长江期货聚烯烃周报-20260126

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - The valuation of polyolefins has been briefly repaired, and it is recommended to wait for opportunities to short at high prices. The PE main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly within a range, with support at 6,600, and the PP main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, with support at 6,500 [8]. - The supply - demand contradiction of plastics still exists, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - The trend pressure of PP is relatively large, and it will fluctuate weakly in the short term [50]. 3. Summary by Directory Plastic Market Review - On January 23, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6,865 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.54%. The average price of LDPE was 9,033.33 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.28%. The average price of HDPE was 7,200 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.52%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 6,987.78 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%. The South China basis of LLDPE was 122.78 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 58.33%. The 5 - 9 month spread was - 22 yuan/ton (+6) [8][11]. Key Data Tracking - Month - spread: The 1 - 5 month spread on January 23, 2026 was 21 yuan/ton, an increase of 196 yuan/ton compared to January 16; the 5 - 9 month spread was - 22 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 month spread was 1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 202 yuan/ton [15]. - Spot Price: The spot prices of various plastic products in different regions showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, in North China, the mainstream price of HDPE film increased by 53 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of low - melt injection molding increased by 50 yuan/ton [17]. - Cost: Last week, WTI crude oil closed at $61.28 per barrel, an increase of $2.06 per barrel compared to the previous week. Brent crude oil closed at $65.39 per barrel, an increase of $1.19 per barrel compared to the previous week. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,070 yuan/ton (unchanged) [20][68]. - Profit: The profit of oil - based PE was - 530 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The profit of coal - based PE was 244 yuan/ton, an increase of 27 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [25]. - Supply: This week, the production start - up rate of polyethylene in China was 84.67%, an increase of 3.08 percentage points compared to the previous week. The weekly output of polyethylene was 698,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.34%. The weekly maintenance loss was 89,500 tons, a decrease of 23,200 tons compared to the previous week [31]. - 2026 Production Plan: Multiple companies have new production capacity plans in 2026, with a total planned production capacity of 5.5 million tons [34]. - Maintenance Statistics: Many enterprises' devices are in the maintenance state, and the restart time of some devices is uncertain [35]. - Demand: This week, the overall start - up rate of domestic agricultural film was 36.32%, a decrease of 0.61% compared to the previous week; the start - up rate of PE packaging film was 44.96%, a decrease of 3.19% compared to the previous week; the start - up rate of PE pipes was 29.00%, a decrease of 0.33% compared to the previous week [37]. - Downstream Production Ratio: Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 34.7%, with a difference of 1.9% from the annual average level. The difference between the linear metallocene and the annual average data is obvious, currently accounting for 5.1%, with a difference of 1.6% from the annual average level [41]. - Inventory: This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 477,400 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons compared to the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.42% [43]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 10,474 lots, a decrease of 153 lots compared to the previous week [47]. Polypropylene (PP) Market Review - On January 23, the closing price of the PP main contract was 6,656 yuan/ton, an increase of 160 yuan/ton compared to the previous weekend, a week - on - week increase of 2.46% [51]. Key Data Tracking - Downstream Spot Price: The prices of PP - related products and other downstream products showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the price of PP granules (T30S) remained unchanged, and the price of PP powder (225) increased by 100 yuan/ton [53][56]. - Basis: On January 23, the spot price of PP reported by Shengyi.com was 6,580 yuan/ton (+0.05%). The PP basis was - 76 yuan/ton (- 157), and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 11 yuan/ton (+250) [58]. - Month - spread: The 1 - 5 month spread on January 23, 2026 was - 11 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton compared to January 16; the 5 - 9 month spread was - 32 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 month spread was 43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 256 yuan/ton [66]. - Cost: The same as the cost data of plastics, last week, WTI crude oil closed at $61.28 per barrel, an increase of $2.06 per barrel compared to the previous week. Brent crude oil closed at $65.39 per barrel, an increase of $1.19 per barrel compared to the previous week. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,070 yuan/ton (unchanged) [68]. - Profit: The profit of oil - based PP was - 465.07 yuan/ton, an increase of 154.20 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The profit of coal - based PP was - 340.73 yuan/ton, an increase of 77.58 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [73]. - Supply: This week, the start - up rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 76.02%, an increase of 0.40 percentage points compared to the previous week. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 784,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.18%. The weekly output of PP powder reached 55,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.65% [79]. - Maintenance Statistics: Many PP production lines of enterprises are in the maintenance state, and the restart time of some devices is uncertain [82]. - Demand: This week, the average start - up rate of PP downstream was 52.87% (0.34%). The start - up rate of plastic weaving was 42.04% (- 0.56%), the start - up rate of BOPP was 64.02% (+0.46%), the start - up rate of injection molding was 60.20% (2.27%), and the start - up rate of pipes was 37.33% (- 0.84%) [84]. - Import and Export Profit: This week, the import profit of polypropylene was - 386.92 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 135.39 US dollars/ton compared to the previous week. The export profit was - 34.09 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4.54 US dollars/ton compared to the previous week [90]. - Inventory: This week, the domestic inventory of polypropylene was 432,900 tons (0.44%); the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina increased by 8.70% month - on - month; the inventory of traders decreased by 6.14% month - on - month; the port inventory decreased by 7.51% month - on - month. The finished product inventory of large - scale plastic - weaving enterprises was 930.76 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.93%, and the raw material inventory of BOPP was 12.50 days, a month - on - month increase of 4.60% [92][95]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 17,250 lots, a decrease of 258 lots compared to the previous week [99].