新能源周报：抢出口需求带动碳酸锂淡季去库-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [7] - Polysilicon: Wait - and - see [8] - Lithium carbonate: Bullish [79] 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term supply disturbances of industrial silicon and the trend of demand contraction may increase inventory depletion, but it is difficult to reverse the oversupply situation in the short term, and the price is expected to oscillate. For polysilicon, due to poor contract liquidity, investors are advised to be cautious. Lithium carbonate inventory has been substantially depleted, and the fundamentals support the price, which is expected to continue to be strong [7][8][79]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon (SI) Supply - The national weekly output is 7.62 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78%; the number of open furnaces is 217, a week - on - week decrease of 4. The December output is 39.71 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15% and a year - on - year increase of 19.75%; the January production schedule is 37.78 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.87% and a year - on - year increase of 24.26% [7]. Demand - For polysilicon, the weekly output is 2.04 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.40%. The December output is 11.55 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.79% and a year - on - year increase of 18.71%; the January production schedule is 10.78 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.67% and a year - on - year increase of 14.19%. For organic silicon, the DMC weekly output is 4.29 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.61% [7]. Inventory - The explicit inventory is 51.78 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.60% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.86%. The industry inventory is 45.30 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22%. The warehouse receipt inventory is 6.49 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16.44% [7]. Cost and Profit - The national average cost per ton is 8998 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62%; the gross profit per ton is - 46 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 35 yuan/ton. The gross profit in the main producing areas is basically stable [7]. Investment View - The price is expected to oscillate, and the unilateral trading is bearish [7]. Polysilicon (PS) Supply - The national weekly output is 2.04 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.40%. The December output is 11.55 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.79% and a year - on - year increase of 18.71%; the January production schedule is 10.78 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.67% and a year - on - year increase of 14.19% [8]. Demand - The silicon wafer weekly output is 10.95GW, a week - on - week increase of 4.79%. The December silicon wafer output is 43.9GW, a month - on - month decrease of 19.26% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.01%; the January production schedule is 45.2GW, a month - on - month increase of 2.96% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.74% [8]. Inventory - The factory inventory is 32.08 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.25%. The registered warehouse receipts are 20550 tons, a week - on - week increase of 52.22% [8]. Cost and Profit - The national average cost per ton is 42969 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 0.41%; the gross profit per ton is 16241 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 174 yuan [8]. Investment View - Due to poor contract liquidity, investors are advised to wait and see and be cautious about price fluctuations and liquidity risks [8]. Lithium Carbonate (LC) Supply - The national weekly output is 2.22 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.72%. The December output is 9.92 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.04% and a year - on - year increase of 41.00%; the January production schedule is about 9.80 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.24% and a year - on - year increase of 56.78% [79]. Import - In December, the lithium carbonate import volume is 2.40 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.77% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.43%. The lithium concentrate import volume is 62.80 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.31% and a year - on - year increase of 30.22% [79]. Material Demand - For iron - lithium materials, the weekly output is 9.86 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.39%. The December output is 40.39 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.17% and a year - on - year increase of 46.00%; the January production schedule is 36.34 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.03% and a year - on - year increase of 44.29%. For ternary materials, the weekly output is 1.80 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.88% [79]. Terminal Demand - In December, the new energy vehicle production is 171.80 million, a month - on - month decrease of 8.60% and a year - on - year increase of 12.29%; the sales volume is 171.00 million, a month - on - month decrease of 6.18% and a year - on - year increase of 7.14%. From January to November, the cumulative winning bid power/scale of energy storage is 59.48GW/160.39GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 70.53%/118.93% [79]. Inventory - The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 10.89 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.71%. The lithium salt factory inventory is 1.98 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.54%. The warehouse receipt inventory is 2.82 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.50% [79]. Cost and Profit - For lithium extraction from purchased ore, the cash production cost of lithium mica is 149738 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.62%; the production profit is 9003 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4467 yuan/ton. The cash production cost of lithium spodumene is 154692 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.87%; the production profit is 7644 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4163 yuan/ton [79]. Investment View - The price is expected to continue to be strong, and the unilateral trading is bullish [79].