Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The pig market is in a state of supply - demand game, with the futures price oscillating. In the short - term, the price is affected by factors such as the rhythm of farmers' sales and consumer demand. In the long - term, the supply in the first quarter is large, and the price after the Spring Festival is under pressure. The price in the second half of the year is expected to be affected by capacity reduction, but the process may be slow [4][53]. - The egg market has supply pressure, and the rebound of the futures price is restricted. Although the egg price has increased recently due to pre - holiday stocking, the overall supply is still sufficient, and the medium - and long - term supply pressure will gradually ease but still exists [5][78]. - The corn market is in short - term supply - demand balance, with the futures price oscillating at a high level. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern in the 25/26 season is relatively loose, which will put pressure on the price increase [6][107]. Summary by Directory 01 Feed and Livestock Farming Viewpoints Summary Pig - Spot and Futures: As of January 23, the national spot price was 12.87 yuan/kg, up 0.18 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 13.14 yuan/kg, up 0.06 yuan/kg; the futures price of contract 2503 was 11,565 yuan/ton, down 415 yuan/ton; the basis of contract 03 was 1,575 yuan/ton, up 475 yuan/ton. The weekly pig price first rose and then fell, with a slight increase. The futures price of the main contract 03 first declined and then rose, with a weak oscillation, and the basis strengthened [4][53]. - Supply: The inventory of breeding sows decreased slightly in September and the capacity reduction accelerated in October. However, due to previous profits and improved self - breeding and self - raising profits in December, the capacity reduction slowed down. The supply will remain high before the first half of the year, and the supply pressure in the first quarter is still large. The planned pig slaughter of large - scale enterprises in January decreased month - on - month. The average slaughter weight of pigs increased slightly, and the proportion of large - pig slaughter decreased [4][53]. - Demand: The weekly slaughter rate and volume first increased and then decreased. The terminal demand was less than expected, and the slaughter volume declined. The fresh - sales rate decreased, and the frozen - product inventory rate continued to decrease. The current seasonal consumption is relatively strong, but the time for a rapid increase in consumption has not yet arrived, and the slaughter volume is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [4][53]. - Cost: The price of piglets increased, and the price of binary breeding sows was stable. The self - breeding and self - raising profit increased, and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding turned positive. The cost of self - breeding and self - raising fattening pigs for 5 months was stable [4][53]. - Weekly Summary: Consumption has increased since Laba, but the rapid increase usually occurs 7 days before the Lunar New Year. Although the planned slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises in January has decreased, the supply may be advanced. The supply - demand relationship will gradually loosen, and the pig price is under pressure, but the bullish sentiment before the Spring Festival and the expected increase in consumption will limit the decline. In the long - term, the supply in the first quarter will increase, and the price after the Spring Festival is under pressure. The price in the second half of the year is expected to be affected by capacity reduction, but the process may be slow [4][53]. - Strategy: In the short - term, for off - season contracts, take profit on short positions and wait for a rebound to go short. For far - month contracts, be cautious about bullishness and hedge at high profits before the capacity is effectively reduced [4][53]. Egg - Spot and Futures: As of January 23, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 3.83 yuan/jin, up 0.23 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main egg - selling areas was 3.83 yuan/jin, up 0.24 yuan/jin. The futures price of the main contract 2603 was 3,046 yuan/500 kg, down 26 yuan/500 kg; the basis of the main contract was 514 yuan/500 kg, up 256 yuan/500 kg. The weekly egg price first remained stable and then increased. The approaching Spring Festival led to increased stocking demand, which supported the price increase. The main contract 03 fluctuated, and the basis was at a relatively low level in the same period of history [5][78]. - Supply: The newly - hatched laying hens in January correspond to the replenishment in August 2025, with both month - on - month and year - on - year declines. The inventory of laying hens has been slowly declining, but the inventory base is still large. The recent strong egg price has improved the breeding profit, and the enthusiasm for culling has declined. In the long - term, the replenishment volume from September to December 2025 decreased significantly year - on - year, corresponding to a decrease in the number of newly - hatched laying hens from February to May 2026. The current good Spring Festival spot performance and the low proportion of hens over 500 days old will weaken the culling enthusiasm around the Spring Festival. The market will experience a repeated bottom - grinding process, and the supply pressure will take time to ease [5][78]. - Demand: As the Spring Festival approaches, the domestic demand in various places has been launched, and the substitution demand for eggs is good due to the long - term pressure on pork prices and the seasonal increase in vegetable prices. The egg delivery volume and sales volume in the sample sales areas increased, and the inventory in the production and circulation links decreased [5][78]. - Weekly Summary: The increase in egg price is driven by pre - holiday stocking, but attention should be paid to the domestic demand and channel