有色金属基础周报：海外地缘风险快速升温，有色金属走势整体高位续升-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall trend of non - ferrous metals is rising at a high level, with overseas geopolitical risks rapidly increasing. The macro - environment has both supporting and restrictive factors for non - ferrous metals prices. Different metals have different trends and influencing factors, with some showing high - level shocks, some adjusting, and some continuing to rise [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Variety Viewpoint Summaries Copper - Trend Status: High - level shock in the range of 98,500 - 105,000 [2]. - Market Viewpoint: Supported by strong macro - factors such as China's GDP growth in 2025, loose monetary policy in 2026, and a 40% increase in power grid investment during the "15th Five - Year Plan", as well as overseas geopolitical risks, a weak US dollar, and strong precious metals. However, the fundamentals are weak, with falling ore processing fees, increasing smelting losses, and low consumption due to the off - season and high copper prices. Social inventory has increased to 335,200 tons, and spot transactions are light. It is expected that copper prices will fluctuate at a high level with limited upside potential. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to inventory changes and policy implementation progress [2]. Aluminum - Trend Status: High - level adjustment [2]. - Market Viewpoint: Alumina production capacity has increased, and inventory has also risen. The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains stable. New production capacity is being put into operation. The downstream processing industry's start - up rate has increased slightly, but overall demand is entering the off - season. Aluminum ingot inventory continues to accumulate, but the accumulation speed has slowed down. Aluminum prices are affected by capital sentiment and are expected to remain in high - level shock in the short term [2]. Zinc - Trend Status: Stabilize and rebound, high - level shock [2]. - Market Viewpoint: Zinc concentrate processing fees are at a low level, and production may shrink in January due to some smelter maintenance. Consumption has entered the traditional off - season, and downstream acceptance of high - priced zinc ingots is low. The social inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions in China is 119,000 tons, remaining basically unchanged from last week. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will maintain high - level shock [2]. Lead - Trend Status: Range shock between 16,800 - 17,200 [2]. - Market Viewpoint: LME and COMEX lead inventories have increased, while Shanghai Futures Exchange lead inventories have decreased. Lead prices have fallen, and downstream transactions have weakened, putting pressure on futures prices. In the long term, lead prices may show a shock - consolidation trend, and it is recommended to operate within the range [2]. Nickel - Trend Status: High - level shock [3]. - Market Viewpoint: Affected by news from Indonesia, nickel prices are strong, but the spot inventory is accumulating, and the fundamentals are weak. It is expected that the upward momentum of nickel prices is limited. It is recommended to wait and see for both nickel and stainless steel [3]. Tin - Trend Status: Return to an upward trend [3]. - Market Viewpoint: Supply remains tight, and prices are strongly fluctuating. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover, and downstream demand is in rigid need. Overseas raw material supply disturbances need to be noted. It is expected that tin prices will continue to rise, and it is recommended to hold long positions and pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [3]. Industrial Silicon - Trend Status: Wide - range shock [3]. - Market Viewpoint: Production and inventory of industrial silicon have changed. The production of polysilicon has decreased, and the photovoltaic industry has mixed trends. If a large - scale industrial silicon producer in Xinjiang cuts production by half, it will drive up industrial silicon prices. Polysilicon is expected to fluctuate at the current position [3]. Carbonate Lithium - Trend Status: Return to an upward trend [3]. - Market Viewpoint: Affected by mining permit disturbances in Yichun, supply - side risks exist. Downstream demand for exports is strong, and inventory is decreasing. It is expected that prices will continue to show a strong shock [3]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Data China - In 2025, China's GDP increased by 5% year - on - year, with a 4.5% increase in the fourth quarter. The real estate development investment decreased by 17.2% year - on - year, and the fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year. In December 2025, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and the LPR remained unchanged in January 2026 [13][15][16][18]. USA - The average weekly new employment in the US ADP was 8,000, lower than the previous value of 11,750. The PCE price index in November 2025 met expectations, and the real GDP quarterly growth rate in the third quarter was revised up to 4.4%, the fastest in two years [19][21][22]. 3.3 Next Week's Macroeconomic Data Calendar - A series of economic data from the US and the Eurozone are scheduled to be released next week, including the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, the Dallas Fed Business Activity Index, consumer confidence indexes, and inflation - related data [24].