集运指数欧线周报（EC）：以哈和谈进入第二阶段，抢运预期情绪退却-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the container shipping industry is "震荡" (sideways movement), indicating that the market is expected to have an amplitude of -5% to 5% in the short, medium, and long - term [3][85]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The talks between Israel and Hamas have entered the second stage, and the sentiment of rush - shipping expectations has subsided. The EC (Container Shipping Index for European Routes) shows a pattern of near - term strength and far - term weakness, with the progress of the Red Sea route's resumption being the core trading variable [3]. - In the short term (first quarter), the rush of exports of products like photovoltaic items supports the cargo volume. Coupled with the fact that 9% - 10% of effective shipping capacity is locked due to Red Sea detours, the near - month contracts are supported by the spot index. In the long - term (2026), the delivery of new ships will lead to a higher growth rate of shipping capacity supply than demand. If the Suez Canal resumes normal operation, a large amount of hidden shipping capacity will be released, continuously suppressing the freight rate center [3]. - The price of spot freight for European routes is showing a pre - holiday decline. The shipping companies' actions to support prices have obvious differences. Investors need to closely monitor the official signals of route resumption, China's export data, and the rhythm of shipping capacity deployment, and be vigilant about the downward risk of far - month contracts [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Spot Freight Rate: It is a negative factor. The 40 - foot container freight rates for European routes vary among different alliances. In the future one or two weeks (from late January to early February), the rates are expected to decline as the cargo volume enters the pre - Spring Festival vacuum period. For example, Maersk's Week 6 opening price will drop to $2000 - 2100 [3]. - Political and Economic Factors: They are neutral. The shipping schedules of CMA CGM on European routes show some arrangements for passing through or bypassing the Suez Canal. There are also some political events such as the suspension of additional tariffs on eight European countries and the upcoming "Peace Committee Charter Signing Ceremony" [3]. - Shipping Capacity Supply: It is neutral. The weekly average shipping capacity has been increasing from November 2025 to January 2026. In January 2026, the weekly average shipping capacity is concentrated in the range of 313,000 - 321,000 TEU, and the shipping schedules are more evenly distributed [3]. - Demand: It is a negative factor. Currently, the cargo volume on European container shipping routes is stable, but the freight rate is continuously loosening. In the next half - month (until early February), approaching the Spring Festival, there is no traditional pre - holiday peak season. With sufficient shipping capacity supply, the freight rate is expected to continue to decline [3]. - Investment View and Trading Strategy: The investment view is "sideways movement". The trading strategy for both single - side and arbitrage is to wait and see. The risks to focus on are geopolitical disturbances and domestic and overseas macro - policy disturbances [3]. 3.2 Price - There are charts showing the trends of various container shipping route indices, including the European route index, the US West route index, and the US East route index [6]. 3.3 Static Shipping Capacity - Order Volume: There are data and charts showing the order volume of container ships in different loading capacities from 2015 to 2025 [11]. - Delivery Volume: There are data and charts presenting the delivery volume of container ships in different loading capacities from 2020 to 2025 [14]. - Demolition Volume: There are data and charts showing the demolition volume of container ships in different loading capacities from 2020 to 2025 [15]. - Future Delivery: There are predictions and charts about the future delivery volume of container ships in different loading capacities from 2023 to 2029 [20]. - Ship Prices: There are data and charts on the scrap prices, new - building prices, and second - hand prices of container ships in different loading capacities and time periods [27][29][33]. - Existing Shipping Capacity: There are data and charts showing the existing shipping capacity of container ships in terms of TEU, percentage, age, and loading capacity distribution from 2015 to 2025 [42][45][49]. 3.4 Dynamic Shipping Capacity - Shipping Schedule: There are charts showing the total shipping capacity deployment from Shanghai to European base ports from week 13 to week 28, as well as the capacity deployments of different alliances and shipping companies [57][59][61]. - Desulfurization Tower Installation: There are data and charts on the container ships with installed, being - installed desulfurization towers in terms of TEU, number of ships, and percentage from 2018 to 2025 [68]. - Average Speed and Idle Capacity: There are data and charts on the average speed and idle capacity of container ships in different loading capacities and time periods [72][76].