Nan Hua Qi Huo·2026-01-26 05:10Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Global Fixed - Income Market: A new logic has emerged where bonds have shifted from traditional safe - havens to risk sources. Fiscal sustainability has become the core anchor for bond pricing, and the new logic is driven by the combination of fiscal, monetary, and inflationary pressures. It is also globally contagious, affecting both developed and emerging markets. The fiscal health of economies and policy games are key considerations for fixed - income investment [2]. - Renminbi Exchange Rate: The RMB has a solid foundation for appreciation, supported by domestic export and settlement data. However, the appreciation process will be regulated by the central bank and may be affected by the strength of the US dollar index. Short - term export enterprises are advised to lock in forward settlements, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy [6][7]. - Equity Index: The medium - to long - term upward trend of the equity index is supported by policy and liquidity, but the small - and medium - cap indices may experience short - term technical adjustments due to overheating [7]. - Container Shipping to Europe: The market is in a game between the weak current reality and the uncertain future. There are both positive factors such as the delay of full - scale resumption of navigation and local improvements in macro data, and negative factors like the sharp decline in spot freight rates and trade protectionism. The future price trend depends on the realization of resumption of navigation [11]. - Commodities - Carbonate Lithium: Before the Spring Festival, it is recommended to reduce positions. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling volatility [16]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: In the short term, the price of industrial silicon is likely to rise, but the upward elasticity is restricted by the polysilicon inventory. Long - term investors can consider a long - position strategy at low prices [18][19]. - Copper: The price is in a narrow - range shock. It is not recommended to build new positions above 100,000 yuan, and long - positions built in the range of 90,000 - 95,000 yuan can be held [24]. - Aluminum and Its Products: Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term and bullish in the long term; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be slightly stronger [25][26][27]. - Zinc: The price may be volatile and slightly stronger, but it is also affected by macro and geopolitical factors [27]. - Nickel - Stainless Steel: The supply side is facing disturbances, and the market is in a state of long - short competition. Attention should be paid to supply - side news and inventory changes [29]. - Tin: The price may be in a high - level wide - range shock due to geopolitical factors [31]. - Lead: The price is expected to be in a narrow - range shock, and selling options to collect premiums is recommended [32]. - Oilseeds and Oils: External soybean futures are weakly oscillating, and domestic soybean meal is expected to stop falling in the short term. Rapeseed meal may return to international pricing. Oils are expected to remain strong, with palm oil being the strongest [33][35][36]. - Fuel Oil: The high - sulfur fuel oil market has a poor fundamental situation, but the Iranian issue provides support at the bottom [39]. - Asphalt: The short - term price is expected to be in a shock state. The 02 and 03 contracts' premium opportunities may be stable trading opportunities [41]. - Platinum and Palladium: In the medium - to long - term, the bull market foundation remains. The price is expected to be in a high - level wide - range shock, and attention should be paid to position control [47][48]. - Gold and Silver: The prices have reached new highs, driven by geopolitical risks, policy uncertainties, and the weakening of the US dollar. They are in an upward - prone state, and short - term corrections can be considered as opportunities to build long - positions [48][49]. - Paper Pulp and Offset Paper: It is recommended to wait and see for both paper pulp and offset paper futures [53]. - LPG: The short - term price is supported by external cold snaps and geopolitical factors, but the demand side is weakening [54]. - PTA - PX: The prices are strongly rising due to concentrated long - positions. However, the high - valuation situation is not suitable for chasing long - positions. It is recommended to wait for corrections to build long - positions [58]. - MEG - Bottle Chips: The price of ethylene glycol has bottomed out and is expected to fluctuate widely with the macro - environment. It is not suitable to be used as a short - position target in the short term [60]. - Methanol: The price has rebounded, mainly due to geopolitical risks and the improvement of the energy - chemical sector's sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and consider 3 - 5 reverse spreads and expanding MTO profits [62]. - PP and PE: Both are affected by market sentiment and sector rotation. Their fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [64][67]. - Pure Benzene - Styrene: Both are running strongly. It is recommended to wait and see and look for opportunities to buy on dips for styrene [68]. - Urea: It is recommended