inventory. The overall supply is sufficient, and the short - term callback risk has increased. In the long - term, the supply pressure will still exist, and attention should be paid to culling and external variables [5][78]. - Strategy: The current basis is low, and the overall valuation is high. Wait for the spot price increase to be less than expected and hedge post - festival contracts at high prices. Consider the high probability of molting and extending the laying period around the Spring Festival, and hedge contracts 05 and 06 at high prices [5][78]. Corn - Spot and Futures: As of January 23, the平仓 price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2,350 yuan/ton, stable compared with last Friday; the futures price of the main contract 2603 was 2,300 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton; the basis of the main contract was 50 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton. The weekly national corn price oscillated at a high level. The downstream replenishment enthusiasm before the Spring Festival was good, and the grain - selling entities shipped steadily at the current price, but were reluctant to sell at low prices, which supported the price. The main contract 03 oscillated at a high level, and the basis was at a relatively high level in the same period of history [6][107]. - Supply: The national grass - roots grain - selling progress was 54%, 3% slower than the same period last year. The grass - roots and grain - holding entities were reluctant to sell, and the market supply was relatively stable. The grain - selling progress in North China was slower than the same period last year, and the short - term supply pressure was not large. The corn import in December was 800,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 43% and a year - on - year increase of 135.3%. The imports of sorghum and barley decreased month - on - month and year - on - year. The inventories in the north and south ports were 1.75 million tons and 697,000 tons respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 190,000 tons and a decrease of 64,000 tons [6][107]. - Demand: The inventory of breeding sows decreased slightly in September 2025, and the capacity reduction accelerated in October. However, the self - breeding and self - raising profit has turned positive, and the capacity is expected to be slowly reduced. The poultry inventory is also slowly declining. The current high inventory supports the rigid feed demand. If the corn price continues to rise, the wheat may replace corn in feed use. The deep - processing profit has turned negative, and the start - up rate is at a relatively low level in the same period of history, and the finished - product inventory is high, which limits the increase in deep - processing demand [6][107]. - Weekly Summary: As the Spring Festival approaches, the purchase and sale in the production areas are becoming more active. The short - term supply - demand is relatively balanced, which supports the price to remain high. In the long - term, the corn planting cost in the 25/26 season has decreased, and the weather during the growing period is suitable, so a good harvest is expected. However, the carry - over inventory of the old crop is low, and the import is expected to increase year - on - year but is still at a low level, which strengthens the cost support. The overall demand for new - season corn is stable and weak, which limits the upward space of the price [6][107]. - Strategy: In the short - term, be cautious about chasing high prices in the spot market, and grain - holding entities can hedge at high prices when the price rebounds. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern of corn in the 25/26 season is relatively loose, which limits the price increase [6][107]. 02 Variety Industry Data Analysis Pig - Weekly Market Review: As of January 23, the national spot price was 12.87 yuan/kg, up 0.18 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 13.14 yuan/kg, up 0.06 yuan/kg; the futures price of contract 2503 was 11,565 yuan/ton, down 415 yuan/ton; the basis of contract 03 was 1,575 yuan/ton, up 475 yuan/ton [12]. - Key Data Tracking: The inventory of breeding sows decreased in December, but the self - breeding and self - raising profit has turned positive, and the capacity reduction is expected to be slow. The production performance of sows is at a high level in the past four years, and the supply in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to be at a high level [16]. Egg - Weekly Market Review: As of January 23, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 3.83 yuan/jin, up 0.23 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main egg - selling areas was 3.83 yuan/jin, up 0.24 yuan/jin. The futures price of the main contract 2603 was 3,046 yuan/500 kg, down 26 yuan/500 kg; the basis of the main contract was 514 yuan/500 kg, up 256 yuan/500 kg [58]. - Key Data Tracking: The inventory of laying hens is slowly declining, the culling volume has decreased, and the culling age has been extended. The egg delivery volume and sales volume in the sample sales areas have increased, and the inventory in the production and circulation links has decreased [59]. Corn - Weekly Market Review: As of January 23, the平仓 price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2,350 yuan/ton, stable compared with last Friday; the futures price of the main contract 2603 was 2,300 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton; the basis of the main contract was 50 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton [84]. - Key Data Tracking: The national grass - roots grain - selling progress was 54%, 3% slower than the same period last year. The inventories in the north and south ports were 1.75 million tons and 697,000 tons respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 190,000 tons and a decrease of 64,000 tons. The start - up rate of deep - processing enterprises increased, and the corn consumption increased [85].
长江期货养殖产业周报-20260126
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2026-01-26 05:06