metal prices remain strong. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and initiated a balance - sheet expansion. The US employment situation has slowed down, and there are concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence. Central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization trends remain unchanged. Driven by industrial demand, the silver spot market remains tight, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver have shifted upward. Platinum and palladium lease rates remain high, and their prices are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the Fed's January interest - rate decision [11]. - Gold: COMEX inventory increased by 260.61 kg to 1,124,213.61 kg this week, and SHFE inventory increased by 1,956 kg to 102,009 kg. Silver: COMEX inventory decreased by 395,996.63 kg to 12,952,270.73 kg, and SHFE inventory decreased by 45,753 kg to 581,090 kg. This week, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 223,928 lots, a decrease of 6,535 lots from last week. The net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 24,615 lots, a decrease of 6,010 lots from last week. It is expected that prices will continue to be strong, and it is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about opening new positions [13]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents multiple charts related to overseas macroeconomic indicators, including the US dollar index, euro - US dollar exchange rate, pound - US dollar exchange rate, real interest rate (10 - year TIPS yield), US Treasury bond yield spread (10Y - 2Y), gold - silver ratio, Fed balance - sheet scale and its weekly change, and WTI crude oil futures price trend [15][17][20]. 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week - The annual rate of the US November PCE price index was 2.8%, with an expected value of 2.7% and a previous value of 2.8%. - The preliminary value of the US January SPGI manufacturing PMI was 51.9, with an expected value of 52 and a previous value of 51.8 [27]. 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - US President Trump said he had reached an agreement with NATO to ensure full and permanent access to Greenland. NATO leaders said allies must strengthen their commitment to Arctic security to counter threats from Russia and China. However, details of the agreement are unclear. Denmark insists on its sovereignty over Greenland, and the EU's foreign - policy chief said US - EU relations have been "severely damaged" in the past week. The Danish Prime Minister said no negotiations on Greenland's sovereignty have been held with NATO. - US consumer spending increased by 0.5% month - on - month in November, in line with expectations. The annualized quarterly growth rate of the US economy in the third quarter was revised up to 4.4%, the fastest in two years. The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending January 17 increased slightly by 1,000 to 200,000 after seasonal adjustment, lower than the expected 210,000 [28]. 3.6 Inventory - Gold: COMEX inventory increased by 260.61 kg to 1,124,213.61 kg, and SHFE inventory increased by 1,956 kg to 102,009 kg. - Silver: COMEX inventory decreased by 395,996.63 kg to 12,952,270.73 kg, and SHFE inventory decreased by 45,753 kg to 581,090 kg [13][31]. 3.7 Fund Holdings - As of January 20, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 223,928 lots, a decrease of 6,535 lots from last week. The net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 24,615 lots, a decrease of 6,010 lots from last week [13][35]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Thursday (January 29) at 21:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending January 24 will be released. - On Friday (January 30) at 21:30, the US December PPI annual rate will be released [37].