to hold long - positions for the 05 contract, but the price may correct in the short term [70]. - Glass and Soda Ash: The price elasticity of soda ash is limited, and glass is in a state of weak supply and demand, with no obvious trend [72][73]. - Propylene: The price is affected by cost and supply - demand factors. Attention should be paid to geopolitical and device - related changes [75]. - Black Commodities - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The prices are in a range - bound shock, with the rebar 2605 contract in the range of 3050 - 3200 yuan and the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract in the range of 3200 - 3350 yuan [76][77]. - Iron Ore: The price has limited downward space. Although the supply is abundant, the demand has certain resilience, and the steel mill's restocking demand is strong [78][80]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The demand for coking coal and coke may be insufficient in the short term. The coking coal spot price may face downward pressure, and attention should be paid to post - holiday mine resumption and macro - sentiment changes [83]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon: They are in a range - bound shock, with silicon ferrosilicon in the range of 5400 - 5900 yuan and silicon manganese in the range of 5700 - 6100 yuan [84][85]. - Agricultural and Soft Commodities - Live Pigs: The main 03 contract may rise in an oscillating manner [88]. - Cotton: The domestic cotton price has an upward drive in the medium - to long - term, but the short - term upward space is restricted by the internal - external price difference. It is recommended to build long - positions on dips [90][91]. - Sugar: The domestic sugar price has limited probability of further increase due to the decline of raw sugar and weak demand [93]. - Eggs: The main contract may weaken in an oscillating manner [95]. - Apples: The futures price may continue to rise if the demand continues to improve and inventory is removed more than expected [96]. - Red Dates: The short - term price may be in a low - level shock, and the long - term price is under pressure due to sufficient supply [97]. - Logs: The price is in a range of 750 - 795, and a double - selling strategy of put at 750 and call at 800 can be considered [101]. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries Macroeconomic and Financial Futures - Macro: The probability of Rick Rieder of BlackRock being elected as the Fed Chairman has soared. His policy stance may lead to a further cut in policy rates. Japan's Prime Minister will take measures against abnormal market fluctuations, and the US is affected by a winter storm [1]. - Renminbi Exchange Rate: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed higher in the previous trading day. The RMB is supported by domestic data for appreciation, but the process will be regulated by the central bank [3][6]. - Equity Index: The previous trading day's index showed a differentiated trend, with large - cap indices weak and small - and medium - cap indices rising. The market may have short - term corrections due to overheating [7]. - Treasury Bonds: The bond market rebounded last week, but the short - term may continue to oscillate. Medium - term long - positions can be held, and short - term investors can wait and see [8][9]. Container Shipping to Europe - Market Review: The futures contracts showed a differentiated trend, with the near - term contracts relatively stable and the far - term contracts showing different trends. The主力合约 EC2604 slightly declined, and the次主力合约 EC2606 rose [10]. - Information Summary: There are positive factors such as the delay of full - scale resumption of navigation and local improvements in macro data, and negative factors like the sharp decline in spot freight rates, the weakening of freight rate indices, and trade protectionism [11]. - Trading Judgment: The 02 and 04 contracts' prices decreased year - on - year. If the resumption of navigation cannot be realized, the 06 contract may have some upward space [12][13]. Commodities - New Energy - Carbonate Lithium: The price rose last week, and the market is active. It is recommended to reduce positions before the Spring Festival and pay attention to selling volatility [15][16]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: The prices of both showed certain changes last week. In the short term, the price of industrial silicon is likely to rise, but the polysilicon inventory restricts its upward elasticity [17][19]. - Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The price was in a narrow - range shock last week. The LC spread narrowed, and LME copper warehouse receipts in US warehouses flowed in. It is not recommended to build new positions above 100,000 yuan [21][24]. - Aluminum and Its Products: The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy showed different trends. Aluminum is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term and bullish in the long term; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be slightly stronger [25][26][27]. - Zinc: The price was oscillating strongly. The supply is expected to be relatively loose, and the demand is weak. It may oscillate strongly following the sector [27]. - Nickel - Stainless Steel: The prices of nickel and