美欧摩擦不断，国内经济顺利收官

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, domestic commodities rebounded again, with both industrial and agricultural products rising. The main reasons include geopolitical risks, the acceleration of de - dollarization, the rise of anti - involution expectations, and the cold wave driving up energy prices [3]. - In 2025, China achieved a 5% growth target, but faced downward pressure in the second half of the year. In 2026, domestic economic growth may be driven by economic re - balancing, with domestic demand expected to improve, and policies will continue to support economic growth [3]. - The IMF raised China's economic growth rate forecast for 2025 by 0.2 percentage points to 5% and for 2026 by 0.3 percentage points to 4.5%, and also raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 3.3% [3][23][24]. - Multiple factors are driving the rebound in the commodity market, including the rift between the US and its allies, the pre - emptive fiscal policy, and the geopolitical situation and cold wave [3]. 3. Summary by Directory PART ONE: Main Viewpoints - Domestic Commodity Market: This week, domestic commodities rose. Geopolitical risks and de - dollarization led to the rise of gold and silver, anti - involution expectations drove up new energy metals, and the cold wave pushed up energy prices, causing the energy and chemical sectors to rebound [3]. - Overseas Situation: - US: The December 2024 existing - home sales index dropped significantly, affected by inventory shortages and rising mortgage rates. Trump mentioned potential candidates for the new Fed chair. The US threatened to impose tariffs on eight European countries and then postponed the decision [3]. - Japan: The Prime Minister announced the dissolution of the House of Representatives and an upcoming election, and proposed an expansionary fiscal policy, which triggered market concerns and led to a sell - off of Japanese government bonds [3]. - Domestic Situation: In 2025, China achieved a 5% growth target, but faced downward pressure in the second half. In 2026, economic re - balancing may drive growth, and policies will continue to support the economy. The IMF raised China's economic growth forecast, and the government announced fiscal and financial policies to boost domestic demand [3]. - Commodity Market Viewpoint: Multiple factors are driving the rebound in the commodity market, including the rift between the US and its allies, the pre - emptive fiscal policy, and the geopolitical situation and cold wave [3]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - US Real Estate: The December 2024 existing - home sales index dropped 9.3% month - on - month and 1.3% year - on - year, the largest decline since April 2020 and the largest for December since 2001. Inventory shortages and rising mortgage rates are the main factors [3]. - Fed Chair Candidate: Trump mentioned that the list of candidates for the new Fed chair has been narrowed down, and he hopes the new chair will be like Greenspan [3]. - Japan's Fiscal Policy: The Japanese Prime Minister announced the dissolution of the House of Representatives and an expansionary fiscal policy, which led to a sell - off of Japanese government bonds [3]. - US - Europe Trade: The US threatened to impose tariffs on eight European countries and then postponed the decision, but the implementation of the agreement is still uncertain [3]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - Economic Growth: In 2025, China achieved a 5% growth target, but faced downward pressure in the second half. In 2026, economic re - balancing may drive growth, and domestic demand is expected to improve [3]. - IMF Forecast: The IMF raised China's economic growth rate forecast for 2025 by 0.2 percentage points to 5% and for 2026 by 0.3 percentage points to 4.5%, and also raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 3.3% [3][23][24]. - Fiscal Policy: In 2026, the fiscal deficit, debt, and expenditure will remain at necessary levels, and the government announced fiscal and financial policies to boost domestic demand [3]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - Industrial Data: Data on the start - up rates of the polyester industry chain and blast furnaces are presented, showing the operating conditions of related industries [31][32]. - Agricultural Product Data: Data on the average wholesale prices of fruits, vegetables, and pork, as well as the Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index, are provided [44].