国债周报：债期超长端温和修复-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the Treasury bond futures market showed an oscillating upward trend, with ultra - long - term varieties performing particularly prominently. The main drivers for the bond market's strength this week were allocation demand and foreign capital inflows. The central bank's large - scale liquidity injection and the indication of a moderately loose monetary policy also provided support [4]. - In the short term, the Treasury bond futures market is expected to continue the oscillating pattern, and it is difficult to form a unilateral trend. In the long term, the bond market's trend will depend on the sustainability of economic recovery, the actual strength of fiscal policy, and the future direction of monetary policy [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Main Viewpoints - Market Performance: The Treasury bond futures market showed an oscillating upward trend last week, with ultra - long - term varieties standing out. At the beginning of the week, there was obvious market differentiation, but the 30 - year Treasury bond futures gradually strengthened in the following three trading days, and all contracts closed up on Friday [4]. - Driving Factors: The main reasons for the bond market's strength were the continuous allocation demand for long - term interest - rate bonds from institutions such as banks and insurance companies, and the inflow of overseas hedging funds. The central bank's indication of a moderately loose monetary policy and a large - scale liquidity injection also played a role [4]. - Market Outlook: In the short term, the market is expected to oscillate, with multiple long and short factors at play. In the long term, the bond market's trend will be affected by economic recovery, fiscal policy, and monetary policy [6]. 3.2 Part Two: Liquidity Tracking - The content includes a large number of charts related to liquidity, such as open - market operations (including currency投放, currency回笼, and net投放), medium - term lending facilities (in terms of quantity and price), various interest rates (reverse repurchase rate, deposit - based pledge - style repurchase rate, SHIBOR, etc.), LPR, deposit reserve ratio, Treasury bond yields, and US Treasury bond yields [10][11][13] 3.3 Part Three: Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - The report tracks various arbitrage indicators of Treasury bond futures, including basis, net basis, IRR, and implied interest rate for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures [41][42][44]