stainless steel showed different trends. The supply side is facing disturbances, and the market is in a state of long - short competition [28][29]. - Tin: The price was oscillating strongly and reached a new high at night. It is affected by geopolitical factors [30][31]. - Lead: The price was oscillating weakly. The supply and demand are both weak, and it is recommended to sell options to collect premiums [32]. - Oilseeds and Oils - Oilseeds: External soybean futures are weakly oscillating, and domestic soybean meal is expected to stop falling in the short term. Rapeseed meal may return to international pricing [33][35]. - Oils: Oils are expected to remain strong, with palm oil being the strongest. The market is affected by geopolitical factors and bio - fuel policies [36][37]. - Energy and Oil and Gas - Fuel Oil: The high - sulfur fuel oil market has a poor fundamental situation, but the Iranian issue provides support at the bottom [39]. - Asphalt: The short - term price is expected to be in a shock state. The 02 and 03 contracts' premium opportunities may be stable trading opportunities [41]. - Precious Metals - Platinum and Palladium: The prices rose last week. In the medium - to long - term, the bull market foundation remains. The price is expected to be in a high - level wide - range shock [44][48]. - Gold and Silver: The prices reached new highs, driven by geopolitical risks, policy uncertainties, and the weakening of the US dollar. They are in an upward - prone state [48][49]. - Chemicals - Paper Pulp and Offset Paper: The paper pulp futures price is affected by the spot market and may have limited upward space. The offset paper futures price is affected by cost and supply - side factors. It is recommended to wait and see for both [51][53]. - LPG: The short - term price is supported by external cold snaps and geopolitical factors, but the demand side is weakening [54]. - PTA - PX: The prices are strongly rising due to concentrated long - positions. However, the high - valuation situation is not suitable for chasing long - positions. It is recommended to wait for corrections to build long - positions [55][58]. - MEG - Bottle Chips: The price of ethylene glycol has bottomed out and is expected to fluctuate widely with the macro - environment. It is not suitable to be used as a short - position target in the short term [59][60]. - Methanol: The price has rebounded, mainly due to geopolitical risks and the improvement of the energy - chemical sector's sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and consider 3 - 5 reverse spreads and expanding MTO profits [61][62]. - PP and PE: Both are affected by market sentiment and sector rotation. Their fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [63][67]. - Pure Benzene - Styrene: Both are running strongly. It is recommended to wait and see and look for opportunities to buy on dips for styrene [68]. - Urea: The price of the 05 contract may continue to rise, but there may be short - term corrections. It is recommended to hold long - positions [69][70]. - Glass and Soda Ash: The soda ash market has an over - supply expectation, and the glass market is in a state of weak supply and demand. Both have limited price elasticity [71][73]. - Propylene: The price is affected by cost and supply - demand factors. Attention should be paid to geopolitical and device - related changes [74][75]. - Black Commodities - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The prices are in a range - bound shock. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand will weaken seasonally [76][77]. - Iron Ore: The price has limited downward space. Although the supply is abundant, the demand has certain resilience, and the steel mill's restocking demand is strong [78][80]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The demand for coking coal and coke may be insufficient in the short term. The coking coal spot price may face downward pressure, and attention should be paid to post - holiday mine resumption and macro - sentiment changes [81][83]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon: They are in a range - bound shock, with silicon ferrosilicon in the range of 5400 - 5900 yuan and silicon manganese in the range of 5700 - 6100 yuan [84][85]. - Agricultural and Soft Commodities - Live Pigs: The spot price has stabilized. The main 03 contract may rise in an oscillating manner [87][88]. - Cotton: The domestic cotton price has an upward drive in the medium - to long - term, but the short - term upward space is restricted by the internal - external price difference. It is recommended to build long - positions on dips [89][91]. - Sugar: The domestic sugar price has limited probability of further increase due to the decline of raw sugar and weak demand [92][93]. - Eggs: The main contract may weaken in an oscillating manner due to the weakening of pre - holiday demand [94][95]. - Apples: The futures price may continue to rise if the demand continues to improve and inventory is removed more than expected [95][96]. - Red Dates: The short - term price may be in a low - level shock, and the long - term price is under pressure due to sufficient supply [97]. - Logs: The price is in a range of 750 - 795, and a double - selling strategy of put at 750 and call at 800 can be considered [98][101].